Odds makers have this one as LSU by between 3.5 to 4.5.
That means, minus the homefield advantage, this game is a toss-up in their eyes. They don't make a living getting that kind of thing wrong. If I were a betting man, I'd sit this one out.
But I don't need some Vegas numbers guy to tell me this game has all the potential to be a nail-biter. Here's all you need to know: LSU is a talent-rich team struggling with young QBs and an underperforming defense; Ole Miss is at the apogee of the Orgeron recruiting classes and has a good (if slightly nutty - pun intended) coach and all the confidence in the world.
This game is NOT going to be boring. This I would place money on. In Kirston Pittman's 6-year LSU football career, the scores have been 17-14 (LSU), 27-24 (LSU), 40-7 (LSU), 23-20 OT (LSU), and 41-24 (LSU). Of the two lopsided wins, the first was thanks to an absolutely dominant LSU defense, and the second was a bit closer than the score thanks to - in contrast - a floundering LSU defense that gave up 466 yards of offense but made big turnovers happen when they needed them.
I'd do a detailed matchup comparison for this game, but it's fruitless (and I'm - ahem - busy). Both teams, honestly, are talented enough everywhere on the field (and unpredictable enough as well) to beat the other team.
Here's what I will say.
Jevan Sneed > Jarrett Lee
Ole Miss O-Line = LSU D-Line
LSU O-Line > Ole Miss D-Line
Everyone's Special teams >> LSU Special Teams (minus Colt David)
LSU Playmakers > Ole Miss Playmakers (just barely, and maybe homerish)
Key matchup? On both sides, the QB versus the second level defense. Whoever wins that, wins the game.
Doesn't make you feel very confident, does it? Well, here's some things to hope for.
Jarrett Lee is (hopefully) exiting the darkness and entering the light. After the hell that was the first 38 minutes of the Troy game, he and the coaches now know that he's got the talent and the gonads to come right back from stupid mistakes to cram it down the defense's throats. Lord knows he's got the talent around him to help him do it.
LSU has yet to put a complete football game together this season - not even close. This may (hopefully) be that game.
The emotion will (hopefully) be on LSU's side. Particularly on defense, there are a lot of seniors playing their last game in Tiger Stadium. They'll be looking to exit the stage having handed Ole Miss an ass kicking. And the fans are going to start drinkin' Friday night for this one. So you know they'll be fired up.
O-line is healthy. D-line is healthy. Hell, everyone but Hatch is healthy. Hopefully, that will pay huge dividends in the fourth quarter again.
LSU is (hopefully) positioned for the Cotton Bowl and the team won't want to lose that opportunity for something on the 2008 side of New Years Day.
The seniors have (hopefully) had enough of losing, thank you very much, for one season. No one on this team - not even Kirston Pittman - has lost more than 3 games in a season as a Tiger. Pretty cool.
So, be hopeful. Odds are this is going to be a close one. I say Vegas is right and the home field advantage carries the day.
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
GAMEDAY! Here's My Preview...
LSU's Offense vs. Georgia's Defense
The Bulldogs are tough against the run and relatively porous against the pass. Georgia is tops in the SEC in run defense, allowing only 62 yards per game. That's - not a lot. LSU needs to run the football to open up the passing game for Lee. And LSU has the backs to do it. Charles Scott and Keiland Williams provide a potent rotation, along with Murphy and Holliday. By the second half, LSU's running game should still be relatively fresh, where the UGA defense will hopefully have tired a bit. Florida took the running game away by jumping to a huge early lead. If Georgia takes the running game away by force, the end result could be a long afternoon for Tiger fans.
Because, although Georgia isn't great in pass defense, LSU has some challenges throwing the football. Sure, on paper, LSU has the fourth best passing efficiency in the SEC. And Lee has, in places, been very good. But he's also thrown 7 picks, two for TDs. And the LSU receivers have dropped enough important passes to cause me to wonder about the validity of LSU's passing threat. One positive note in all of this is that LSU has not allowed a lot of sacks this year. If Lee can get enough time, and the receivers can hang onto the football, then the passing game might neutralize Georgia's stout run defense.
Advantage: Even
LSU's Defense vs. Georgia's Offense
Knowshon Moreno is a great offensive weapon. To paraphrase Les Miles during a couple of interviews this week, he's going to get some yardage today. He's elusive, fast, and can catch. And Georgia has a very good fullback who has NFL scouts looking intently at him. LSU has been inconsistent against the run this year, but has the potential to be stingy in the middle. Teams have, however, had some success taking advantage of over-pursuit around the ends. If LSU is able to keep Moreno under control, Georgia's offense will be significantly less effective. But certainly not anemic.
Matthew Stafford is the best QB LSU's defense will face during the regular season. Although not having the kind of dominant year that some expected (ala Colt McCoy at Texas), Stafford is a three year starter with a cannon for an arm and all the measurables that pro scouts look for. He's got a 10/5 TD/Int ratio, which is pretty good, and completes over 60% of his passes. He leads the conference in passing yards per game and is second only to Tebow in QB efficiency rating. Stafford has AJ Green to throw to, a tall and speedy freshman who leads the SEC in reception yards per game. Massaquoi is also still around and will draw some attention from the Tiger secondary. LSU has been vulnerable to the pass all year long, giving up an average of nearly 200 yards per game. LSU will need to disrupt Stafford in the pocket and put him on his back enough to keep him off his game. If the line can get four or five sacks in this game, and another eight hurries or so, then LSU's pass defense should be able to step up to the challenge. If Stafford has time to throw, it will be a long afternoon.
Advantage: Georgia
Special Teams
Although Brad Dalfrey has a reasonable punting average (43 ypp), his performance against South Carolina was scary at times. He'll have to do better this week. Because Georgia is frighteningly good and deep at punt returning. Georgia has the 4 of the top 10 punt returners in the SEC, with Prince Miller leading the pack (44.7 yard average on 3 returns). Altogether, Miller, Reshad Jones, Asher Allen, and Knowshon Moreno have averaged 24 yards per return. LSU's Trindon Holliday, the second leading punt returner in the SEC, averages 23 yards. There's absolutely no reason to punt the ball to any of Georgia's return men. If Dalfrey can manage it, he should angle for the sidelines every time.
The rest of the special teams play seems even.
Advantage: Georgia
Other Factors
LSU just doesn't lose much in Baton Rouge on a Saturday. In years past, day games were considered a hex at LSU. While noone really likes a day game (tailgating reasons, mostly), the hex has long been lifted. LSU is something like 10-2 in day home games lately. The last defeat LSU suffered at home on a Saturday was almost 30 games ago, to Florida I believe. So home field advantage is very real in Tiger Stadium.
LSU has had its share of penalties this year, but nothing compared to Georgia. The Bulldogs are by far the most penalized team in the SEC, with 10 flags for 80+ yards per game.
And, while LSU has it's share of dings and bruises, Georgia is suffering mightily right now with a lot of injuries and some players playing hurt.
Advantage: LSU
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. UGA is going to send the house against Lee and make him throw under pressure. Crowton's gameplan and the OL have to set Lee up with good, quick options so he can avoid throwing another pick-6. Lee needs to have a solid game. Not great. Just solid with no pick-6.
2. LSU needs to score >21 points. I don't think LSU's defense will be able to stifle Moreno, Stafford, Green and company. LSU needs to win the time of possession war and score in each quarter.
3. No UGA punt returns for TD. Quick scores by UGA will be tough to make up.
4. LSU needs to play with far fewer errors (turnovers, penalties, dropped passes) than in previous games. This is the week to put it all together.
WRAP UP
LSU O vs. Georgia D: Toss up
LSU D vs. Georgia O: Georgia
Special Teams: Georgia
Other Stuff: LSU
My Call: The Vegas boyz have this one as LSU by 1, with a 40.5 over/under. What that really says is, they think Georgia is the better team, but Tiger Stadium is a tough place to visit. My Wrap Up agrees.
LSU 27, UGA 24 (Because, afterall, I'm a purple and gold homer.)
The Bulldogs are tough against the run and relatively porous against the pass. Georgia is tops in the SEC in run defense, allowing only 62 yards per game. That's - not a lot. LSU needs to run the football to open up the passing game for Lee. And LSU has the backs to do it. Charles Scott and Keiland Williams provide a potent rotation, along with Murphy and Holliday. By the second half, LSU's running game should still be relatively fresh, where the UGA defense will hopefully have tired a bit. Florida took the running game away by jumping to a huge early lead. If Georgia takes the running game away by force, the end result could be a long afternoon for Tiger fans.
Because, although Georgia isn't great in pass defense, LSU has some challenges throwing the football. Sure, on paper, LSU has the fourth best passing efficiency in the SEC. And Lee has, in places, been very good. But he's also thrown 7 picks, two for TDs. And the LSU receivers have dropped enough important passes to cause me to wonder about the validity of LSU's passing threat. One positive note in all of this is that LSU has not allowed a lot of sacks this year. If Lee can get enough time, and the receivers can hang onto the football, then the passing game might neutralize Georgia's stout run defense.
Advantage: Even
LSU's Defense vs. Georgia's Offense
Knowshon Moreno is a great offensive weapon. To paraphrase Les Miles during a couple of interviews this week, he's going to get some yardage today. He's elusive, fast, and can catch. And Georgia has a very good fullback who has NFL scouts looking intently at him. LSU has been inconsistent against the run this year, but has the potential to be stingy in the middle. Teams have, however, had some success taking advantage of over-pursuit around the ends. If LSU is able to keep Moreno under control, Georgia's offense will be significantly less effective. But certainly not anemic.
Matthew Stafford is the best QB LSU's defense will face during the regular season. Although not having the kind of dominant year that some expected (ala Colt McCoy at Texas), Stafford is a three year starter with a cannon for an arm and all the measurables that pro scouts look for. He's got a 10/5 TD/Int ratio, which is pretty good, and completes over 60% of his passes. He leads the conference in passing yards per game and is second only to Tebow in QB efficiency rating. Stafford has AJ Green to throw to, a tall and speedy freshman who leads the SEC in reception yards per game. Massaquoi is also still around and will draw some attention from the Tiger secondary. LSU has been vulnerable to the pass all year long, giving up an average of nearly 200 yards per game. LSU will need to disrupt Stafford in the pocket and put him on his back enough to keep him off his game. If the line can get four or five sacks in this game, and another eight hurries or so, then LSU's pass defense should be able to step up to the challenge. If Stafford has time to throw, it will be a long afternoon.
Advantage: Georgia
Special Teams
Although Brad Dalfrey has a reasonable punting average (43 ypp), his performance against South Carolina was scary at times. He'll have to do better this week. Because Georgia is frighteningly good and deep at punt returning. Georgia has the 4 of the top 10 punt returners in the SEC, with Prince Miller leading the pack (44.7 yard average on 3 returns). Altogether, Miller, Reshad Jones, Asher Allen, and Knowshon Moreno have averaged 24 yards per return. LSU's Trindon Holliday, the second leading punt returner in the SEC, averages 23 yards. There's absolutely no reason to punt the ball to any of Georgia's return men. If Dalfrey can manage it, he should angle for the sidelines every time.
The rest of the special teams play seems even.
Advantage: Georgia
Other Factors
LSU just doesn't lose much in Baton Rouge on a Saturday. In years past, day games were considered a hex at LSU. While noone really likes a day game (tailgating reasons, mostly), the hex has long been lifted. LSU is something like 10-2 in day home games lately. The last defeat LSU suffered at home on a Saturday was almost 30 games ago, to Florida I believe. So home field advantage is very real in Tiger Stadium.
LSU has had its share of penalties this year, but nothing compared to Georgia. The Bulldogs are by far the most penalized team in the SEC, with 10 flags for 80+ yards per game.
And, while LSU has it's share of dings and bruises, Georgia is suffering mightily right now with a lot of injuries and some players playing hurt.
Advantage: LSU
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. UGA is going to send the house against Lee and make him throw under pressure. Crowton's gameplan and the OL have to set Lee up with good, quick options so he can avoid throwing another pick-6. Lee needs to have a solid game. Not great. Just solid with no pick-6.
2. LSU needs to score >21 points. I don't think LSU's defense will be able to stifle Moreno, Stafford, Green and company. LSU needs to win the time of possession war and score in each quarter.
3. No UGA punt returns for TD. Quick scores by UGA will be tough to make up.
4. LSU needs to play with far fewer errors (turnovers, penalties, dropped passes) than in previous games. This is the week to put it all together.
WRAP UP
LSU O vs. Georgia D: Toss up
LSU D vs. Georgia O: Georgia
Special Teams: Georgia
Other Stuff: LSU
My Call: The Vegas boyz have this one as LSU by 1, with a 40.5 over/under. What that really says is, they think Georgia is the better team, but Tiger Stadium is a tough place to visit. My Wrap Up agrees.
LSU 27, UGA 24 (Because, afterall, I'm a purple and gold homer.)
Thursday, September 25, 2008
PREDICTION: Mississippi State
As I sit and marvel at the spectacle of Oregon State making USC sweat, it's tough to devote a ton of thought to this game. Not because I'm glued to the Oregon State game. I'm not. In fact, other than the possibility of LSU rising in the polls, I really don't care all that much about USC. The bullshit that flies back and forth between Baton Rouge and Los Angeles is, to me, a bunch of silliness. Really. Who give a shit if they claim a non-BCS championship? If Phil Steele crowned his own national champ this year and it was different than the BCS team, would you care? Exactly. The AP poll is interesting but irrelevant.
See. Tough to focus on Mississippi State. I just don't think this game is going to be close at all.
Anyway. Don't fear. Les Miles and the Tigers won't have a focus problem. Florida is two weeks away, after a Bye week. Miles has already said he's throwing out the MSU/Georgia Tech film. He's focusing on what MSU was able to do against Auburn, particularly on defense. So, I don't think focus will be an issue.
But let's be serious. LSU owns Mississippi State. In every sense of the word. Last year's 45-0 waxing was not an unusual result for this series in recent years. LSU has consistently outscored MSU by large margins. And, if I have my stats right, the Tigers have won 16 of the last 17 contests.
This year's Croomdogs are not playing like last year's variety. The defense still has it's moments. But they're just moments. Dixon is still a good runningback. Pegues is still a good return man and decent DB. But that's about it.
Keys to the game:
1. LSU's defensive line will own MSU's offensive line. Early. And often.
2. LSU's defensive backs will have to fix some of the coverage mistakes to avoid giving gifts to an otherwise poor MSU passing attack.
3. LSU's punt team and kickoff team will have to find a way to keep Pegues contained. He's pretty good.
4. LSU's RBs and OL need to establish the running game early to take the pressure off of Lee early. Give him a quarter to establish his confidence.
5. Jarrett Lee needs to play a relatively error-free game. TD>Ints. >55% completions. >200 yards passing. He does that and LSU will roll.
Concerns:
A. Injuries. Knock on wood, LSU is pretty unscathed right now. Hatch is probably still recovering a bit, and Beckwith is still out. But otherwise, LSU is good. They need to stay that way. Because after the Bye week, the Tigers have Florida and South Carolina on the road, followed by Georgia at home.
B. LSU QB. Jarrett Lee needs a good, solid game. If Lee struggles, MSU has a good enough defense to stack the box and make the running game much more difficult. And LSU needs to put Miss State away, and early. Because Jordan Jefferson needs some quality PT before Florida, just in case.
Prediction: LSU 24-0 at halftime, and LSU 49-0 final score.
See. Tough to focus on Mississippi State. I just don't think this game is going to be close at all.
Anyway. Don't fear. Les Miles and the Tigers won't have a focus problem. Florida is two weeks away, after a Bye week. Miles has already said he's throwing out the MSU/Georgia Tech film. He's focusing on what MSU was able to do against Auburn, particularly on defense. So, I don't think focus will be an issue.
But let's be serious. LSU owns Mississippi State. In every sense of the word. Last year's 45-0 waxing was not an unusual result for this series in recent years. LSU has consistently outscored MSU by large margins. And, if I have my stats right, the Tigers have won 16 of the last 17 contests.
This year's Croomdogs are not playing like last year's variety. The defense still has it's moments. But they're just moments. Dixon is still a good runningback. Pegues is still a good return man and decent DB. But that's about it.
Keys to the game:
1. LSU's defensive line will own MSU's offensive line. Early. And often.
2. LSU's defensive backs will have to fix some of the coverage mistakes to avoid giving gifts to an otherwise poor MSU passing attack.
3. LSU's punt team and kickoff team will have to find a way to keep Pegues contained. He's pretty good.
4. LSU's RBs and OL need to establish the running game early to take the pressure off of Lee early. Give him a quarter to establish his confidence.
5. Jarrett Lee needs to play a relatively error-free game. TD>Ints. >55% completions. >200 yards passing. He does that and LSU will roll.
Concerns:
A. Injuries. Knock on wood, LSU is pretty unscathed right now. Hatch is probably still recovering a bit, and Beckwith is still out. But otherwise, LSU is good. They need to stay that way. Because after the Bye week, the Tigers have Florida and South Carolina on the road, followed by Georgia at home.
B. LSU QB. Jarrett Lee needs a good, solid game. If Lee struggles, MSU has a good enough defense to stack the box and make the running game much more difficult. And LSU needs to put Miss State away, and early. Because Jordan Jefferson needs some quality PT before Florida, just in case.
Prediction: LSU 24-0 at halftime, and LSU 49-0 final score.
Friday, September 19, 2008
AUBURN PREDICTION: Quickie
LSU will win this game with far more ease than many folks are thinking.
Here's why.
1. Auburn's offense is bad. It won't get that much better in a week.
2. LSU's offense is good and hasn't been let out of it's cage yet. That changes on Saturday.
3. Andrew Hatch is a better QB than he's getting credit for. I predict he suprises some folks.
4. LSU's defense is great, and deep, and the young DBs are playing better than expected (at least by me). As long as we don't lose many more LBs...
5. Auburn's defense is not as deep as LSU's and our offense will wear them down in the fourth quarter.
Stuff I'm worried about.
1. Quarterback play. If I'm wrong about Hatch, then it's a toss up. I could easily be wrong.
2. Special teams, particularly punting. If this is a defensive struggle, our punting game could very well be the weak link that breaks the chain.
PREDICTION:
Close game at halftime, LSU by 14 or more at game's end. LSU 24, Auburn 10.
Here's why.
1. Auburn's offense is bad. It won't get that much better in a week.
2. LSU's offense is good and hasn't been let out of it's cage yet. That changes on Saturday.
3. Andrew Hatch is a better QB than he's getting credit for. I predict he suprises some folks.
4. LSU's defense is great, and deep, and the young DBs are playing better than expected (at least by me). As long as we don't lose many more LBs...
5. Auburn's defense is not as deep as LSU's and our offense will wear them down in the fourth quarter.
Stuff I'm worried about.
1. Quarterback play. If I'm wrong about Hatch, then it's a toss up. I could easily be wrong.
2. Special teams, particularly punting. If this is a defensive struggle, our punting game could very well be the weak link that breaks the chain.
PREDICTION:
Close game at halftime, LSU by 14 or more at game's end. LSU 24, Auburn 10.
Friday, November 30, 2007
PREDICTION: LSU SEC CHAMPS!! 47 - 27
Which LSU defense shows up Saturday? Will it be the swiss cheese model that Arkansas pounded, or the impacted colon model that Virginia Tech just couldn't pass through? I think the answer to that question will have a lot to do with the outcome of this game. That, and the LSU QB situation.
LSU DEFENSE: Tennessee will score on LSU's defense. Ainge has been playing well, and the Vols have a very good offensive line. I think Pelini will make them prove they can protect against the LSU front four, which I think the Vols will be able to do. Then, Pelini will start bringing the heat and force Tennessee to run the football. The Vols are averaging about 150 ypg, and LSU hasn't exactly been great lately at stopping the run (understatement alert). However, Arian Foster is not McFadden, nor is he Ole Miss' Brent Schaeffer. If LSU can shut Ainge down, 150 yards rushing won't be nearly enough anyway. Look for a big game from Steltz and Chad Jones, and hopefully from Pittman and Jackson as well.
VOL DEFENSE: Tennessee has, statistically, the second-worst defense in the conference. Only Ole Miss allows more yardage and only Kentucky allows more points. If LSU is able to protect the QB (whoever shows up) and present a balanced attack, they'll score close to 50. Look for the Vols to take risks to get at Flynn/Perrilloux, hoping that they won't be poised or accurate enough to make them respect the offense. Our O-line has been OK at protection, but not great. And even though the Tigers haven't been sacked a LOT this year, Flynn has had to throw on the run ... A LOT.
I hate to even mention special teams play. This, like penalties and a bad string of interceptions, could keep the Vols in the game and possibly even win it for them. Thankfully, the Vols have only returned one punt for a TD this season and zero kickoffs. Hopefully, they won't improve that stat. But against LSU's "coverage by colander", you never can tell.
LSU QUARTERBACK: How hurt is Matt Flynn? And if he's too hurt to throw effectively, should he even play? The Vols will figure out five minutes into the game if he's too gimpy to throw. If Perrilloux plays, will he be able to pull a Matt Flynn vs. Miami impersonation and lead the offense, business like, in a relatively error-free effort? Will he get a bunch of delay of game penalties and fumble the ball, or throw into coverage (not that Flynn hasn't done that as the starter)? Quarterback is a big question in this game.
Then, of course, there's the coaching circus. That should help...
My gut feel - which has been piss poor lately - tells me that LSU will jump on the Vols early and then hold on for an easy win. Tennessee's defense won't be able to keep the LSU offense off the field enough to give their own offense sufficient chances for big plays. And Tennessee will turn the ball over more than LSU, causing an even tougher problem for the Vol defense. The only mitigating factor could be the LSU penalty circus - if that shows up in full force, then give Tennessee 9 of LSU's points and call it 38 - 36.
Either way, LSU wins and prays like hell that West Virginia overlooks Pittsburgh....ROWR! (Don't hold your breath now, ya hear!)
LSU DEFENSE: Tennessee will score on LSU's defense. Ainge has been playing well, and the Vols have a very good offensive line. I think Pelini will make them prove they can protect against the LSU front four, which I think the Vols will be able to do. Then, Pelini will start bringing the heat and force Tennessee to run the football. The Vols are averaging about 150 ypg, and LSU hasn't exactly been great lately at stopping the run (understatement alert). However, Arian Foster is not McFadden, nor is he Ole Miss' Brent Schaeffer. If LSU can shut Ainge down, 150 yards rushing won't be nearly enough anyway. Look for a big game from Steltz and Chad Jones, and hopefully from Pittman and Jackson as well.
VOL DEFENSE: Tennessee has, statistically, the second-worst defense in the conference. Only Ole Miss allows more yardage and only Kentucky allows more points. If LSU is able to protect the QB (whoever shows up) and present a balanced attack, they'll score close to 50. Look for the Vols to take risks to get at Flynn/Perrilloux, hoping that they won't be poised or accurate enough to make them respect the offense. Our O-line has been OK at protection, but not great. And even though the Tigers haven't been sacked a LOT this year, Flynn has had to throw on the run ... A LOT.
I hate to even mention special teams play. This, like penalties and a bad string of interceptions, could keep the Vols in the game and possibly even win it for them. Thankfully, the Vols have only returned one punt for a TD this season and zero kickoffs. Hopefully, they won't improve that stat. But against LSU's "coverage by colander", you never can tell.
LSU QUARTERBACK: How hurt is Matt Flynn? And if he's too hurt to throw effectively, should he even play? The Vols will figure out five minutes into the game if he's too gimpy to throw. If Perrilloux plays, will he be able to pull a Matt Flynn vs. Miami impersonation and lead the offense, business like, in a relatively error-free effort? Will he get a bunch of delay of game penalties and fumble the ball, or throw into coverage (not that Flynn hasn't done that as the starter)? Quarterback is a big question in this game.
Then, of course, there's the coaching circus. That should help...
My gut feel - which has been piss poor lately - tells me that LSU will jump on the Vols early and then hold on for an easy win. Tennessee's defense won't be able to keep the LSU offense off the field enough to give their own offense sufficient chances for big plays. And Tennessee will turn the ball over more than LSU, causing an even tougher problem for the Vol defense. The only mitigating factor could be the LSU penalty circus - if that shows up in full force, then give Tennessee 9 of LSU's points and call it 38 - 36.
Either way, LSU wins and prays like hell that West Virginia overlooks Pittsburgh....ROWR! (Don't hold your breath now, ya hear!)
Friday, November 23, 2007
PREDICTION: LSU 41, Arkansas 35
I wasn't planning to make a prediction for this game. Oh, well.
Thing is, this score just keeps sticking in my brain. So, why not.
I didn't do so well with the Ole Miss prediction, but we won so who cares, right?
Here's how I see this one.
INTANGIBLES. It's senior day, in Tiger Stadium, and LSU is the #1 team in the country and playing the next three games for all the marbles. Arkansas, on the other hand, simply wants "The Boot" back. Oh, and Houston Nutt may or may not be hitting the road at the end of this season. LSU +1
LSU O vs HAWGS D. The Tigers have played MUCH better defenses this year and scored well. I don't see the Hawg defense stepping up for an entire game. LSU won't score at will, but they will be able to put an average number of points on the board, if not slightly more. Fortunately for LSU, "average" is 39 points. LSU +1
LSU D vs HAWGS O. This is the big question. Will LSUs slightly banged up, underperforming (of late) defense be able to keep McFadden from putting up a 300 yard game? Will Casey Dick be able to repeat his Miss St passing performance? He hasn't been a prolific quarterback, and he hasn't been sacked much this year. Of course, he also hasn't had a single positive rushing yard all year. Look for this to be an even matchup, with a couple of turnovers and a couple of big plays for McFadden. EVEN.
SPECIAL TEAMS. Tough to say. Besides Colt David and Fisher, LSU's special teams have been average at best and scary at times. Holliday's return for a TD against Ole Miss was a great change of pace. Maybe we'll see something like that again. Arkansas doesn't seem to have especially great special teams, either. Although, Felix Jones HAS run two kickoffs back for TDs.
EVEN.
LSU should win this game, but unless the defense steps up and plays a game close to their performances against VT or MSU, expect Arkansas to find the end zone.
PREDICTION: McFadden 125 yards, Jones 65 yards, Dick 100 yards, 2 interceptions, 2 sacks.
LSU 41, Arkansas 35.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
PREDICTION: LSU 48, Ole Miss 9
The line on this game is LSU by 18.5. Here's why I think this is generous for Ole Miss.
First, LSU is a frighteningly talented, battle tested and relatively healthy football team. And Ole Miss is just embattled.
Second, LSU has been tested by teams with a LOT more talent than the Rebs. And only one of those teams, led by a legitimate Heisman mentionable, could hang around long enough to pull off a 3 OT upset. Florida, Auburn and Alabama succumbed. Virginia Tech was embarrassed. Mississippi State, a team with a chance at a bowl bid, was embarrassed. Tulane and LA Tech, after burning their emotion like a chunk of phosphorus, fizzled under the pressure of LSU's depth, strength, conditioning, and pure talent.
Third, IF Ole Miss plays four quarters of over-the-top football AND IF LSU can't find it's collective ass with both hands, then the game will be A LOT CLOSER than 18 points. However, if EITHER of those two things do not occur, then LSU will beat Ole Miss by more than 3 touchdowns. If LSU plays close to their potential and Ole Miss can't sustain an out-of-body level of performance for more than a half, then LSU will achieve my predicted victory, winning in a runaway.
Many folks on the internet blogs and fan forums are keying on the fact that Ole Miss considers this game their season defining moment. So they're giving them points for emotion. Then they're giving them points for being the home team. Then they're giving them points based on previous years' performances, where the Rebs kept the game close and scary for the Tigers. I say - SO WHAT! LSU has been highly ranked ALL YEAR LONG. Almost EVERY GAME this season has been THE BIG GAME for LSU's opponents. NO ONE has overlooked the Tigers this season.
Ole Miss won't hold LSU's very potent offense to less than 30 points. Ole Miss won't score more than 10 points on LSU's defense. Ole Miss' only hope is special teams play and interceptions, and I guarantee that was a huge focus for LSU this week.
In short, stand by for an emotional, crack-fueled Rebel rage fest in the first quarter, followed by a steady Tiger beat-down in the second quarter. Then, LSU opens up a gaping chest wound on the Rebs in the third quarter, and Ryan Perrilloux plays all of the fourth, has a great game, and pulls the plug.
Orgeron will learn: Fear the Hat!
First, LSU is a frighteningly talented, battle tested and relatively healthy football team. And Ole Miss is just embattled.
Second, LSU has been tested by teams with a LOT more talent than the Rebs. And only one of those teams, led by a legitimate Heisman mentionable, could hang around long enough to pull off a 3 OT upset. Florida, Auburn and Alabama succumbed. Virginia Tech was embarrassed. Mississippi State, a team with a chance at a bowl bid, was embarrassed. Tulane and LA Tech, after burning their emotion like a chunk of phosphorus, fizzled under the pressure of LSU's depth, strength, conditioning, and pure talent.
Third, IF Ole Miss plays four quarters of over-the-top football AND IF LSU can't find it's collective ass with both hands, then the game will be A LOT CLOSER than 18 points. However, if EITHER of those two things do not occur, then LSU will beat Ole Miss by more than 3 touchdowns. If LSU plays close to their potential and Ole Miss can't sustain an out-of-body level of performance for more than a half, then LSU will achieve my predicted victory, winning in a runaway.
Many folks on the internet blogs and fan forums are keying on the fact that Ole Miss considers this game their season defining moment. So they're giving them points for emotion. Then they're giving them points for being the home team. Then they're giving them points based on previous years' performances, where the Rebs kept the game close and scary for the Tigers. I say - SO WHAT! LSU has been highly ranked ALL YEAR LONG. Almost EVERY GAME this season has been THE BIG GAME for LSU's opponents. NO ONE has overlooked the Tigers this season.
Ole Miss won't hold LSU's very potent offense to less than 30 points. Ole Miss won't score more than 10 points on LSU's defense. Ole Miss' only hope is special teams play and interceptions, and I guarantee that was a huge focus for LSU this week.
In short, stand by for an emotional, crack-fueled Rebel rage fest in the first quarter, followed by a steady Tiger beat-down in the second quarter. Then, LSU opens up a gaping chest wound on the Rebs in the third quarter, and Ryan Perrilloux plays all of the fourth, has a great game, and pulls the plug.
Orgeron will learn: Fear the Hat!
Friday, November 9, 2007
Prediction: LSU 55, LA Tech 10
Has there been a quieter week of LSU football news? I'm so bored, I can't stand it. Even the bye week had more hype to it, thanks to the Varsity bar fight. Normally I can at least get a laugh or two slithering around the various fan forums. Not this week. Full-up, drool-caked yawn fest.
Here's hoping the Tigers found it easier to stay fired up and focused this week than their fan base has. I think the HUGE numbers of penalties and poor turnover ratio of the mid-season schedule provided a focal point for Coach Miles and the boyz this week. I have faith in that. I have no other choice. Cause if LA Tech surprises us tomorrow night, I may not be able to stand it.
Three Points to Ponder.
Here's hoping the Tigers found it easier to stay fired up and focused this week than their fan base has. I think the HUGE numbers of penalties and poor turnover ratio of the mid-season schedule provided a focal point for Coach Miles and the boyz this week. I have faith in that. I have no other choice. Cause if LA Tech surprises us tomorrow night, I may not be able to stand it.
Three Points to Ponder.
- Productive Offense. The Tigers started out the season so dominant on defense that it was difficult to imagine that fans would be counting on extremely productive offensive play to win games. Yet that is where we are, and thankfully, the offense is coming through in spades. Even despite being the most penalized team in the SEC, the Tiger offense is putting up 37.2 points and amassing 440 yards per game. Because Coach Miles and his staff have used damn near every weapon in their arsenal on offense, the individual stats don't stand up and scream, "We got it goin' on!" But the Tiger offense does have it goin' on. And the versatility and potency of the squad has only been marred when they stop themselves. Look for a clean game against Tech, LOTS of substitutions, and some big plays from K. Williams, Charles Scott, and the receiving corps. I see a 500 yard game with few punts and scoring at will.
- Ryan Perrilloux. I imagine the gameplan is to feature RP in the second half. He needs it. If he's going to stick around and be the helmsman next year, LA Tech is THE opportunity for him to distance the Varsity fight and his previous transgressions (real or perceived) and get on with gettin' on. This could be the "Tipping Point" game for RP - one way or the other. Let's face it - the offense is talented almost all the way through the second string. There's really no reason why the second half shouldn't be every bit as impressive offensively as the first. Good luck, RP. Though I have my doubts that you'll be able to grow up in time to seize the opportunity sitting at your feet, I sincerely hope you do. Time to be a man, brother.
- A preview of next year's defense. With Dorsey and Beckwith ailing, I expect to get a gander at some of the stars of next year's defense. For me, this is the only question about the 2008 Tigers, assuming no coaching changes (yeah, right - bye bye Pellini, enjoy Nebraska) and RP does the right thing. What will the defense look like? Who will step up on the LB corps? Will Tyson Jackson follow Glenn Dorsey into the NFL? Will we be able to replace our talented cornerbacks? Will Danny McCray learn to cover the pass as well as he plays the run? I'm all eyes and ears.
Too bad this one isn't on TV. I'll be listening to the game on the radio. And I predict it'll be as boring as this week has been. But that's a good thing. And if the penalties are under control, and we get to see (hear) some of next year's stars in action, I'll be bored AND satisfied.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Bama's Season So Far and a Prediction
Schedule
Alabama is 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the SEC, sharing the lead in the SEC West with the Tigers. Bama's wins came against Western Carolina (1-8), Vanderbilt (5-3), Arkansas (5-3), Houston (5-3), Mississippi (2-7), and Tennessee (5-3). Their losses came at home against Georgia (6-2) and on the road against Florida State (5-3) - two losses in a row.
Offense
Overall, the Tide have a reasonable offense, gaining 413 yards and 31.5 points per game. QB John Parker Wilson has had a decent year, throwing for over 1800 yards so far with a 119.4 rating. Wilson and Flynn match up fairly well across the board. Wilson's been protected fairly well all year, with only 14 sacks against the Tide, five less than LSU's 19 allowed. Offensively, this is Bama's key to the game. If the Bama offensive line can protect Wilson long enough to have a receiver break free, then they have talent enough to march down the field and score. Bama has a fairly balanced attack, but relies mostly on the passing game with D.J. Hall, statistically the most prolific receiver in the SEC, averaging nearly 100 yards per game. Bama's leading rusher is Terry Grant, an all-purpose back with 87 yards per game on the ground, 15 receiving, and 8 touchdowns.
Honestly, the Tide and the Tigers offenses have put up similar numbers all year. Total production is 413 to 435 (Tide to Tigers), points per game is 31.5 to 36.8, and turnovers are 9 to 8. LSU relies a bit more heavily on the run than Bama, but not significantly so.
Defense
From a defensive standpoint, the two teams aren't as similar. Bama's defense gives up 355 yards per game, 131 on the ground and 224 in the air. That's significantly more than LSU's defense allows (232, 72, 131). They give up an average of 21 points per game to LSU's 15. Bama has not been very effective shutting down opposing offenses, and they haven't pressured the QB very well with just 14 sacks this year, 5 of them against Houston. This may be the key to the game. If Bama cannot find a way to shut down LSU's running game and keep Matt Flynn off balance, they may find it hard to keep the Tigers from scoring on almost every possession. They may also find it tough to win enough time of possession to keep pace on the scoreboard when their talented offense finally gets the ball.
Others
Bama's special teams play can be dangerous, with some speedy punt return specialists in Lowe and Arenas. And Bama has the fewest penalties of any SEC school besides Vandy, averaging only 5.5 penalites per game. LSU averages almost 9.
Both teams have proven that they can play four quarters of football and seem to be focused on conditioning. LSU likely has an advantage in overall stregnth and speed.
One more interesting tidbit: when the Tigers and the Tide have met since 1970, the home team is 11-25-1. That's a .311 win percentage for the home team.
As a reminder, the game is in Tuscaloosa this year. We won't be paying attention to this stat next year - in case you're wondering.
Analysis
Overall, the biggest advantage LSU has in this game may be the road they've had to travel thus far. Where Bama's toughest game came in a loss to Georgia, LSU had to wade through Virginia Tech, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. The Tigers are battle-tested. Bama hasn't exactly had an Ohio State-style cake walk, but as it turns out the teams they've played (besides Georgia) aren't the class of the conference.
Both offensive units are capable of putting 40 points up without much difficulty. Defense, however, will be the key to this game. The Tigers need to rattle Wilson by creating hurries, hitting him hard enough to make him think of LaRon Landry last year, and sacking him 4 or 5 times. He hasn't faced a defense as tough as LSU's - not even close.
Conversely, Bama has not played tough defense this year. And they haven't had to play Florida, or Auburn (yet) or Kentucky. LSU's offense, however, has put up an average of 37 points against defenses that are much tougher than Bama's.
If LSU can minimize dumb penalties and continue an impressive turnover ratio, then this game won't be as close as some might think.
PREDICTION
Early Doucet, who is marching up the SEC reception leader board even after missing multiple games due to injury, will show up D.J. Hall and have a 100 yard plus night. Flynn will have another career game, completing over 60% of his throws and having a fine night running as well. Craig Steltz will lead tacklers again and may get his fifth pick of the year. And Patrick Fisher will punt less than 4 times. Unfortunately, one of those punts will be returned for a score in the first half. No matter, Tigers win easily now that they're in the downslope of a brutal SEC schedule.
LSU 41 Bama 17
Alabama is 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the SEC, sharing the lead in the SEC West with the Tigers. Bama's wins came against Western Carolina (1-8), Vanderbilt (5-3), Arkansas (5-3), Houston (5-3), Mississippi (2-7), and Tennessee (5-3). Their losses came at home against Georgia (6-2) and on the road against Florida State (5-3) - two losses in a row.
Offense
Overall, the Tide have a reasonable offense, gaining 413 yards and 31.5 points per game. QB John Parker Wilson has had a decent year, throwing for over 1800 yards so far with a 119.4 rating. Wilson and Flynn match up fairly well across the board. Wilson's been protected fairly well all year, with only 14 sacks against the Tide, five less than LSU's 19 allowed. Offensively, this is Bama's key to the game. If the Bama offensive line can protect Wilson long enough to have a receiver break free, then they have talent enough to march down the field and score. Bama has a fairly balanced attack, but relies mostly on the passing game with D.J. Hall, statistically the most prolific receiver in the SEC, averaging nearly 100 yards per game. Bama's leading rusher is Terry Grant, an all-purpose back with 87 yards per game on the ground, 15 receiving, and 8 touchdowns.
Honestly, the Tide and the Tigers offenses have put up similar numbers all year. Total production is 413 to 435 (Tide to Tigers), points per game is 31.5 to 36.8, and turnovers are 9 to 8. LSU relies a bit more heavily on the run than Bama, but not significantly so.
Defense
From a defensive standpoint, the two teams aren't as similar. Bama's defense gives up 355 yards per game, 131 on the ground and 224 in the air. That's significantly more than LSU's defense allows (232, 72, 131). They give up an average of 21 points per game to LSU's 15. Bama has not been very effective shutting down opposing offenses, and they haven't pressured the QB very well with just 14 sacks this year, 5 of them against Houston. This may be the key to the game. If Bama cannot find a way to shut down LSU's running game and keep Matt Flynn off balance, they may find it hard to keep the Tigers from scoring on almost every possession. They may also find it tough to win enough time of possession to keep pace on the scoreboard when their talented offense finally gets the ball.
Others
Bama's special teams play can be dangerous, with some speedy punt return specialists in Lowe and Arenas. And Bama has the fewest penalties of any SEC school besides Vandy, averaging only 5.5 penalites per game. LSU averages almost 9.
Both teams have proven that they can play four quarters of football and seem to be focused on conditioning. LSU likely has an advantage in overall stregnth and speed.
One more interesting tidbit: when the Tigers and the Tide have met since 1970, the home team is 11-25-1. That's a .311 win percentage for the home team.
As a reminder, the game is in Tuscaloosa this year. We won't be paying attention to this stat next year - in case you're wondering.
Analysis
Overall, the biggest advantage LSU has in this game may be the road they've had to travel thus far. Where Bama's toughest game came in a loss to Georgia, LSU had to wade through Virginia Tech, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. The Tigers are battle-tested. Bama hasn't exactly had an Ohio State-style cake walk, but as it turns out the teams they've played (besides Georgia) aren't the class of the conference.
Both offensive units are capable of putting 40 points up without much difficulty. Defense, however, will be the key to this game. The Tigers need to rattle Wilson by creating hurries, hitting him hard enough to make him think of LaRon Landry last year, and sacking him 4 or 5 times. He hasn't faced a defense as tough as LSU's - not even close.
Conversely, Bama has not played tough defense this year. And they haven't had to play Florida, or Auburn (yet) or Kentucky. LSU's offense, however, has put up an average of 37 points against defenses that are much tougher than Bama's.
If LSU can minimize dumb penalties and continue an impressive turnover ratio, then this game won't be as close as some might think.
PREDICTION
Early Doucet, who is marching up the SEC reception leader board even after missing multiple games due to injury, will show up D.J. Hall and have a 100 yard plus night. Flynn will have another career game, completing over 60% of his throws and having a fine night running as well. Craig Steltz will lead tacklers again and may get his fifth pick of the year. And Patrick Fisher will punt less than 4 times. Unfortunately, one of those punts will be returned for a score in the first half. No matter, Tigers win easily now that they're in the downslope of a brutal SEC schedule.
LSU 41 Bama 17
Thursday, October 4, 2007
PREDICTION: LSU 35, Florida 23
There's been a lot of talk in certain sections of the media and on the message boards (both LSU and Florida) about how LSU hasn't played anyone yet (which is a load of crap) and how the Tulane game revealed LSU's status as overrated.
Yet, the data continues to prove otherwise. Miss St is a respectable football team, and LSU crushed them. VT is a respectable football team, and LSU crushed them. SC just crushed 5-0 Kentucky and we handily beat SC in the rain with a weakened team.
Tulane was our low point. We crushed them in the second half.
So, here we are two days from the biggest kickoff in a long, long time. And there are many folks who just won't believe that the defense is THAT GOOD, that Matt Flynn deserves the starting job, and that Miles knows his team.
Well, I'm predicting that Crowton shows us the works in this game and the Gators will be grasping at straws. I'm predicting a season best effort from the defense and special teams, maybe not statistically, but considering the opponent, qualitatively. And I'm predicting only 1 Tiger turnover (fumble), but we get 3 Florida turnovers (2 ints, 1 fumble).
This is the year, ladies and gents. Florida is our first real test.
LSU walks away with the game in the third, and Florida scores a late TD to make the score more respectable than the game really will be.
LSU 35, Florida 23 (Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux both have a great game.)
Yet, the data continues to prove otherwise. Miss St is a respectable football team, and LSU crushed them. VT is a respectable football team, and LSU crushed them. SC just crushed 5-0 Kentucky and we handily beat SC in the rain with a weakened team.
Tulane was our low point. We crushed them in the second half.
So, here we are two days from the biggest kickoff in a long, long time. And there are many folks who just won't believe that the defense is THAT GOOD, that Matt Flynn deserves the starting job, and that Miles knows his team.
Well, I'm predicting that Crowton shows us the works in this game and the Gators will be grasping at straws. I'm predicting a season best effort from the defense and special teams, maybe not statistically, but considering the opponent, qualitatively. And I'm predicting only 1 Tiger turnover (fumble), but we get 3 Florida turnovers (2 ints, 1 fumble).
This is the year, ladies and gents. Florida is our first real test.
LSU walks away with the game in the third, and Florida scores a late TD to make the score more respectable than the game really will be.
LSU 35, Florida 23 (Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux both have a great game.)
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Pre-Game Prediction - Tiger's Win - Score Depends on the Weather
With a potential hurricane staring Louisiana in the face (albeit a small one), it's tough to make a prediction of the score, for obvious reasons. But the end result will be the same - LSU will win and it won't really be very close.
The Cocks have a defense. Is it very good? Well, it's good against the pass so far. But it's not great against the run. They haven't given up many points this season, so you can't ignore that. What the defense lacks is balance. Shutting down the pass without being solid against the run is useless when you're playing a Crowton offense. Crowton will use the weakness against the run to open up the passing game. And the Cocks haven't faced two quarterbacks (or an offense) like LSU has. I give their defense credit, but it won't be enough. And by the end of the third quarter they'll be spent and their lack of depth will take a serious toll.
The Cocks have an offense. Particularly, they have a running game with Boyd and Davis. But Mitchell has not inspired confidence at QB. And his backups must not be very good because Darth Visor is still starting Mitchell against LSU last I heard. On top of that, the Cock's offensive line has not been stellar in protecting Mitchell against ULL and SCSU. Imagine how freaked out they must be about facing the undisputed #1 defense in the land. So, basically, the offense is a running game that is average. Hmm..
The Cocks have one helluva coach. I think the best thing going for the Cocks in this game is Steve Spurrier. I don't like him. But I respect the hell out of his record in Tiger Stadium. He's not going to show up unprepared. And his willingness to take risks and be creative adds 7 points to the Cocks offense before they even take the field. He's just a devious, scheming little.....guy.....and I love to hate him. And if Les goes to Michigan (please don't go, Les), then I hope he'll entertain our offers, cause he's good.
But....
The Tiger defense is the best in the land, and that goes beyond stats. There's a swagger and a confidence level that elevates this squad to (I think) a legendary level in Tiger football. Dorsey coming back for his senior year put this group of excellent players over the top. They may not spend the entire season leading all the stats - cause Gawd knows the SEC will be pulling out all the stops - but I think by season's end we'll see an amazing display against a Pac-10 or Big-12 team in the Sugar Bowl that will water eyes for years to come. MTSU was a reasonable offense and they were held to 10 yards rushing and 90 total offense. Nuff said.
The Tiger offense is better than even we think they are. That's because they're still playing through adversity and still finding their way. By Florida, they will be firing on all cylinders. At any rate, I think we'll see a 400 yard offensive effort if the field is dry.
The weather, however, is the great equalizer - here's why. If this turns into a running contest, because it's pissing rain, then everything gets predictable and suddenly it's about the defense. So, LSU still wins - because the Cocks run defense is not good - but the score stays low, because drives on the ground eat up time.
And don't forget - we've been averaging 40+ points per game with the second and third team in for almost every 4th quarter. I think those days are done. I think Miles plays the heat from here on out and the enemy pays dearly. C'mon coach - load'em up!
Soo.......
Dry field - LSU 42 Cocks 10
Wet field - LSU 21 Cocks 3
Either way, LSU makes a statement with this game and sends the Cocks home to ponder Spurrier's pre-game pessimism.
The Cocks have a defense. Is it very good? Well, it's good against the pass so far. But it's not great against the run. They haven't given up many points this season, so you can't ignore that. What the defense lacks is balance. Shutting down the pass without being solid against the run is useless when you're playing a Crowton offense. Crowton will use the weakness against the run to open up the passing game. And the Cocks haven't faced two quarterbacks (or an offense) like LSU has. I give their defense credit, but it won't be enough. And by the end of the third quarter they'll be spent and their lack of depth will take a serious toll.
The Cocks have an offense. Particularly, they have a running game with Boyd and Davis. But Mitchell has not inspired confidence at QB. And his backups must not be very good because Darth Visor is still starting Mitchell against LSU last I heard. On top of that, the Cock's offensive line has not been stellar in protecting Mitchell against ULL and SCSU. Imagine how freaked out they must be about facing the undisputed #1 defense in the land. So, basically, the offense is a running game that is average. Hmm..
The Cocks have one helluva coach. I think the best thing going for the Cocks in this game is Steve Spurrier. I don't like him. But I respect the hell out of his record in Tiger Stadium. He's not going to show up unprepared. And his willingness to take risks and be creative adds 7 points to the Cocks offense before they even take the field. He's just a devious, scheming little.....guy.....and I love to hate him. And if Les goes to Michigan (please don't go, Les), then I hope he'll entertain our offers, cause he's good.
But....
The Tiger defense is the best in the land, and that goes beyond stats. There's a swagger and a confidence level that elevates this squad to (I think) a legendary level in Tiger football. Dorsey coming back for his senior year put this group of excellent players over the top. They may not spend the entire season leading all the stats - cause Gawd knows the SEC will be pulling out all the stops - but I think by season's end we'll see an amazing display against a Pac-10 or Big-12 team in the Sugar Bowl that will water eyes for years to come. MTSU was a reasonable offense and they were held to 10 yards rushing and 90 total offense. Nuff said.
The Tiger offense is better than even we think they are. That's because they're still playing through adversity and still finding their way. By Florida, they will be firing on all cylinders. At any rate, I think we'll see a 400 yard offensive effort if the field is dry.
The weather, however, is the great equalizer - here's why. If this turns into a running contest, because it's pissing rain, then everything gets predictable and suddenly it's about the defense. So, LSU still wins - because the Cocks run defense is not good - but the score stays low, because drives on the ground eat up time.
And don't forget - we've been averaging 40+ points per game with the second and third team in for almost every 4th quarter. I think those days are done. I think Miles plays the heat from here on out and the enemy pays dearly. C'mon coach - load'em up!
Soo.......
Dry field - LSU 42 Cocks 10
Wet field - LSU 21 Cocks 3
Either way, LSU makes a statement with this game and sends the Cocks home to ponder Spurrier's pre-game pessimism.
Friday, September 14, 2007
PRE-GAME PREDICTION - LSU 58 MTSU 3
Tomorrow's most interesting unknown may not be whether Flynn starts but whether the Tiger Stadium crowd gets into the game. Let's face it - there's not much spin up for this one. The media is blase, the blogs are inactive, the message boards are talking about everything BUT the game.
So I'll be interested to hear if the crowd is into it. Not because it's mandatory for the win, but because many of the fans were hitting the exits early last week - against VT. A quiet Tiger Stadium that empties out after the fourth quarter begins would be sad - the team deserves better.
At any rate, I think LSU is every bit as powerful as they look, and MTSU is not nearly as powerful as their 42 point effort against Louisville might suggest.
The Tigers will score on their first 5 possessions and then play the bench - and keep scoring.
MTSU will get 3 points set up by a really good kickoff or punt return.
The Tiger D will get 2 more picks, and Steltz (if he plays) will get one of them. And we'll get a safety.
LSU 58 MTSU 3
So I'll be interested to hear if the crowd is into it. Not because it's mandatory for the win, but because many of the fans were hitting the exits early last week - against VT. A quiet Tiger Stadium that empties out after the fourth quarter begins would be sad - the team deserves better.
At any rate, I think LSU is every bit as powerful as they look, and MTSU is not nearly as powerful as their 42 point effort against Louisville might suggest.
The Tigers will score on their first 5 possessions and then play the bench - and keep scoring.
MTSU will get 3 points set up by a really good kickoff or punt return.
The Tiger D will get 2 more picks, and Steltz (if he plays) will get one of them. And we'll get a safety.
LSU 58 MTSU 3
Thursday, September 13, 2007
For what it's worth, SI's Mandel gives LSU (not USC or OOOOOaaaak - lahoma) the best chance to remain undefeated at year's end.
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Pre-Game Prediction - Tigers By a Nose 17-10
With a point spread that's been hovering around 12 all week, and the Hokies players, coaches and fans basically saying they don't expect to win, it would be easy to fall into overconfidence tonight.
I don't think LSU's players and coaches are taking this game for granted. VT's defense is not MSU's defense, and Glennon is not Henig. This game will be a test.
Chances are good that the field will be wet, may even rain tonight against all common wisdom and the mythology of Tiger Stadium.
If LSU's offense were able to open it up tonight and protect Flynn and open some holes for The Committee, then I think the score could be something like LSU-31, VT-6.
However, it's still early in the season. The O-line is still finding it's way, Doucet's still the only proven performer at receiver, the tight-ends are still invisible, and it's probably going to be a wet game. We'll turn the ball over tonight at least once against a good Hokie Defense.
The DEFENSE will carry us through tonight, with outstanding play and a couple of key turnovers. They may even score a touchdown for us. Solid special teams play will also be hugely important against a Hokie team that prides itself on blocking kicks and punts.
We'll be too much for VT, and if the field is dry we'll be FAR too much. But I'll go with a wet night and an exciting and respectable 17-10 win for the Tigers. VT won't get more than 250 yards total offense. And I will have dreams of crystal footballs and a sweet New Orleans showdown with the Trojans....until I wake up and begin worrying about MTSU and their 500+ yards of offense on Louisville...
I don't think LSU's players and coaches are taking this game for granted. VT's defense is not MSU's defense, and Glennon is not Henig. This game will be a test.
Chances are good that the field will be wet, may even rain tonight against all common wisdom and the mythology of Tiger Stadium.
If LSU's offense were able to open it up tonight and protect Flynn and open some holes for The Committee, then I think the score could be something like LSU-31, VT-6.
However, it's still early in the season. The O-line is still finding it's way, Doucet's still the only proven performer at receiver, the tight-ends are still invisible, and it's probably going to be a wet game. We'll turn the ball over tonight at least once against a good Hokie Defense.
The DEFENSE will carry us through tonight, with outstanding play and a couple of key turnovers. They may even score a touchdown for us. Solid special teams play will also be hugely important against a Hokie team that prides itself on blocking kicks and punts.
We'll be too much for VT, and if the field is dry we'll be FAR too much. But I'll go with a wet night and an exciting and respectable 17-10 win for the Tigers. VT won't get more than 250 yards total offense. And I will have dreams of crystal footballs and a sweet New Orleans showdown with the Trojans....until I wake up and begin worrying about MTSU and their 500+ yards of offense on Louisville...
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Monday, September 3, 2007
Chris Warner from TigerDroppings on the VT game:
Tech will be unsure of itself and timid in its offensive approach as a result of
the unrelenting cacophony and LSU defensive pressure. After a failed running
game forces errant passes, the sticky LSU secondary will take over. This one
should be in hand by the start of the fourth quarter. In short, Tiger Stadium
will be too much for Mr. Glennon, who will struggle all night long to run his
offense. The score: LSU 35, VT 6
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Pre-Game Prediction - Tigers Cover 18 pt Spread
Coaches and players from LSU are being very careful not to make predictions. We're hearing lots of nice things about Lester Croom, MSU's late-season win against Alabama, etc.
Coaches and players from MSU are being very upbeat but also careful, talking about how challenges present opportunities, blah, blah, blah.
Everybody's being so safe.
Here's how I see it. MSU will come out emotionally high and stay relatively close in the first quarter. But LSU's dominant defense will wear them out quickly and by end of the third quarter, LSU will be up by 21 at least. MSU will get a break in the 4th with lots of LSU substitutions but it won't help much since the Tigers are deeper than the Dawgs.
42-6
Coaches and players from MSU are being very upbeat but also careful, talking about how challenges present opportunities, blah, blah, blah.
Everybody's being so safe.
Here's how I see it. MSU will come out emotionally high and stay relatively close in the first quarter. But LSU's dominant defense will wear them out quickly and by end of the third quarter, LSU will be up by 21 at least. MSU will get a break in the 4th with lots of LSU substitutions but it won't help much since the Tigers are deeper than the Dawgs.
42-6
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