I was going to disect the Bama game and look in detail at all the good and bad stuff I found. But what would that accomplish, really? Bama has a very fine defense and some very good offensive players and a great head coach. Not much else to say. And I'm not going to talk anymore about the interception call because no one with half a brain disputes that it was a significantly poor call in a huge game that was still competitive.
It's not Bama's fault that they were handed a huge gift by thr replay official.
So I'm moving on. Let's talk about the future.
It's critical that the Tigers retain composure and stay motivated to win. Because a great bowl berth against a quality opponent is very important to next year's season. The freshmen and sophomores need that experience. And recruiting needs another Top 10 finish.
The next game against LA Tech will be critical and it won't be automatic. I don't know the injury situation yet (working too hard) but I hope JJ is back for LA Tech. I think we can win with Lee, but JJ needs another start and maybe another big throwing game.
Ole Miss no longer concern me as much as they did in the early season, but they are very capable of upsetting the Tigers.
So focus and a new set of goals are critical to the rest of the season.
I mean, let's face it. I called this a 2 loss season at best anyway. So I hope the team agrees that 11-2 is a fantastic record. And wouldn't it be great to have LSU spank Boise State in a bowl game? Personally, I hope that's who LSU plays.
But we're not there yet. What was the word? Oh yeah.
Focus.
Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alabama. Show all posts
Monday, November 9, 2009
Saturday, November 7, 2009
LSU 15, Bama 24: Quick Thoughts
How'd we do with my recipe?
1. 2nd and 6 or less. Actually, the Tigers accomplished this about 6 or 7 times in the game. They also had plenty of 2nd and 10 or more situations, but 1st down plays were generally pretty good.
2. 200+ passing and 2:1 TD to Int ratio. Well, the Tigers only managed 158 yards in the air and one touchdown, with one interception late by Jarett Lee. Not good. And this did play a large factor in the game outcome in my opinion.
3. Win the turnover war. Actually, LSU did win the turnover war. But the refs didn't see it that way. Peterson's interception was denied. So each team had 1 interception. Not good for LSU in this game.
4. Take advantage of big plays. LSU had a lack of big plays throughout the game on offense. Scott had one big run, and the defense gave the Tigers great field position via some fantastic punting and a safety. The Tigers scored a TD after the safety and punt. But LSU did not have any offensive big plays.
5. Penalties and Luck. Do I have to say it? All the Bama folks will guffaw. Because they don't want to believe it. And I am not one to blame the refs. But the officiating in this game was terrible (we'll cover that more later) and the interception by Peterson that was denied after the replay clearly showed what an athletic play he made - well, that denied LSU the chance to win the football game. It changed the momentum completely. And it ended soon after that. From a luck standpoint - well, I don't think good or bad luck played much of a factor either way. LSU certainly didn't get lucky in the game at any time. And besides maybe one possible interference call that could've been called against Peterson, the calls all went Bama's way.
Let me be clear. Bama is a better football team because they have a better defense and a slightly better offensive line. And Ingram and Jones are fantastic. Bama played a very physical, very good football game. But the refs interfered in the flow of the game in at least two, and maybe three instances. So LSU was denied the chance to stay in the football game when the refs denied Peterson his amazing play.
Lots of apparently minor injuries for LSU. Jefferson didn't play a lot of the 2nd half. Scott hurt his shoulder I think. Peterson didn't play much of the 4th quarter. Black went down for a bit.
Lots to talk about. The offsides flinch by Barksdale, the lack of sacks by the defense, the awesome punting by LSU, Stevan Ridley, Jarrett Lee, LSU's offensive line, the 2-point conversion attempt, the poor clock management that ended up putting the Tigers in the 4th quarter with no timeouts. Lots to examine later.
The Tigers played their butts off. They deserved a better effort from the officials. And the Bamatards that honestly don't think that interception was inbounds and/or changed the game - well, congrats on the win. I'm rooting for Florida.
1. 2nd and 6 or less. Actually, the Tigers accomplished this about 6 or 7 times in the game. They also had plenty of 2nd and 10 or more situations, but 1st down plays were generally pretty good.
2. 200+ passing and 2:1 TD to Int ratio. Well, the Tigers only managed 158 yards in the air and one touchdown, with one interception late by Jarett Lee. Not good. And this did play a large factor in the game outcome in my opinion.
3. Win the turnover war. Actually, LSU did win the turnover war. But the refs didn't see it that way. Peterson's interception was denied. So each team had 1 interception. Not good for LSU in this game.
4. Take advantage of big plays. LSU had a lack of big plays throughout the game on offense. Scott had one big run, and the defense gave the Tigers great field position via some fantastic punting and a safety. The Tigers scored a TD after the safety and punt. But LSU did not have any offensive big plays.
5. Penalties and Luck. Do I have to say it? All the Bama folks will guffaw. Because they don't want to believe it. And I am not one to blame the refs. But the officiating in this game was terrible (we'll cover that more later) and the interception by Peterson that was denied after the replay clearly showed what an athletic play he made - well, that denied LSU the chance to win the football game. It changed the momentum completely. And it ended soon after that. From a luck standpoint - well, I don't think good or bad luck played much of a factor either way. LSU certainly didn't get lucky in the game at any time. And besides maybe one possible interference call that could've been called against Peterson, the calls all went Bama's way.
Let me be clear. Bama is a better football team because they have a better defense and a slightly better offensive line. And Ingram and Jones are fantastic. Bama played a very physical, very good football game. But the refs interfered in the flow of the game in at least two, and maybe three instances. So LSU was denied the chance to stay in the football game when the refs denied Peterson his amazing play.
Lots of apparently minor injuries for LSU. Jefferson didn't play a lot of the 2nd half. Scott hurt his shoulder I think. Peterson didn't play much of the 4th quarter. Black went down for a bit.
Lots to talk about. The offsides flinch by Barksdale, the lack of sacks by the defense, the awesome punting by LSU, Stevan Ridley, Jarrett Lee, LSU's offensive line, the 2-point conversion attempt, the poor clock management that ended up putting the Tigers in the 4th quarter with no timeouts. Lots to examine later.
The Tigers played their butts off. They deserved a better effort from the officials. And the Bamatards that honestly don't think that interception was inbounds and/or changed the game - well, congrats on the win. I'm rooting for Florida.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient's Four and Five
The first ingredient was: 2nd and 6 or Less.
The second ingredient was: 200+ and 2:1.
The third ingredient is: Win the Turnover War.
The fourth ingredient is: Take Advantage of Big Plays.
Long drives are going to be very tough to sustain. The Tigers will not likely be able to get to the endzone without great field position. And it will be difficult to get great field position without some big plays. And by big plays, I mean offense, defense and special teams. When they happen, the Tigers need to convert. LSU needs to have a plan to capitalize on momentum-shifting big plays and get points on the board.
On offense, I would expect the big plays to come via the passing game. As I have discussed earlier, LSU has enough offensive weaponry, in the persons of Lafell, Toliver, Shepard, Holliday, Scott and Randle, to gain some big yardage a few times in Saturday's game.
On defense, LSU will obviously be looking for turnovers. But as we've hinted, Bama is almost as stingy as LSU in this realm. So the defense will also need to come up with some big stops. The Tigers need to force some 3 and outs in Bama territory, and also stop the Tide from scoring 7 in the Red Zone.
Special teams may be the best place for LSU to make big plays. LSU's punt return stats are great. But the most interesting stat is kickoff returns. Bama is last in the SEC on kickoff coverage. And, while LSU is last in kickoff returns, most of that is because the Tigers seldom get a chance to return one - teams have either sky kicked or otherwise avoided letting LSU's deep men get the football. If Alabama makes the mistake of kicking to Holliday and Brooks, perhaps we can have some excitement on Saturday.
The fifth ingredient is: Penalties and Luck.
Regardless of whether you believe Bama gets referee preference, the stats for penalties between LSU and Bama lately are hard to dispute. Basically, LSU gives up somewhere between 40 and 60 yards a game to Bama in penalties. The Tigers need to reverse this stat. While the Tigers can't force the refs to call penalties on Bama, they can make it difficult to call them on LSU.
And Luck. I'm talking about fumbles that bounce the right way - back into Tiger hands. I'm talking about dropped interceptions. I'm talking about Jefferson seeing a blown coverage in time to take advantage of it before being sacked. I'm talking about McElroy getting sacked just before he's able to find a wide open receiver in blown coverage. LSU needs Lady Luck to be wearing purple on Saturday.
In summary, LSU needs solid first down gains, a productive passing game, an advantage in turnovers, some big plays that result in scores, and some luck with the refs and the football.
LSU needs all of these things to one degree or another. Otherwise, Bama's defense will beat LSU's offense and the Tigers lose.
I don't like it. But that's how I see it.
Not an easy recipe.
The second ingredient was: 200+ and 2:1.
The third ingredient is: Win the Turnover War.
The fourth ingredient is: Take Advantage of Big Plays.
Long drives are going to be very tough to sustain. The Tigers will not likely be able to get to the endzone without great field position. And it will be difficult to get great field position without some big plays. And by big plays, I mean offense, defense and special teams. When they happen, the Tigers need to convert. LSU needs to have a plan to capitalize on momentum-shifting big plays and get points on the board.
On offense, I would expect the big plays to come via the passing game. As I have discussed earlier, LSU has enough offensive weaponry, in the persons of Lafell, Toliver, Shepard, Holliday, Scott and Randle, to gain some big yardage a few times in Saturday's game.
On defense, LSU will obviously be looking for turnovers. But as we've hinted, Bama is almost as stingy as LSU in this realm. So the defense will also need to come up with some big stops. The Tigers need to force some 3 and outs in Bama territory, and also stop the Tide from scoring 7 in the Red Zone.
Special teams may be the best place for LSU to make big plays. LSU's punt return stats are great. But the most interesting stat is kickoff returns. Bama is last in the SEC on kickoff coverage. And, while LSU is last in kickoff returns, most of that is because the Tigers seldom get a chance to return one - teams have either sky kicked or otherwise avoided letting LSU's deep men get the football. If Alabama makes the mistake of kicking to Holliday and Brooks, perhaps we can have some excitement on Saturday.
The fifth ingredient is: Penalties and Luck.
Regardless of whether you believe Bama gets referee preference, the stats for penalties between LSU and Bama lately are hard to dispute. Basically, LSU gives up somewhere between 40 and 60 yards a game to Bama in penalties. The Tigers need to reverse this stat. While the Tigers can't force the refs to call penalties on Bama, they can make it difficult to call them on LSU.
And Luck. I'm talking about fumbles that bounce the right way - back into Tiger hands. I'm talking about dropped interceptions. I'm talking about Jefferson seeing a blown coverage in time to take advantage of it before being sacked. I'm talking about McElroy getting sacked just before he's able to find a wide open receiver in blown coverage. LSU needs Lady Luck to be wearing purple on Saturday.
In summary, LSU needs solid first down gains, a productive passing game, an advantage in turnovers, some big plays that result in scores, and some luck with the refs and the football.
LSU needs all of these things to one degree or another. Otherwise, Bama's defense will beat LSU's offense and the Tigers lose.
I don't like it. But that's how I see it.
Not an easy recipe.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient Three
The first ingredient was: 2nd and 6 or Less.
The second ingredient was: 200+ and 2:1.
The third ingredient is: Win the Turnover War.
It's going to be very difficult for LSU to find the endzone Saturday. It will be even tougher if the Tigers give up the football more than the Tide. Not only will turnovers negate opportunities for LSU to score, but they will in many cases put Bama in great field position.
Currently the Tigers are +9 in turnover ratio, leading the SEC. Alabama is +7, which is good for 3rd. In raw numbers, the Tigers and Tide both have 16 takeaways, but LSU has only turned the ball over 7 times to Bama's 9. The difference there is in fumbles lost, where LSU has for a long time been very, very stingy.
Statistically, not much there.
About all LSU can do is continue to not turn the ball over.
That, and put tons of pressure on McElroy so that he throws a couple of picks. Pressure on the QB has not been the Tigers' strong suit this season. While LSU is dead last in sacks, Alabama is first in the SEC in sacks against. Not a comforting statistic if we're hoping to pressure Bama's QB.
If the Tigers lose the turnover battle to Bama, it will be next to impossible to win the game.
If the Tigers win the turnover battle, they will have an opportunity to score touchdowns (probably) and burn clock.
This ingredient will require a lot of luck.
The second ingredient was: 200+ and 2:1.
The third ingredient is: Win the Turnover War.
It's going to be very difficult for LSU to find the endzone Saturday. It will be even tougher if the Tigers give up the football more than the Tide. Not only will turnovers negate opportunities for LSU to score, but they will in many cases put Bama in great field position.
Currently the Tigers are +9 in turnover ratio, leading the SEC. Alabama is +7, which is good for 3rd. In raw numbers, the Tigers and Tide both have 16 takeaways, but LSU has only turned the ball over 7 times to Bama's 9. The difference there is in fumbles lost, where LSU has for a long time been very, very stingy.
Statistically, not much there.
About all LSU can do is continue to not turn the ball over.
That, and put tons of pressure on McElroy so that he throws a couple of picks. Pressure on the QB has not been the Tigers' strong suit this season. While LSU is dead last in sacks, Alabama is first in the SEC in sacks against. Not a comforting statistic if we're hoping to pressure Bama's QB.
If the Tigers lose the turnover battle to Bama, it will be next to impossible to win the game.
If the Tigers win the turnover battle, they will have an opportunity to score touchdowns (probably) and burn clock.
This ingredient will require a lot of luck.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient Two
The first ingredient was: 2nd and 6 or Less.
The second ingredient is: 200+ and 2:1.
That is, more than 200 yards passing and a passing TD to Int ratio of at least 2:1.
LSU will have to establish a threatening passing game against the Bama defense in order to allow any kind of balance in their offense. Normally, the Tigers try to establish the power running game first. Lately, however, I would argue that the passing game has assisted in opening up the running game. And that's definitely the only recipe for success against Alabama's formidable defensive front 7.
I'm not insinuating that Alabama's pass defense is a team weakness. Because it's not. It's simply the most vulnerable part of a very good defense. Plus, LSU's Jordan Jefferson has a talented group of receivers to throw to. If Jefferson can get rid of the ball quickly and accurately, he stands a very good chance of finding some mismatches in the secondary on first and second down. Again, not because Bama's DBs aren't good. But because LSU's receivers are very good.
And, of course, a demonstrated ability to move the ball through the air 6-9 yards at at time (or more) will force Bama's talented linebackers to back-the-fuck-up. And that will be the only real possibility for LSU to find some seams on the ground and let the talented Tiger backs gain some yards and eat up some clock.
If the Tigers can get 200+ yards through the air and throw at least two passing touchdowns for every pick, this will be a completely winnable football game. If the Tigers can't get the passing game going, which will likely result in a large number of 3 and out situations, Defeat will be lurking in the visitor's locker room.
I think Jordan Jefferson is ready. And I think our receivers match up very well with Bama's secondary.
The second ingredient is: 200+ and 2:1.
That is, more than 200 yards passing and a passing TD to Int ratio of at least 2:1.
LSU will have to establish a threatening passing game against the Bama defense in order to allow any kind of balance in their offense. Normally, the Tigers try to establish the power running game first. Lately, however, I would argue that the passing game has assisted in opening up the running game. And that's definitely the only recipe for success against Alabama's formidable defensive front 7.
I'm not insinuating that Alabama's pass defense is a team weakness. Because it's not. It's simply the most vulnerable part of a very good defense. Plus, LSU's Jordan Jefferson has a talented group of receivers to throw to. If Jefferson can get rid of the ball quickly and accurately, he stands a very good chance of finding some mismatches in the secondary on first and second down. Again, not because Bama's DBs aren't good. But because LSU's receivers are very good.
And, of course, a demonstrated ability to move the ball through the air 6-9 yards at at time (or more) will force Bama's talented linebackers to back-the-fuck-up. And that will be the only real possibility for LSU to find some seams on the ground and let the talented Tiger backs gain some yards and eat up some clock.
If the Tigers can get 200+ yards through the air and throw at least two passing touchdowns for every pick, this will be a completely winnable football game. If the Tigers can't get the passing game going, which will likely result in a large number of 3 and out situations, Defeat will be lurking in the visitor's locker room.
I think Jordan Jefferson is ready. And I think our receivers match up very well with Bama's secondary.
Monday, November 2, 2009
LSU's Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient One
I said early in the season that I thought LSU would lose at least 2 games, maybe 3 or even 4, this year. The two almost certain losses were Florida and Bama.
While I still think the odds are against LSU beating Bama on Saturday, I think they are far more likely to pull off a victory than I originally thought. Mostly because Bama's offense is not as good as I thought it would be. But also because LSU's defense is better than I thought it would be.
For the next five days, I'm going to offer a simple (well, maybe not simple) 5 ingredient recipe to an LSU victory on Saturday.
Ingredient #1: 2nd and 6 or Less.
This is the toughest part of the recipe by far. Bama is not going to make it easy for LSU to pound 4 yards up the middle (or even around the end) on 1st down. Bama's defensive line is stout. Bama's linebackers are excellent. And LSU's offensive line has not dominated any defensive line, except maybe Tulane's, all season long. I seriously doubt Charles Scott is going to be able to average 4-5 yards per carry.
So the coaching staff is going to have to have a creative first down gameplan, and Jordan Jefferson is going to have to execute it. What might that look like? Well, I hope it's creative enough to elude our imagination. But I'll take a stab at it. I think LSU's first down gameplan will involve a mixture of play action from the power I formation, quick slants to Richard Dickson, bubble screens to Toliver and Lafell, and a few novelty plays, like shuffle passes and reverses and maybe a halfback pass (Shepard to Holliday?). And, of course, there will be a dose of Charles Scott (or Stevan Ridley?) up the middle. But hopefully it will be infrequent and therefore more successful.
Why is this ingredient important? Because LSU has not been good on 3rd and long. And Alabama has a damned good defense. And 2nd and 10, with a "meh" offensive line and a still-young QB is not a great recipe against the Tide. However, shorter second down situations with any kind of frequency will allow Crowton and Miles to have fun with the offensive weapons at their disposal. And there are a lot of weapons, especially in the receiving corps.
Achievable? Yes. Likely? Great question. The rest of the ingredients will help make this more likely.
While I still think the odds are against LSU beating Bama on Saturday, I think they are far more likely to pull off a victory than I originally thought. Mostly because Bama's offense is not as good as I thought it would be. But also because LSU's defense is better than I thought it would be.
For the next five days, I'm going to offer a simple (well, maybe not simple) 5 ingredient recipe to an LSU victory on Saturday.
Ingredient #1: 2nd and 6 or Less.
This is the toughest part of the recipe by far. Bama is not going to make it easy for LSU to pound 4 yards up the middle (or even around the end) on 1st down. Bama's defensive line is stout. Bama's linebackers are excellent. And LSU's offensive line has not dominated any defensive line, except maybe Tulane's, all season long. I seriously doubt Charles Scott is going to be able to average 4-5 yards per carry.
So the coaching staff is going to have to have a creative first down gameplan, and Jordan Jefferson is going to have to execute it. What might that look like? Well, I hope it's creative enough to elude our imagination. But I'll take a stab at it. I think LSU's first down gameplan will involve a mixture of play action from the power I formation, quick slants to Richard Dickson, bubble screens to Toliver and Lafell, and a few novelty plays, like shuffle passes and reverses and maybe a halfback pass (Shepard to Holliday?). And, of course, there will be a dose of Charles Scott (or Stevan Ridley?) up the middle. But hopefully it will be infrequent and therefore more successful.
Why is this ingredient important? Because LSU has not been good on 3rd and long. And Alabama has a damned good defense. And 2nd and 10, with a "meh" offensive line and a still-young QB is not a great recipe against the Tide. However, shorter second down situations with any kind of frequency will allow Crowton and Miles to have fun with the offensive weapons at their disposal. And there are a lot of weapons, especially in the receiving corps.
Achievable? Yes. Likely? Great question. The rest of the ingredients will help make this more likely.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
SOAPBOX: Utah? WTF!
Utah owned SECW champs Alabama last night in the Superdome. As in it was never really close. The 31-17 drubbing finished a perfect 13-0 season for the Mountain West team, and thrusts them squarely into yet another brewing challenge to the BCS system's validity. If the Utes can go 13-0, beating Alabama, Oregon State, and Boise State, then how can a one loss Florida or Oklahoma claim to be the champs? I'll let others argue that one. Honestly, short of an NFL style playoff system that drags out for another month, there is no perfect answer. I'll leave it at that.
But back to Utah.
This is a team that has recruited exactly four 4* players in the last five years. Not in EACH of the last five years. In the last five years COMBINED. Their average star rating for the last five recruiting classes is 2.4. The highest their recruiting classes have ranked since 2004 is 55th. The only SEC team they favorably compare to from a recruiting standpoint is Vanderbilt (funny, that). Their starting QB is a fifth-year 2*. He made John Parker Wilson look like a scout team QB by comparison last night.
Bama, on the other hand, signed as many 4* and 5* offensive linemen in 2006 alone (4) than Utah signed in all positions in the combined years of 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. Bama's average star rating over that period is 3.3. The lowest they ranked was near #20, and the highest was last year's #1 rated class.
Saban makes over $4 million a year. Whittingham was making $4 million over SIX years before signing a recent raise to $6 million over 5 years.
Of course, any team can have a great day and beat any other team, right?
Yet this is the Sugar Bowl - against the great and historic Alabama Crimson Tide, resurgent under the recruiting prowess and coaching genius of Nick Saban. Surely there's no way Bama was overlooking this team. Surely they weren't unprepared.
No, I think Utah was a better team. How is that possible, considering the serious disparity in recruiting and coaching salaries between the two teams?
Well, it's impossible to know for sure. Here are my two educated guesses.
1. Salaries define past coaching performance mixed with hope and sprinkled with incentive for good measure. Salaries do not define ACTUAL coaching performance.
2. Recruiting is like mining. You generally get raw material of varying quality and it's the coaches' job to make it shiny and profitable. Sometimes, an up-and-coming operation will be able to get more out of lesser known raw product than a well-established, "elite" operation, where too much inertia and internal chaos get in the way of processing the very finest raw material available. It's called efficiency and waste.
The vast majority of Bama fans won't like those answers. Most Bama fans won't like any answers this morning. And I would be the same way. But to me, Bama was outcoached. Not just this year. But outcoached as a program by Utah. You can't put it all on Saban. This loss is about Utah being a much more solid football program - in total - than Alabama. First Urban Meyer, then Whittingham. The Utah athletic director knows how to pick coaches, apparently.
Would Utah have beaten LSU or Florida or Georgia?
Well, with that passing game, I think LSU could've been in serious trouble. I can't speak for the Gators or the Dawgs.
I'm impressed with what Whittingham and Utah have done.
Alabama has some big holes to fill for next year, but they have to remain the favorite in the West. And I'm cool with that, too. I prefer Les Miles and LSU to be slightly under estimated.
As for Utah, they graduate a TON of seniors this year. And that's a program that rebuilds, not reloads. They'll be remembering 2008 for a long, long time!
But back to Utah.
This is a team that has recruited exactly four 4* players in the last five years. Not in EACH of the last five years. In the last five years COMBINED. Their average star rating for the last five recruiting classes is 2.4. The highest their recruiting classes have ranked since 2004 is 55th. The only SEC team they favorably compare to from a recruiting standpoint is Vanderbilt (funny, that). Their starting QB is a fifth-year 2*. He made John Parker Wilson look like a scout team QB by comparison last night.
Bama, on the other hand, signed as many 4* and 5* offensive linemen in 2006 alone (4) than Utah signed in all positions in the combined years of 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. Bama's average star rating over that period is 3.3. The lowest they ranked was near #20, and the highest was last year's #1 rated class.
Saban makes over $4 million a year. Whittingham was making $4 million over SIX years before signing a recent raise to $6 million over 5 years.
Of course, any team can have a great day and beat any other team, right?
Yet this is the Sugar Bowl - against the great and historic Alabama Crimson Tide, resurgent under the recruiting prowess and coaching genius of Nick Saban. Surely there's no way Bama was overlooking this team. Surely they weren't unprepared.
No, I think Utah was a better team. How is that possible, considering the serious disparity in recruiting and coaching salaries between the two teams?
Well, it's impossible to know for sure. Here are my two educated guesses.
1. Salaries define past coaching performance mixed with hope and sprinkled with incentive for good measure. Salaries do not define ACTUAL coaching performance.
2. Recruiting is like mining. You generally get raw material of varying quality and it's the coaches' job to make it shiny and profitable. Sometimes, an up-and-coming operation will be able to get more out of lesser known raw product than a well-established, "elite" operation, where too much inertia and internal chaos get in the way of processing the very finest raw material available. It's called efficiency and waste.
The vast majority of Bama fans won't like those answers. Most Bama fans won't like any answers this morning. And I would be the same way. But to me, Bama was outcoached. Not just this year. But outcoached as a program by Utah. You can't put it all on Saban. This loss is about Utah being a much more solid football program - in total - than Alabama. First Urban Meyer, then Whittingham. The Utah athletic director knows how to pick coaches, apparently.
Would Utah have beaten LSU or Florida or Georgia?
Well, with that passing game, I think LSU could've been in serious trouble. I can't speak for the Gators or the Dawgs.
I'm impressed with what Whittingham and Utah have done.
Alabama has some big holes to fill for next year, but they have to remain the favorite in the West. And I'm cool with that, too. I prefer Les Miles and LSU to be slightly under estimated.
As for Utah, they graduate a TON of seniors this year. And that's a program that rebuilds, not reloads. They'll be remembering 2008 for a long, long time!
Sunday, November 4, 2007
SUNDAY SOAPBOX: LSU 41, Bama 34
LSU is a gutsy team. Few squads would be able to give up 3 interceptions (two deep in their own territory), a punt return for a touchdown, and FOURTEEN penalties, against a ranked and well coached opponent - and win. Unbelievable.
I think what we know now is that LSU won't be beaten this year. They may, however, beat themselves. They nearly did so yesterday.
Overview.
The game stats are mostly lopsided in favor of LSU (except for first downs and penalties). And that reflects LSU's defensive domination of the Tide. Bama was unable to run against the Tigers and the defensive line pressured Wilson, forcing lots of poor throws, knocking down numerous throws, and of course Craig Steltz's hit in the waning minutes that knocked the ball out of the Bama receiver's hands.
The great equalizer in this game was LSU mistakes and a couple of big plays by Bama, specifically the DJ Hall TD and the Arenas punt return for a TD.
To be fair, LSU got a huge break when the replay officials overturned an apparent catch, calling it incomplete. The diving attempt was extremely close, and after watching it over and over, I still can't call it. In my mind, the receiver should get the benefit of the doubt in those situations.
However, the ball bounces both ways. LSU had numerous very questionable penalties called against them that kept Bama drives alive and resulted in scores. Not least of these was the Tyson Jackson hit on Wilson that, I think, was called as helmet to helmet. Regardless, it was neither helmet to helmet or a late hit. And the penalty kept a stalled drive alive and resulted in DJ Hall's reception one play later.
I'll go with a GOOD, BAD, and UGLY format again this week.
The GOOD.
LSU receiving corps. Specifically, Demetrius Byrd, Early Doucet, and Brandon LaFell. The receivers dropped far fewer passes yesterday than in previous games, and Byrd and Doucet had some huge receptions. I think Tolliver is also a very good receiver, and Richard Dickson is looking very strong as well.
LSU offensive line. Bama does not have a strong pass rush, but the LSU offensive line has not protected Flynn very well most of the season. Yesterday, they did much better, giving up only 3 sacks.
LSU defense. Seven sacks, three QB hurries, 8 passes broken up, at least 3 or 4 blocked passes, and only 20 yards rushing. Glenn Dorsey played as well hurt as any of the healthy linemen on the field. What a warrior and a leader! I just hope he's not so selfless that he ruins what is certainly a lucrative career ahead of him. The defensive line played so well that Craig Steltz only had 4 tackles. He had sixteen against Florida. And CHAD JONES! Look out for Chad Jones, a true freshman who claims to be more interested in baseball - we'll see. He's having a fantastic freshman year so far. I could go on.
The BAD.
Where was LSU's running game? I think it was available, especially up the middle. Maybe we might not have had 3 interceptions if the Tigers had pounded the ball up the middle a bit more.
The UGLY.
Fourteen penalties. According to Jordy Hultberg on LSU Sunday Night Live, Coach Miles told his team that the next player to get a personal foul would no longer be on the team. I'm not sure he'll be able to stand up to that, but I like the sentiment and the emphasis.
Three interceptions. Matt Flynn forced some passes. Two of the interceptions were nice plays by Bama, one was just a bad pass. But Flynn appeared to be pushing too hard.
The RESULT.
LSU wins! Matt Flynn deserves more credit than crap - he kept his wits and drove the team to tie the game. Demetrius Byrd and Early Doucet were pivotal. And the entire defense, led by Mr. Dorsey and Derry Beckwith, played tough, tough football.
If the Tigers can cut the penalties down to a reasonable number (five anyone?) and reign in the interceptions, they'll be scary good in the final weeks of the season.
We're number two across the board. Once again, the Tigers' destiny is in their own hands.
I think what we know now is that LSU won't be beaten this year. They may, however, beat themselves. They nearly did so yesterday.
Overview.
The game stats are mostly lopsided in favor of LSU (except for first downs and penalties). And that reflects LSU's defensive domination of the Tide. Bama was unable to run against the Tigers and the defensive line pressured Wilson, forcing lots of poor throws, knocking down numerous throws, and of course Craig Steltz's hit in the waning minutes that knocked the ball out of the Bama receiver's hands.
The great equalizer in this game was LSU mistakes and a couple of big plays by Bama, specifically the DJ Hall TD and the Arenas punt return for a TD.
To be fair, LSU got a huge break when the replay officials overturned an apparent catch, calling it incomplete. The diving attempt was extremely close, and after watching it over and over, I still can't call it. In my mind, the receiver should get the benefit of the doubt in those situations.
However, the ball bounces both ways. LSU had numerous very questionable penalties called against them that kept Bama drives alive and resulted in scores. Not least of these was the Tyson Jackson hit on Wilson that, I think, was called as helmet to helmet. Regardless, it was neither helmet to helmet or a late hit. And the penalty kept a stalled drive alive and resulted in DJ Hall's reception one play later.
I'll go with a GOOD, BAD, and UGLY format again this week.
The GOOD.
LSU receiving corps. Specifically, Demetrius Byrd, Early Doucet, and Brandon LaFell. The receivers dropped far fewer passes yesterday than in previous games, and Byrd and Doucet had some huge receptions. I think Tolliver is also a very good receiver, and Richard Dickson is looking very strong as well.
LSU offensive line. Bama does not have a strong pass rush, but the LSU offensive line has not protected Flynn very well most of the season. Yesterday, they did much better, giving up only 3 sacks.
LSU defense. Seven sacks, three QB hurries, 8 passes broken up, at least 3 or 4 blocked passes, and only 20 yards rushing. Glenn Dorsey played as well hurt as any of the healthy linemen on the field. What a warrior and a leader! I just hope he's not so selfless that he ruins what is certainly a lucrative career ahead of him. The defensive line played so well that Craig Steltz only had 4 tackles. He had sixteen against Florida. And CHAD JONES! Look out for Chad Jones, a true freshman who claims to be more interested in baseball - we'll see. He's having a fantastic freshman year so far. I could go on.
The BAD.
Where was LSU's running game? I think it was available, especially up the middle. Maybe we might not have had 3 interceptions if the Tigers had pounded the ball up the middle a bit more.
The UGLY.
Fourteen penalties. According to Jordy Hultberg on LSU Sunday Night Live, Coach Miles told his team that the next player to get a personal foul would no longer be on the team. I'm not sure he'll be able to stand up to that, but I like the sentiment and the emphasis.
Three interceptions. Matt Flynn forced some passes. Two of the interceptions were nice plays by Bama, one was just a bad pass. But Flynn appeared to be pushing too hard.
The RESULT.
LSU wins! Matt Flynn deserves more credit than crap - he kept his wits and drove the team to tie the game. Demetrius Byrd and Early Doucet were pivotal. And the entire defense, led by Mr. Dorsey and Derry Beckwith, played tough, tough football.
If the Tigers can cut the penalties down to a reasonable number (five anyone?) and reign in the interceptions, they'll be scary good in the final weeks of the season.
We're number two across the board. Once again, the Tigers' destiny is in their own hands.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Holy Crap, Y'all!
The Cardiac Cats do it again!
I had to attend the NAS Pensacola Marine Corps Ball (Happy 232nd Birthday, Jarheads! You don't look a day over 40) so I only watched the first quarter and the last 5 minutes. But that's all I needed. I've got it on TiVo, so I'm off to watch that in a minute.
But the stats say it all. LSU dominated this game but for penalties and 3 interceptions. The Tigers very nearly beat themselves - again. I'm sure the coaching staff will have a lot to say about that tomorrow in the film review.
At the risk of patting myself on the back, I think I got this one right. The key to success was getting to Wilson, which the Tigers most definitely did - I think he was sacked 7 times. And I believe I also said we'd blow them out if we could keep the penalties low and the turnover ratio in our favor. Well, had we done that, it would have been close to my 41-17 prediction. We did get the 41! I also called the punt return for a TD thing. So ducky for me, I guess.
It was ugly, it was exciting, it was a big, fat, stinking WIN!
More tomorrow after I actually force myself to watch 14 penalties and 3 interceptions....on purpose. At least I know what the outcome is, so I won't throw anything at the TV (probably).
I had to attend the NAS Pensacola Marine Corps Ball (Happy 232nd Birthday, Jarheads! You don't look a day over 40) so I only watched the first quarter and the last 5 minutes. But that's all I needed. I've got it on TiVo, so I'm off to watch that in a minute.
But the stats say it all. LSU dominated this game but for penalties and 3 interceptions. The Tigers very nearly beat themselves - again. I'm sure the coaching staff will have a lot to say about that tomorrow in the film review.
At the risk of patting myself on the back, I think I got this one right. The key to success was getting to Wilson, which the Tigers most definitely did - I think he was sacked 7 times. And I believe I also said we'd blow them out if we could keep the penalties low and the turnover ratio in our favor. Well, had we done that, it would have been close to my 41-17 prediction. We did get the 41! I also called the punt return for a TD thing. So ducky for me, I guess.
It was ugly, it was exciting, it was a big, fat, stinking WIN!
More tomorrow after I actually force myself to watch 14 penalties and 3 interceptions....on purpose. At least I know what the outcome is, so I won't throw anything at the TV (probably).
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Bama's Season So Far and a Prediction
Schedule
Alabama is 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the SEC, sharing the lead in the SEC West with the Tigers. Bama's wins came against Western Carolina (1-8), Vanderbilt (5-3), Arkansas (5-3), Houston (5-3), Mississippi (2-7), and Tennessee (5-3). Their losses came at home against Georgia (6-2) and on the road against Florida State (5-3) - two losses in a row.
Offense
Overall, the Tide have a reasonable offense, gaining 413 yards and 31.5 points per game. QB John Parker Wilson has had a decent year, throwing for over 1800 yards so far with a 119.4 rating. Wilson and Flynn match up fairly well across the board. Wilson's been protected fairly well all year, with only 14 sacks against the Tide, five less than LSU's 19 allowed. Offensively, this is Bama's key to the game. If the Bama offensive line can protect Wilson long enough to have a receiver break free, then they have talent enough to march down the field and score. Bama has a fairly balanced attack, but relies mostly on the passing game with D.J. Hall, statistically the most prolific receiver in the SEC, averaging nearly 100 yards per game. Bama's leading rusher is Terry Grant, an all-purpose back with 87 yards per game on the ground, 15 receiving, and 8 touchdowns.
Honestly, the Tide and the Tigers offenses have put up similar numbers all year. Total production is 413 to 435 (Tide to Tigers), points per game is 31.5 to 36.8, and turnovers are 9 to 8. LSU relies a bit more heavily on the run than Bama, but not significantly so.
Defense
From a defensive standpoint, the two teams aren't as similar. Bama's defense gives up 355 yards per game, 131 on the ground and 224 in the air. That's significantly more than LSU's defense allows (232, 72, 131). They give up an average of 21 points per game to LSU's 15. Bama has not been very effective shutting down opposing offenses, and they haven't pressured the QB very well with just 14 sacks this year, 5 of them against Houston. This may be the key to the game. If Bama cannot find a way to shut down LSU's running game and keep Matt Flynn off balance, they may find it hard to keep the Tigers from scoring on almost every possession. They may also find it tough to win enough time of possession to keep pace on the scoreboard when their talented offense finally gets the ball.
Others
Bama's special teams play can be dangerous, with some speedy punt return specialists in Lowe and Arenas. And Bama has the fewest penalties of any SEC school besides Vandy, averaging only 5.5 penalites per game. LSU averages almost 9.
Both teams have proven that they can play four quarters of football and seem to be focused on conditioning. LSU likely has an advantage in overall stregnth and speed.
One more interesting tidbit: when the Tigers and the Tide have met since 1970, the home team is 11-25-1. That's a .311 win percentage for the home team.
As a reminder, the game is in Tuscaloosa this year. We won't be paying attention to this stat next year - in case you're wondering.
Analysis
Overall, the biggest advantage LSU has in this game may be the road they've had to travel thus far. Where Bama's toughest game came in a loss to Georgia, LSU had to wade through Virginia Tech, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. The Tigers are battle-tested. Bama hasn't exactly had an Ohio State-style cake walk, but as it turns out the teams they've played (besides Georgia) aren't the class of the conference.
Both offensive units are capable of putting 40 points up without much difficulty. Defense, however, will be the key to this game. The Tigers need to rattle Wilson by creating hurries, hitting him hard enough to make him think of LaRon Landry last year, and sacking him 4 or 5 times. He hasn't faced a defense as tough as LSU's - not even close.
Conversely, Bama has not played tough defense this year. And they haven't had to play Florida, or Auburn (yet) or Kentucky. LSU's offense, however, has put up an average of 37 points against defenses that are much tougher than Bama's.
If LSU can minimize dumb penalties and continue an impressive turnover ratio, then this game won't be as close as some might think.
PREDICTION
Early Doucet, who is marching up the SEC reception leader board even after missing multiple games due to injury, will show up D.J. Hall and have a 100 yard plus night. Flynn will have another career game, completing over 60% of his throws and having a fine night running as well. Craig Steltz will lead tacklers again and may get his fifth pick of the year. And Patrick Fisher will punt less than 4 times. Unfortunately, one of those punts will be returned for a score in the first half. No matter, Tigers win easily now that they're in the downslope of a brutal SEC schedule.
LSU 41 Bama 17
Alabama is 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the SEC, sharing the lead in the SEC West with the Tigers. Bama's wins came against Western Carolina (1-8), Vanderbilt (5-3), Arkansas (5-3), Houston (5-3), Mississippi (2-7), and Tennessee (5-3). Their losses came at home against Georgia (6-2) and on the road against Florida State (5-3) - two losses in a row.
Offense
Overall, the Tide have a reasonable offense, gaining 413 yards and 31.5 points per game. QB John Parker Wilson has had a decent year, throwing for over 1800 yards so far with a 119.4 rating. Wilson and Flynn match up fairly well across the board. Wilson's been protected fairly well all year, with only 14 sacks against the Tide, five less than LSU's 19 allowed. Offensively, this is Bama's key to the game. If the Bama offensive line can protect Wilson long enough to have a receiver break free, then they have talent enough to march down the field and score. Bama has a fairly balanced attack, but relies mostly on the passing game with D.J. Hall, statistically the most prolific receiver in the SEC, averaging nearly 100 yards per game. Bama's leading rusher is Terry Grant, an all-purpose back with 87 yards per game on the ground, 15 receiving, and 8 touchdowns.
Honestly, the Tide and the Tigers offenses have put up similar numbers all year. Total production is 413 to 435 (Tide to Tigers), points per game is 31.5 to 36.8, and turnovers are 9 to 8. LSU relies a bit more heavily on the run than Bama, but not significantly so.
Defense
From a defensive standpoint, the two teams aren't as similar. Bama's defense gives up 355 yards per game, 131 on the ground and 224 in the air. That's significantly more than LSU's defense allows (232, 72, 131). They give up an average of 21 points per game to LSU's 15. Bama has not been very effective shutting down opposing offenses, and they haven't pressured the QB very well with just 14 sacks this year, 5 of them against Houston. This may be the key to the game. If Bama cannot find a way to shut down LSU's running game and keep Matt Flynn off balance, they may find it hard to keep the Tigers from scoring on almost every possession. They may also find it tough to win enough time of possession to keep pace on the scoreboard when their talented offense finally gets the ball.
Others
Bama's special teams play can be dangerous, with some speedy punt return specialists in Lowe and Arenas. And Bama has the fewest penalties of any SEC school besides Vandy, averaging only 5.5 penalites per game. LSU averages almost 9.
Both teams have proven that they can play four quarters of football and seem to be focused on conditioning. LSU likely has an advantage in overall stregnth and speed.
One more interesting tidbit: when the Tigers and the Tide have met since 1970, the home team is 11-25-1. That's a .311 win percentage for the home team.
As a reminder, the game is in Tuscaloosa this year. We won't be paying attention to this stat next year - in case you're wondering.
Analysis
Overall, the biggest advantage LSU has in this game may be the road they've had to travel thus far. Where Bama's toughest game came in a loss to Georgia, LSU had to wade through Virginia Tech, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. The Tigers are battle-tested. Bama hasn't exactly had an Ohio State-style cake walk, but as it turns out the teams they've played (besides Georgia) aren't the class of the conference.
Both offensive units are capable of putting 40 points up without much difficulty. Defense, however, will be the key to this game. The Tigers need to rattle Wilson by creating hurries, hitting him hard enough to make him think of LaRon Landry last year, and sacking him 4 or 5 times. He hasn't faced a defense as tough as LSU's - not even close.
Conversely, Bama has not played tough defense this year. And they haven't had to play Florida, or Auburn (yet) or Kentucky. LSU's offense, however, has put up an average of 37 points against defenses that are much tougher than Bama's.
If LSU can minimize dumb penalties and continue an impressive turnover ratio, then this game won't be as close as some might think.
PREDICTION
Early Doucet, who is marching up the SEC reception leader board even after missing multiple games due to injury, will show up D.J. Hall and have a 100 yard plus night. Flynn will have another career game, completing over 60% of his throws and having a fine night running as well. Craig Steltz will lead tacklers again and may get his fifth pick of the year. And Patrick Fisher will punt less than 4 times. Unfortunately, one of those punts will be returned for a score in the first half. No matter, Tigers win easily now that they're in the downslope of a brutal SEC schedule.
LSU 41 Bama 17
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)