Eating a Little Crow - Jefferson was Better than my Quick Thoughts

I went back and reviewed every single Jordan Jefferson pass play from the Auburn game.  I looked for Jefferson's timing and also his accuracy, catch or not.  I was impressed with what I saw, in retrospect.  And I've changed my mind on Jefferson's game.

1st Quarter

1.  Complete to K. Williams in flat for nice gain.  Throw a little late and behind.
2.  Complete to Tolliver.  Throw behind, Tolliver bobbled it but held on.
3.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Very nice pass, Tolliver was interfered with/tripped.
4.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Throw very low and behind.
5.  Incomplete to LaFell.  Throw low and behind, but LaFell should have made the catch.
6.  Complete to Tolliver - nice pass.
7.  Complete to Tolliver.  Good throw, maybe a tad late.
8.  Complete to Tolliver.  Nice pass.
9.  Complete to Lafell.  Throw was high and behind on a bubble screen.
10. Incomplete to Scott.  Scrambling and basically threw it away.
11.  Couldn't find open man - scrambled for a touchdown.

2nd Quarter

12.  Complete to Lafell.  Nice pass.
13.  Complete to Lafell.
14.  Scrambled for first down after a very deep drop.
15.  Complete to Tolliver.  Very nice throw on a comeback route.
16.  Complete to Tolliver.  Another nice throw.
17.  Complete to Lafell.  Nice screen pass.
18.  Incomplete to nobody - threw it away after scramble.
19. Complete to Tolliver. 
20.  Scramble out of bounds no gain.
21.  Incomplete to Lafell.  Hit as he threw, way over Lafell's head.
22.  Complete to Scott on screen for no gain.
23.  Sacked after 3.5 seconds in pocket.
24.  Incomplete to Chris Mitchell.  Very short.  Hit just after he threw.
25.  Complete to Tolliver.  Nice pass.
26.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Thrown well behind.

3rd Quarter

27.  Incomplete to Lafell.  Good pass in tight situation.  Lafell dropped the ball.
28.  Complete to Holliday.  Nice pass in the only place Holliday could've caught it.
29.  Complete to Lafell for TD.  Very nice pass, taking advantage of Lafell's height advantage.
30.  Incomplete to Shepard.  He just dropped it.
31.  Complete to Randle.  Fantastic throw and catch.
32.  Negated by penalty, but good completion to Dickson.
33.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Not a good choice or pass - well covered.
34.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Slightly late throw, Tolliver dropped it.
35.  Complete to Tolliver.

4th Quarter

36.  Complete to Chris Mitchell.  Very low pass negating possible yards after catch.
37.  Complete to D. Peterson.  Good pass.
38.  Complete to Holliday.
39.  Sacked from a blitz.

Dear Jordan Jefferson,


     How are you?  I hope you didn't take too big of a hit on that last play.  Anyway, just wanted to tell you that I was completely wrong about your performance against Auburn.  I thought you were just sorta OK.  Turns out, you had a very nice game and executed the gameplan that was given to you very, very well.


     I'm particularly impressed with your ability to run yourself out of trouble most of the time.  And that fumble was clearly just "one of those things" and not reflective of your attention to preventing turnovers.


     One thing I noticed:  you threw to Tolliver 14 times, but only threw to Dickson once.  Wazzup with that?  I'm sure there's a good explanation.


     While I'd still like to see more throws 25 yards or so over the middle, I think the offensive line is giving you time.  So, eventually, we're going to see the long stuff.  With that in mind, I'm going to have a little crow for dinner tonight and call it good.


     Have a great week.  And GEAUX TIGERS!


Respectfully,


Jeff

QUICK THOUGHTS: LSU DOMINATES AUBURN

LSU's defense (and Auburn's penalties) gave plenty of space for a still-inconsistent LSU offense to work its way to a much improved four quarters of football.

But I'm still staying realistic about expectations for this season.  I saw plenty to be happy about in this game.  But I also saw plenty to keep in perspective.

THINGS I'M HAPPY ABOUT

• The Defense.  Just look at the stats if you didn't watch the game closely.  LSU's defense will keep them in any game.  And we all know that defenses win championships.  Which is why Florida and Bama are still at the top of the heap.
• LSU's cornerbacks are really good and really deep.  Chris Hawkins' interception was awesome.
• Turnover ratio.  Although the Tigers didn't take advantage of every turnover in terms of putting 7 on the board, a 3:1 turnover ratio is smokin' good.
• Russell Shepard finally broke one.  I gotta admit - I was getting tired of seeing him in predictable situations, getting hit hard by Eltoro Freeman, who was obviously spying him.  But he finally got the seam he needed and it was over.  If he gets a chance to complete a few passes for big yards out of the Wildcat (WildTiger, whatever), then we're going to see more of him racing into the end zone.
• Reuben Randle's great grab.
• Jarrett Lee getting some snaps, making a great throw to Lafell (after a scary throw to Tolliver...)
• Jordan Jefferson remains rock solid in terms of his care of the football (except for the fumble), his ability to not make big mistakes (except for the fumble), and his knack for getting good, important yards with his legs (except when he fumbles).  Seriously - Jefferson's fumble aside, he's a solid QB. 
• The announcers said it.  I've been hoping it's true.  LSU is still improving.  If that continues, that's a very good sign for this postseason and next year, obviously.

THINGS I'M KEEPING IN PERSPECTIVE

• Auburn is not good.  I thought they were a lot better than they are.  And mostly, they're not good because their defense is not what it has been in the past.  So when their offense sputtered, it cost them big time.
• Jordan Jefferson is still not throwing the ball all that well.  He made some good throws (TD to Tolliver).  He also made a lot of poor throws, some of which were dropped, some of which were not.   He's also still taking way to0 long to throw downfield and his timing is not great.  Why am I picking on this?  Because Auburn is not good.  Jefferson looked OK against a weak defense and a team that basically gave up in the second half.  Bama has a much better defense than Auburn.  So does Ole Miss.  Right now, Jefferson is solid, but not good enough.  I still think his job is not secure heading into the off-season if he doesn't begin to really stretch the field on a regular basis.
• No.  Pass.  Rush.  Seriously.  Two sacks and I was ECSTATIC!  That's sad.  Chris Todd had tons of time to throw.  It's a good thing LSU's secondary is so good and Chris Todd isn't.

BOTTOM LINE:  I'm stoked that the Tigers beat Auburn and still control their own destiny.  But I'm maintaining that LSU will be a 2-loss team at best, and more likely a 3-loss team when all is said and done.  Because a QB that doesn't scare defensive coordinators and a defense that can't pressure the opposing QB is a recipe for exploitation by top caliber teams.  Florida has already done it.  Alabama will do it next. 

I hope Jordan Jefferson and the LSU defensive front improve greatly against Tulane and just shuts me up against Bama, Ole Miss and Arkansas (Mallett is a good QB).

Tough to be pessimistic about a 31-10 dominating effort of Auburn.  But that's where I'm at.

SOAPBOX: Sober Analysis

LSU 26, Auburn 21

Since I'm "late to need" on this edition of the Soapbox, I'm going to skip all the obvious stuff. I'm not going to recap the scary first half, the fateful concussion, the details of the amazing rebirth of J. Lee, the Heisman-like performance of Charles Scott, or the ballsy play calling of Miles and Crowton.

Instead, I'm going to focus on one thing. What, if anything, do we know now about the LSU quarterback situation. And who should "start" against Mississippi State this weekend.

All of the positive attention is focused on Jarrett Lee right now. And he deserves it. He had a fantastic second half after stinking up Jordan-Hare in the first.

Any LSU fan paying attention was cringing during halftime at the thought that Miles and Crowton might actually decide to play Lee again after he threw that really bad pick-six. That was a horrid pass. Face it - we were all calling for his head and hoping like hell Jordan Jefferson was maturing fast!

But Lee was a completely different QB in the second half. His throws had zip and purpose and his confidence was sky high. What's more, Lee looked like he'd been there before. Many times before, in fact. He looked poised and completely in control. And he threw some very nice passes.



So Lee is the man now, correct? Well, not so fast.

Jarrett Lee had a great second half. That does not erase his first half. Nor does it erase the fact that he's still a redshirt freshman.

Lee's second half also doesn't erase the fact that Andrew Hatch, while not lighting up the night with his passing, was playing a pretty good football game on his own, particularly with his legs. Hatch ended half a game with 40 net yards rushing and some of those yards involved some pretty nifty moves and very good downfield vision. Take away two sacks, and I think his total is closer to 51 yards.

So, if Hatch is healthy on Saturday, who gets the start? And does it matter?

I'll answer the second question first. Yes. It does matter. It's not everything. If both quarterbacks are healthy, they likely both get equal PT. But the starter is the front runner. He's the guy the coaches have the most confidence in. And that WILL matter to both of these guys. Maybe most to Jarrett Lee. If Hatch is full speed and Lee gets the start, the coaches are telling Lee that he's stepped into the next level. It just may be the confidence-building event that turns this redshirt freshman into an above average SEC quarterback by season's end.



Of course, it also tells Andrew Hatch that he's had his chance, and as luck would have it, his injury gave Lee some daylight and the kid took advantage. Hatch has to know that Lee's arm is stronger and his upside is higher. So it won't come as a surprise to him, but he'll still be disappointed at losing his chance to win the job outright.

So, yes. I think it does matter. It's not everything, but it's certainly important.

Who starts? I think it's Lee. Two reasons.

First, LSU needs a deep passing threat from it's QB more than it needs good running skills. Lee runs well enough to evade the sack. And the LSU RB cadre is good enough (understatement) to carry the rushing game.

Secondly, as I hinted before, I think Lee has earned the right at a chance to take the job for good. Hatch has had three starts. He's looked adequate, if wanting on throws past 15 yards. Now Lee gets his shot.

But this opens up another idea. If Hatch is hurt, what about Jordan Jefferson? Does he get significant PT?



I think he does if LSU puts the game away in the third or fourth quarter by 3 touchdowns or more. If not, then I don't think Miles and company will be able to risk the game in the hands of a kid who more than likely does not have the full offense at his disposal.

If Mississippi State keeps the game within reach, say less than 17 points, I don't see Jefferson sniffing the field until the final minutes, if at all.

So, the most important thing that can happen, assuming Hatch is injured, is that LSU crushes Mississippi State on Saturday night. Because, first of all, it would be fun to watch. And, second of all, if Hatch is injured, Jefferson needs some quality PT against an SEC defense.

Back to Lee. What do I expect? I expect some turbulence. I hope for the best, but I expect he's going to throw some more interceptions, and mishandle a few game situations, and generally make some folks wonder why they were so high on him.

Then, he's going to play lights out, and throw 40 yard laser beams to LaFell and Byrd and Toliver in full stride. All in the same game. Because that's what young QBs generally do. They play inconsistently.

It's up to the coaching staff to keep his head on straight and call the plays that help him succeed the most.

I'm optimistic about Lee. I have a feeling he might take advantage of this next game to put some serious distance between himself and Hatch.

But I'm not expecting it. Instead, I'm expecting some more turbulence.

And I'm expecting this fella to smooth all that out like a freight train on a copper penny...

Oh, Go Ahead. Watch it Again!

AUBURN PREDICTION: Quickie

LSU will win this game with far more ease than many folks are thinking.

Here's why.

1. Auburn's offense is bad. It won't get that much better in a week.

2. LSU's offense is good and hasn't been let out of it's cage yet. That changes on Saturday.

3. Andrew Hatch is a better QB than he's getting credit for. I predict he suprises some folks.

4. LSU's defense is great, and deep, and the young DBs are playing better than expected (at least by me). As long as we don't lose many more LBs...

5. Auburn's defense is not as deep as LSU's and our offense will wear them down in the fourth quarter.

Stuff I'm worried about.

1. Quarterback play. If I'm wrong about Hatch, then it's a toss up. I could easily be wrong.

2. Special teams, particularly punting. If this is a defensive struggle, our punting game could very well be the weak link that breaks the chain.

PREDICTION:

Close game at halftime, LSU by 14 or more at game's end. LSU 24, Auburn 10.

FURTHER THOUGHTS: Auburn

Couple more thoughts on the LSU/Auburn game.

Dorsey: There's a lot of discussion on fan forums and in the media about the Aubrun chop block on Glenn Dorsey. After watching it a few times, I have zero doubt that the block was premeditated by the two linemen. Add this to the heinous holding that was going on inside the line and it's obvious that you cannot rule out coaching involvement, if not outright support. I was sort of understanding about the hit during the game. Now, I think Tubby should discipline the players involved.

The Spot: I could not believe my eyes when the refs spotted that 3rd down play on the last drive. The gave LSU at least a half-yard. It wasn't even close. I'm confident that LSU would've picked up the first down regardless. But noone should want to win a game based on a call that bad.

The Call and the Clock: Flynn broke the huddle with about :18 seconds. There were :03 seconds remaining when the pass was caught. So, I think it was a good (if very gutsy) call. But I think Flynn took too much time getting the snap. Had Byrd dropped the pass, we still had :01 second, but honestly, we should've had :03 seconds based on the clock running an extra :02 after the play. It was very, very close - and it was very, very ballsy. But I think it was a good call, especially since it WORKED!

All season long, I've been noticing that the offense and defense are taking a very long time at the line of scrimmage to get set for the play. Offensive audibles seem like a second huddle sometimes, and defensive shifts seem late and excessive as well. I'm no coach, but I wonder if that's not a weakness that could be easily exploited by opposing coaches, shifting and moving, causing bogus adjustments and eating up time. How many times have we seen timeouts to avoid delay of game penalties? A lot.

"We're a second half team." - Matt Flynn. I think that's an understatement. All season long, the Tigers have improved and stepped up as the game has worn on, with the possible exception of Kentucky. The team seems poised and confident and I have faith in their ability to overcome almost any reasonable halftime deficit.

Whew - OK, now back to work.

SOAPBOX: While I Was Out...

Well, if ANYONE is still reading this blog, I apologize. The short story is that I was sent on duty without internet access. I'm back now.

I'm so far behind that I'm not going to try to catch up completely. And, since I didn't even watch most of the Kentucky debacle, I won't even try to offer an intelligent analysis of that.

So, here's what I'm thinking.

OFFENSE: Matt Flynn, after a tough start, played very well against Auburn. Even with a few key LaDropped passes, Flynn's poise and leadership showed itself again and again as the game wore on. His running looked strong as well. Early Doucet, even less than 100%, proved how invaluable he is to the team. The offensive line continues to struggle protecting Flynn. And RP didn't really look like he contributed much. And, of course, he fumbled the damn ball at a critical time.

DEFENSE: The weakest link continues to be the lack of a credible pass rush combined with a linebacker corps that is strong against the run but not so strong covering the pass. Craig Steltz continues to make a lot of great plays and the secondary has, for the most part, avoided giving up the big play. But without a good pass rush, the Tigers will find it very tough to keep any reasonable quarterback from scoring. Plus the run will open up. And what is up with the missed tackles. I get the feeling that the defense is over-pursuing - allowing agile runners and QBs to step aside, make them miss, and turn a blown play into yardage. If we're blitzing, it doesn't seem to be working.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Fisher is a great punter. Crutchfield seems to be kicking well. David is a good field goal/extra point man. But the punt return team is mediocre bordering on scary. Kickoff returns have been modest at best as well.

OVERALL: I'm uneasy.

THE GOOD: LSU is 7-1, with wins against Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Florida and Auburn. The offense has pulled it together and Doucet seems to be back. Matt Flynn may be peaking at exactly the right time. Penalties are down as well. And our coaches aren't scared of taking chances. This team doesn't quit and I really think Flynn's poise has something to do with that.

THE BAD: It appears the gig is up on the defense. Their weaknesses have been exposed and they've been proven to be beatable, even the front four. Dorsey took a horrible chop block and we'll see how that plays out for him, but even with him the Tiger defense has had a tough year getting to the QB. Thank goodness our secondary has been able to provide good coverage.

THE UGLY: There isn't any ugly. Just an uneasy feeling that the rest of the season could go either way. I would hope that the week off will provide the defense with enough rest to return to some of its early season prowess. But I have a feeling Bo Pelini's schemes have been outed, and the D-line and linebackers aren't able to stop a decent QB.

CONCLUSION: The rest of the season will probably rise or set on the offense's ability to put up points. The defense will probably continue to put up one or two great 3 and outs per half, but they will also be had once or twice. I'm guessing Bama and Arkansas, for sure, will score more than 10. And Ole Miss has put points on some pretty decent opposition this season. But the offense has been productive, even when the defense has failed to come up with a stop.

So this season may come down to the offense coming through for the defense's weakness, which noone would have predicted at the beginning (or even first four weeks) of the season.

Based on the offensive production against Florida and Auburn, I think LSU still has a shot to win it all. But the defense is going to have to step up with a few more stops and a couple more sacks and takeaways per game.