Thursday, September 20, 2007

Pre-Game Prediction - Tiger's Win - Score Depends on the Weather

With a potential hurricane staring Louisiana in the face (albeit a small one), it's tough to make a prediction of the score, for obvious reasons. But the end result will be the same - LSU will win and it won't really be very close.

The Cocks have a defense. Is it very good? Well, it's good against the pass so far. But it's not great against the run. They haven't given up many points this season, so you can't ignore that. What the defense lacks is balance. Shutting down the pass without being solid against the run is useless when you're playing a Crowton offense. Crowton will use the weakness against the run to open up the passing game. And the Cocks haven't faced two quarterbacks (or an offense) like LSU has. I give their defense credit, but it won't be enough. And by the end of the third quarter they'll be spent and their lack of depth will take a serious toll.

The Cocks have an offense. Particularly, they have a running game with Boyd and Davis. But Mitchell has not inspired confidence at QB. And his backups must not be very good because Darth Visor is still starting Mitchell against LSU last I heard. On top of that, the Cock's offensive line has not been stellar in protecting Mitchell against ULL and SCSU. Imagine how freaked out they must be about facing the undisputed #1 defense in the land. So, basically, the offense is a running game that is average. Hmm..

The Cocks have one helluva coach. I think the best thing going for the Cocks in this game is Steve Spurrier. I don't like him. But I respect the hell out of his record in Tiger Stadium. He's not going to show up unprepared. And his willingness to take risks and be creative adds 7 points to the Cocks offense before they even take the field. He's just a devious, scheming little.....guy.....and I love to hate him. And if Les goes to Michigan (please don't go, Les), then I hope he'll entertain our offers, cause he's good.


The Tiger defense is the best in the land, and that goes beyond stats. There's a swagger and a confidence level that elevates this squad to (I think) a legendary level in Tiger football. Dorsey coming back for his senior year put this group of excellent players over the top. They may not spend the entire season leading all the stats - cause Gawd knows the SEC will be pulling out all the stops - but I think by season's end we'll see an amazing display against a Pac-10 or Big-12 team in the Sugar Bowl that will water eyes for years to come. MTSU was a reasonable offense and they were held to 10 yards rushing and 90 total offense. Nuff said.

The Tiger offense is better than even we think they are. That's because they're still playing through adversity and still finding their way. By Florida, they will be firing on all cylinders. At any rate, I think we'll see a 400 yard offensive effort if the field is dry.

The weather, however, is the great equalizer - here's why. If this turns into a running contest, because it's pissing rain, then everything gets predictable and suddenly it's about the defense. So, LSU still wins - because the Cocks run defense is not good - but the score stays low, because drives on the ground eat up time.

And don't forget - we've been averaging 40+ points per game with the second and third team in for almost every 4th quarter. I think those days are done. I think Miles plays the heat from here on out and the enemy pays dearly. C'mon coach - load'em up!


Dry field - LSU 42 Cocks 10

Wet field - LSU 21 Cocks 3

Either way, LSU makes a statement with this game and sends the Cocks home to ponder Spurrier's pre-game pessimism.

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