LSU Fans: Time to Grow Up

I've been wanting to write this post for awhile. But I needed some time and perspective to sink in before I dove in. Because it's an emotional issue for many folks and I didn't want to overstate my case.

Simply put, my case is this.

Many LSU fans need to grow up.

Kneejerk Reaction: About Like I Expected

So LSU is 9-3. Not the best season the Tigers have had. But exactly what I expected.

Tonight's win against Arkansas almost perfectly encapsulated the season. Poor tackling, dumbfounding play calling, mediocre line play on both offense and defense, mediocre QB play, good-great special teams play, 3rd and Chavis, and Coach Miles sounding dumb while interviewed.

I am not in the coach-hater camp. I think Miles is a great recruiter and I think he runs the team well. But this team has too much talent to not challenge Bama for the West next year. So I do think Miles needs to have a 10 win season next year. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

There's an Internet full of negativitity out there. Here are some positive points to ponder.

1. LSU won all the games they should've won except Ole Miss. And they were in that game until the last second - literally.

2. LSU was never out of any game, including losses to the #1 and #2 teams in the country.

3. Stevan Ridley is clearly a valid SEC RB for next season and he is getting valuable experience this season.

4. Josh Jasper is clutch. He's back next season.

5. Jordan Jefferson heads into the post-season an SEC veteran. That is huge. And he will be pushed in the off-season by Lee and also by Chris Garrett.

6. Deangelo Peterson looks to be the next pass-catching tight end a LSU. He looks good.

Nine wins is a good season. It's as good as I expected and, when taken into context of injuries and the SEC parity this season, I think it's a great result.

Next year - different story.

For now, it's a couple weeks off and some focus on the bowl matchup.

KNEE JERK REACTION: WTF Was That?

What a confusing, disappointing game from start to finish.  LSU looked awful most of the game.  Ole Miss owned the stat sheet.  Dexter McCluster had his way with the LSU defense.  And yet LSU could have won the football game.   It's hard to describe to someone who didn't watch the game how unlikely an LSU win would've been.  And yet they almost did win.  You, know.  Except for the WTF moment at the end.

SOAPBOX: Get Well Soon, Jordan Jefferson.

Judging from the box score only, you'd be very surprised to find out that LSU actually beat Louisiana Tech last night. It's an ugly looking set of statistics for the Tigers. But the ugliest line in my opinion is the time of possession stat. Because it tells the story of why the Bulldogs were able to make a game of it.

LA Tech had the football for 36:20. LSU for 23:40. 12.5 minutes difference. LA Tech ran 84 offensive plays to LSU's 52.

Viewed from that perspective, it's amazing the LSU defense was able to keep LA Tech out of the endzone as much as they did.

One look back - Then moving on

I was going to disect the Bama game and look in detail at all the good and bad stuff I found. But what would that accomplish, really? Bama has a very fine defense and some very good offensive players and a great head coach. Not much else to say. And I'm not going to talk anymore about the interception call because no one with half a brain disputes that it was a significantly poor call in a huge game that was still competitive.

It's not Bama's fault that they were handed a huge gift by thr replay official.

So I'm moving on. Let's talk about the future.

It's critical that the Tigers retain composure and stay motivated to win. Because a great bowl berth against a quality opponent is very important to next year's season. The freshmen and sophomores need that experience. And recruiting needs another Top 10 finish.

The next game against LA Tech will be critical and it won't be automatic. I don't know the injury situation yet (working too hard) but I hope JJ is back for LA Tech. I think we can win with Lee, but JJ needs another start and maybe another big throwing game.

Ole Miss no longer concern me as much as they did in the early season, but they are very capable of upsetting the Tigers.

So focus and a new set of goals are critical to the rest of the season.

I mean, let's face it. I called this a 2 loss season at best anyway. So I hope the team agrees that 11-2 is a fantastic record. And wouldn't it be great to have LSU spank Boise State in a bowl game? Personally, I hope that's who LSU plays.

But we're not there yet. What was the word? Oh yeah.

Focus.

LSU 15, Bama 24: Quick Thoughts

How'd we do with my recipe?

1.  2nd and 6 or less.  Actually, the Tigers accomplished this about 6 or 7 times in the game.   They also had plenty of 2nd and 10 or more situations, but 1st down plays were generally pretty good.

2.  200+ passing and 2:1 TD to Int ratio.  Well, the Tigers only managed 158 yards in the air and one touchdown, with one interception late by Jarett Lee.  Not good.  And this did play a large factor in the game outcome in my opinion.

3.  Win the turnover war.  Actually, LSU did win the turnover war.  But the refs didn't see it that way.  Peterson's interception was denied.  So each team had 1 interception.  Not good for LSU in this game.

4.  Take advantage of big plays.  LSU had a lack of big plays throughout the game on offense.  Scott had one big run, and the defense gave the Tigers great field position via some fantastic punting and a safety.  The Tigers scored a TD after the safety and punt.  But LSU did not have any offensive big plays.

5.  Penalties and Luck.  Do I have to say it?   All the Bama folks will guffaw.  Because they don't want to believe it.  And I am not one to blame the refs.  But the officiating in this game was terrible (we'll cover that more later) and the interception by Peterson that was denied after the replay clearly showed what an athletic play he made - well, that denied LSU the chance to win the football game.  It changed the momentum completely.  And it ended soon after that.  From a luck standpoint - well, I don't think good or bad luck played much of a factor either way.  LSU certainly didn't get lucky in the game at any time.  And besides maybe one possible interference call that could've been called against Peterson, the calls all went Bama's way.

Let me be clear.  Bama is a better football team because they have a better defense and a slightly better offensive line.  And Ingram and Jones are fantastic.  Bama played a very physical, very good football game.  But the refs interfered in the flow of the game in at least two, and maybe three instances.  So LSU was denied the chance to stay in the football game when the refs denied Peterson his amazing play.

Lots of apparently minor injuries for LSU.  Jefferson didn't play a lot of the 2nd half.  Scott hurt his shoulder I think.  Peterson didn't play much of the 4th quarter.  Black went down for a bit.

Lots to talk about.  The offsides flinch by Barksdale, the lack of sacks by the defense, the awesome punting by LSU, Stevan Ridley, Jarrett Lee, LSU's offensive line, the 2-point conversion attempt, the poor clock management that ended up putting the Tigers in the 4th quarter with no timeouts.   Lots to examine later.

The Tigers played their butts off.  They deserved a better effort from the officials.  And the Bamatards that honestly don't think that interception was inbounds and/or changed the game - well, congrats on the win.  I'm rooting for Florida.

Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient's Four and Five

The first ingredient was: 2nd and 6 or Less.

The second ingredient was: 200+ and 2:1.

The third ingredient is: Win the Turnover War.

The fourth ingredient is:  Take Advantage of Big Plays.

Long drives are going to be very tough to sustain.  The Tigers will not likely be able to get to the endzone without great field position.  And it will be difficult to get great field position without some big plays.  And by big plays, I mean offense, defense and special teams.  When they happen, the Tigers need to convert.  LSU needs to have a plan to capitalize on momentum-shifting big plays and get points on the board.

On offense, I would expect the big plays to come via the passing game.  As I have discussed earlier, LSU has enough offensive weaponry, in the persons of Lafell, Toliver, Shepard, Holliday, Scott and Randle, to gain some big yardage a few times in Saturday's game. 

On defense, LSU will obviously be looking for turnovers.  But as we've hinted, Bama is almost as stingy as LSU in this realm.  So the defense will also need to come up with some big stops.  The Tigers need to force some 3 and outs in Bama territory, and also stop the Tide from scoring 7 in the Red Zone.
 
Special teams may be the best place for LSU to make big plays.  LSU's punt return stats are great.  But the most interesting stat is kickoff returns.  Bama is last in the SEC on kickoff coverage.  And, while LSU is last in kickoff returns, most of that is because the Tigers seldom get a chance to return one - teams have either sky kicked or otherwise avoided letting LSU's deep men get the football.  If Alabama makes the mistake of kicking to Holliday and Brooks, perhaps we can have some excitement on Saturday.
 
The fifth ingredient is:  Penalties and Luck.
 
Regardless of whether you believe Bama gets referee preference, the stats for penalties between LSU and Bama lately are hard to dispute.  Basically, LSU gives up somewhere between 40 and 60 yards a game to Bama in penalties.  The Tigers need to reverse this stat.  While the Tigers can't force the refs to call penalties on Bama, they can make it difficult to call them on LSU. 
 
And Luck.  I'm talking about fumbles that bounce the right way - back into Tiger hands.  I'm talking about dropped interceptions.  I'm talking about Jefferson seeing a blown coverage in time to take advantage of it before being sacked.  I'm talking about McElroy getting sacked just before he's able to find a wide open receiver in blown coverage.  LSU needs Lady Luck to be wearing purple on Saturday.
 
In summary, LSU needs solid first down gains, a productive passing game, an advantage in turnovers, some big plays that result in scores, and some luck with the refs and the football.
 
LSU needs all of these things to one degree or another.  Otherwise, Bama's defense will beat LSU's offense and the Tigers lose.
 
I don't like it.  But that's how I see it.
 
Not an easy recipe.

Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient Three

The first ingredient was: 2nd and 6 or Less.

The second ingredient was: 200+ and 2:1.

The third ingredient is:  Win the Turnover War.

It's going to be very difficult for LSU to find the endzone Saturday.  It will be even tougher if the Tigers give up the football more than the Tide.  Not only will turnovers negate opportunities for LSU to score, but they will in many cases put Bama in great field position.  

Currently the Tigers are +9 in turnover ratio, leading the SEC.  Alabama is +7, which is good for 3rd.  In raw numbers, the Tigers and Tide both have 16 takeaways, but LSU has only turned the ball over 7 times to Bama's 9.  The difference there is in fumbles lost, where LSU has for a long time been very, very stingy.

Statistically, not much there. 

About all LSU can do is continue to not turn the ball over. 

That, and put tons of pressure on McElroy so that he throws a couple of picks.  Pressure on the QB has not been the Tigers' strong suit this season.  While LSU is dead last in sacks, Alabama is first in the SEC in sacks against.  Not a comforting statistic if we're hoping to pressure Bama's QB.

If the Tigers lose the turnover battle to Bama, it will be next to impossible to win the game. 

If the Tigers win the turnover battle, they will have an opportunity to score touchdowns (probably) and burn clock. 

This ingredient will require a lot of luck.

Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient Two

The first ingredient was:  2nd and 6 or Less.

The second ingredient is:  200+ and 2:1.

That is, more than 200 yards passing and a passing TD to Int ratio of at least 2:1.

LSU will have to establish a threatening passing game against the Bama defense in order to allow any kind of balance in their offense.  Normally, the Tigers try to establish the power running game first.  Lately, however, I would argue that the passing game has assisted in opening up the running game.  And that's definitely the only recipe for success against Alabama's formidable defensive front 7.

I'm not insinuating that Alabama's pass defense is a team weakness.  Because it's not.  It's simply the most vulnerable part of a very good defense.  Plus, LSU's Jordan Jefferson has a talented group of receivers to throw to.  If Jefferson can get rid of the ball quickly and accurately, he stands a very good chance of finding some mismatches in the secondary on first and second down.  Again, not because Bama's DBs aren't good.  But because LSU's receivers are very good. 

And, of course, a demonstrated ability to move the ball through the air 6-9 yards at at time (or more) will force Bama's talented linebackers to back-the-fuck-up.  And that will be the only real possibility for LSU to find some seams on the ground and let the talented Tiger backs gain some yards and eat up some clock.

If the Tigers can get 200+ yards through the air and throw at least two passing touchdowns for every pick, this will be a completely winnable football game.  If the Tigers can't get the passing game going, which will likely result in a large number of 3 and out situations, Defeat will be lurking in the visitor's locker room.

I think Jordan Jefferson is ready.  And I think our receivers match up very well with Bama's secondary.

LSU's Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient One

I said early in the season that I thought LSU would lose at least 2 games, maybe 3 or even 4, this year.  The two almost certain losses were Florida and Bama. 

While I still think the odds are against LSU beating Bama on Saturday, I think they are far more likely to pull off a victory than I originally thought.  Mostly because Bama's offense is not as good as I thought it would be.  But also because LSU's defense is better than I thought it would be.

For the next five days, I'm going to offer a simple (well, maybe not simple) 5 ingredient recipe to an LSU victory on Saturday.

Ingredient #1:  2nd and 6 or Less. 

This is the toughest part of the recipe by far.  Bama is not going to make it easy for LSU to pound 4 yards up the middle (or even around the end) on 1st down.  Bama's defensive line is stout.  Bama's linebackers are excellent.  And LSU's offensive line has not dominated any defensive line, except maybe Tulane's, all season long.  I seriously doubt Charles Scott is going to be able to average 4-5 yards per carry.

So the coaching staff is going to have to have a creative first down gameplan, and Jordan Jefferson is going to have to execute it.  What might that look like?  Well, I hope it's creative enough to elude our imagination.  But I'll take a stab at it.  I think LSU's first down gameplan will involve a mixture of play action from the power I formation, quick slants to Richard Dickson, bubble screens to Toliver and Lafell, and a few novelty plays, like shuffle passes and reverses and maybe a halfback pass (Shepard to Holliday?).  And, of course, there will be a dose of Charles Scott (or Stevan Ridley?) up the middle.  But hopefully it will be infrequent and therefore more successful.

Why is this ingredient important?  Because LSU has not been good on 3rd and long.  And Alabama has a damned good defense.  And 2nd and 10, with a "meh" offensive line and a still-young QB is not a great recipe against the Tide.  However, shorter second down situations with any kind of frequency will allow Crowton and Miles to have fun with the offensive weapons at their disposal.  And there are a lot of weapons, especially in the receiving corps. 

Achievable?  Yes.  Likely?  Great question.  The rest of the ingredients will help make this more likely.

About Last Night...

As I hinted at in my last post, Tulane does not have a good football program.  And LSU, as you would expect, dominated the Green Wave on Saturday night.

As a Tiger fan, it was fun to watch the replay early this morning.  Although the Tigers stalled a couple of times, and the Greenies moved the ball a couple of times, the game wasn't even remotely in question.

The offense seemed to be running on all cylinders.  Jefferson, although he threw a pretty bad interception, had another strong overall performance.  Charles Scott had well over 100 yards rushing.  Russell Shepard generated some excitement and a touchdown.  And Stevan Ridley gave everyone a glimpse of our possible starting TB next year. 

The defense was swarming, and the Tigers actually had a pass rush again.  Patrick Peterson picked one off to stop a potential scoring drive.  Rahim Alem pressured the QB all night long.  And the LSU linebackers - all four of them - were lights out.  Absolutely fantastic.  Even the backup defensive linemen, like Lavar Edwards, got to shine a bit.

And special teams, minus the punting itself, were outstanding.  Even with unusually short kickoffs, the coverage remained rock solid.  Daniel Graff blocked a Tulane punt, leading to Shepard's eventual score.  And Trindon Holliday twice reminded the nation why most teams prefer to punt out of bounds when he's back to receive.

Great game.  But let's keep it in perspective.  Tulane is very bad, particularly on defense.  The Tigers, minus a couple of errors, should've put up another 2-3 touchdowns. 

Next weekend, the Tigers face a challenge of the opposite kind.  Alabama has a very strong, very talented defense coached by a great staff.  They will be every bit as athletic, deep and well-coached as LSU.  And the game is on their home turf.

I can't wait.   The talk has already begun on the internet sites about the defensive struggle next Saturday in Tuscaloosa.  And it's an understandable expectation.  But I'm not buying it.  Bama has a very strong defense.  Very talented.  In fact, I think Bama's defense is better than Florida's.  But, if Jordan Jefferson has a good game, I think LSU's passing weapons can open things up against Bama, expose some vulnerabilities, and score points.  Jefferson doesn't have to be phenomenal.  But, for my prediction to happen, he has to give a good performance in terms of ball security, confidence, and not getting rattled by sacks and a pick.

Don't expect 400 yards of offense on Saturday, Tiger fans.  But I think, based on LSU's very strong turnover ratio (+10 at the moment) and a receiving corps that could start for any team in the nation, LSU has a great chance to ruin Bama's scoring defense stats at least a little bit.

Just don't let last night set you up for next Saturday.  Because the difficulty of the two games could hardly be any more different. 

Shit I Didn't Know About Tulane

Basically, I'm from New Orleans.  I mean, not the city, but what some consider an outer suburb of the metropolitan area.  I used to go to Tulane games in high school because (a) we got in for $1 with our high school IDs, and (b) Baton Rouge was not even close to my allowable driving radius as a 16 year old.

I used to pull for Tulane.  The high school QB that I played with was recruited and played there.  I really want to like Tulane.  Despite some of their irrationally arrogant fans.

So, in an effort to give this game and Tulane a little respect, I read their game notes for the LSU game.

Here's some shit I didn't know.

1. LSU All-American LB Greg Jackson (85-88) is Tulane's Safeties/Kickoff Team coach. 
2. Tulane is 52-5 against Louisiana teams that are NOT LSU.  Including....Camp Beauregard? WTF?
3. Half of Tulane's team members getting playing time are either first or second year players.  The Greenies have played 18 true freshmen this year.  By contrast, I believe LSU has played somewhere around 8.
4. Tulane ranks in the bottom half of nearly every statistical category in Div 1A, and in the bottom 20 in 11 of 17 categories.  They are dead last in the NCAA in net punting and tackles for loss.
5. Tulane wears a black oval sticker on their helmets with the number 16 on it in honor of kicker Andrew Villar, who died this past April of unknown causes.
6. Tulane has gotten 6 sacks this season so far.  Tulane has been sacked 21 times.
7. Tulane averages about 28,500 fans in the Superdome.  I wonder who subsidizes that losing proposition?
8. In 3 years, Bob Toledo has only won 8 games at Tulane.  The same number of wins in his first year at UC-Riverside (1974).  Ouch.

Yeah.  I'm bored, too. 

The goal on Saturday has to be to put 50 up on the board.  It's nothing personal against Tulane, but LSU needs to blow out some teams to get some voter attention.  Sorry - but Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops ALMOST have it right (they go too far).  Miles needs to keep the starters in until he hits fitty.

Anyway, now that LSU will no longer have to play Tulane every year, maybe I can spend a little time developing a fan's interest in the Green Wave.  We'll see.  They need to start being at least a little interesting, first.  If they dropped down into the FBS league, I'd be there in a heartbeat!

Eating a Little Crow - Jefferson was Better than my Quick Thoughts

I went back and reviewed every single Jordan Jefferson pass play from the Auburn game.  I looked for Jefferson's timing and also his accuracy, catch or not.  I was impressed with what I saw, in retrospect.  And I've changed my mind on Jefferson's game.

1st Quarter

1.  Complete to K. Williams in flat for nice gain.  Throw a little late and behind.
2.  Complete to Tolliver.  Throw behind, Tolliver bobbled it but held on.
3.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Very nice pass, Tolliver was interfered with/tripped.
4.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Throw very low and behind.
5.  Incomplete to LaFell.  Throw low and behind, but LaFell should have made the catch.
6.  Complete to Tolliver - nice pass.
7.  Complete to Tolliver.  Good throw, maybe a tad late.
8.  Complete to Tolliver.  Nice pass.
9.  Complete to Lafell.  Throw was high and behind on a bubble screen.
10. Incomplete to Scott.  Scrambling and basically threw it away.
11.  Couldn't find open man - scrambled for a touchdown.

2nd Quarter

12.  Complete to Lafell.  Nice pass.
13.  Complete to Lafell.
14.  Scrambled for first down after a very deep drop.
15.  Complete to Tolliver.  Very nice throw on a comeback route.
16.  Complete to Tolliver.  Another nice throw.
17.  Complete to Lafell.  Nice screen pass.
18.  Incomplete to nobody - threw it away after scramble.
19. Complete to Tolliver. 
20.  Scramble out of bounds no gain.
21.  Incomplete to Lafell.  Hit as he threw, way over Lafell's head.
22.  Complete to Scott on screen for no gain.
23.  Sacked after 3.5 seconds in pocket.
24.  Incomplete to Chris Mitchell.  Very short.  Hit just after he threw.
25.  Complete to Tolliver.  Nice pass.
26.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Thrown well behind.

3rd Quarter

27.  Incomplete to Lafell.  Good pass in tight situation.  Lafell dropped the ball.
28.  Complete to Holliday.  Nice pass in the only place Holliday could've caught it.
29.  Complete to Lafell for TD.  Very nice pass, taking advantage of Lafell's height advantage.
30.  Incomplete to Shepard.  He just dropped it.
31.  Complete to Randle.  Fantastic throw and catch.
32.  Negated by penalty, but good completion to Dickson.
33.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Not a good choice or pass - well covered.
34.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Slightly late throw, Tolliver dropped it.
35.  Complete to Tolliver.

4th Quarter

36.  Complete to Chris Mitchell.  Very low pass negating possible yards after catch.
37.  Complete to D. Peterson.  Good pass.
38.  Complete to Holliday.
39.  Sacked from a blitz.

Dear Jordan Jefferson,


     How are you?  I hope you didn't take too big of a hit on that last play.  Anyway, just wanted to tell you that I was completely wrong about your performance against Auburn.  I thought you were just sorta OK.  Turns out, you had a very nice game and executed the gameplan that was given to you very, very well.


     I'm particularly impressed with your ability to run yourself out of trouble most of the time.  And that fumble was clearly just "one of those things" and not reflective of your attention to preventing turnovers.


     One thing I noticed:  you threw to Tolliver 14 times, but only threw to Dickson once.  Wazzup with that?  I'm sure there's a good explanation.


     While I'd still like to see more throws 25 yards or so over the middle, I think the offensive line is giving you time.  So, eventually, we're going to see the long stuff.  With that in mind, I'm going to have a little crow for dinner tonight and call it good.


     Have a great week.  And GEAUX TIGERS!


Respectfully,


Jeff

QUICK THOUGHTS: LSU DOMINATES AUBURN

LSU's defense (and Auburn's penalties) gave plenty of space for a still-inconsistent LSU offense to work its way to a much improved four quarters of football.

But I'm still staying realistic about expectations for this season.  I saw plenty to be happy about in this game.  But I also saw plenty to keep in perspective.

THINGS I'M HAPPY ABOUT

• The Defense.  Just look at the stats if you didn't watch the game closely.  LSU's defense will keep them in any game.  And we all know that defenses win championships.  Which is why Florida and Bama are still at the top of the heap.
• LSU's cornerbacks are really good and really deep.  Chris Hawkins' interception was awesome.
• Turnover ratio.  Although the Tigers didn't take advantage of every turnover in terms of putting 7 on the board, a 3:1 turnover ratio is smokin' good.
• Russell Shepard finally broke one.  I gotta admit - I was getting tired of seeing him in predictable situations, getting hit hard by Eltoro Freeman, who was obviously spying him.  But he finally got the seam he needed and it was over.  If he gets a chance to complete a few passes for big yards out of the Wildcat (WildTiger, whatever), then we're going to see more of him racing into the end zone.
• Reuben Randle's great grab.
• Jarrett Lee getting some snaps, making a great throw to Lafell (after a scary throw to Tolliver...)
• Jordan Jefferson remains rock solid in terms of his care of the football (except for the fumble), his ability to not make big mistakes (except for the fumble), and his knack for getting good, important yards with his legs (except when he fumbles).  Seriously - Jefferson's fumble aside, he's a solid QB. 
• The announcers said it.  I've been hoping it's true.  LSU is still improving.  If that continues, that's a very good sign for this postseason and next year, obviously.

THINGS I'M KEEPING IN PERSPECTIVE

• Auburn is not good.  I thought they were a lot better than they are.  And mostly, they're not good because their defense is not what it has been in the past.  So when their offense sputtered, it cost them big time.
• Jordan Jefferson is still not throwing the ball all that well.  He made some good throws (TD to Tolliver).  He also made a lot of poor throws, some of which were dropped, some of which were not.   He's also still taking way to0 long to throw downfield and his timing is not great.  Why am I picking on this?  Because Auburn is not good.  Jefferson looked OK against a weak defense and a team that basically gave up in the second half.  Bama has a much better defense than Auburn.  So does Ole Miss.  Right now, Jefferson is solid, but not good enough.  I still think his job is not secure heading into the off-season if he doesn't begin to really stretch the field on a regular basis.
• No.  Pass.  Rush.  Seriously.  Two sacks and I was ECSTATIC!  That's sad.  Chris Todd had tons of time to throw.  It's a good thing LSU's secondary is so good and Chris Todd isn't.

BOTTOM LINE:  I'm stoked that the Tigers beat Auburn and still control their own destiny.  But I'm maintaining that LSU will be a 2-loss team at best, and more likely a 3-loss team when all is said and done.  Because a QB that doesn't scare defensive coordinators and a defense that can't pressure the opposing QB is a recipe for exploitation by top caliber teams.  Florida has already done it.  Alabama will do it next. 

I hope Jordan Jefferson and the LSU defensive front improve greatly against Tulane and just shuts me up against Bama, Ole Miss and Arkansas (Mallett is a good QB).

Tough to be pessimistic about a 31-10 dominating effort of Auburn.  But that's where I'm at.

SNAP JUDGEMENTS: Florida 13, LSU 3

What a painful football game to watch.  Florida dominated LSU and the game wasn't anywhere near as close as the score.  Nothing has changed for the Tigers.  So this one is ridiculously easy to analyze.

DEFENSE

• LSU's defense bends but doesn't break.  The Tigers held the Gators to 327 total yards and 13 points. But the Gators only punted once.  And they dominated the time of possession by 13 minutes.  Thats, like, a lot.
• LSU's weakness on defense continues to be the defensive line.  No sacks. 

OFFENSE

• I'm going to say it.  Jordan Jefferson is not a good QB at this point.  He has a glaring weakness and teams will continue to exploit it - he has horrible downfield vision and timing.  LSU will not beat Alabama and may not beat Auburn, Ole Miss and Arkansas unless Jefferson steps up his game.  Half of his sacks were his fault - he just does not see the receivers getting open and holds the ball too long.
• The Tiger offensive line continues to be average.  But I'm done complaining about them because, other than the penalties early in the game, they played well considering Florida's defensive line and Jefferson's inability to get rid of the football.
• If Jefferson can't throw, defenses will continue to stack the box and Charles Scott will continue to have a frustrating senior season.
• Too many dropped passes.  And Jefferson continues to throw behind and too high.  And WTF with not finding Dickson more often?

SPECIAL TEAMS

• Still solid. Good kick coverage and kickoffs, and besides Helton's ridiculous shank punt, the punting was good as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS

1. Florida may not be good enough to beat Alabama.  I think Bama has a better offense and as good a defense.
2. LSU better find a QB between now and next season if there is any hope of competing for championships next year.  Jordan Jefferson is not that guy right now.  He's still playing high school football.  That ain't gonna cut it.  If he doesn't improve, he may find himself with stiff competition for the starting job next year.  Hell, at this point, he may need some serious competition THIS year.  NOT throwing interceptions and pick-sixes is NOT the measure of a good QB.
3. LSU's all-star secondary is not getting any help from LSU's hapless pass rush.  Something needs to happen there. 

Will Florida Exploit LSU's Lack of Sack?

The Tiger defense hasn't had a sack since Vandy.  Lots of folks, including me, have talked about it.  And Rahim Alem is understandably frustrated. 

Why is this a problem?  Well, obviously sacks stall offensive drives and cause all but the most experienced and steely-eyed QBs to flinch and make more mistakes.  Without a credible pass rush, good QBs (like Florida's) will be able to pick apart almost any secondary. 

Can LSU develop a pass rush?  Sure.  Florida has given up 7 sacks over 4 games, with a high of 3 against the Volunteers.  LSU has some talent on the defensive line, but we haven't seen much sack production yet.

But the question on my mind is not, "Will LSU get some sacks against Florida?"

My question is, "Will Florida exploit LSU's desire to get to Tebow/Brantley?"

I think they will.  I'm sure LSU's coaches have thought about this well before I did.  But the fact is:  LSU's defensive line will be hungry for Gator QB.  And I think we may see some corner blitzes to try to get to Brantley, who may not have the experience to pick these up.  But Florida, if they're  paying attention, should have a gameplan in place to exploit this when it starts happening. 

Sometimes weakness can be exploited both at the depth of the weakness and during the attempt to fix the problem. 

I'll be watching for it. 

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Quarterback Questions

First of all, I'm not whining about LSU's QB situation at all.  Jefferson, so far, has earned his spot, is leading LSU to victory, and takes care of the football generally.  But, he's also not exactly burning up the joint.  So it's interesting to me to compare the two heading into the Florida game.  Because after Florida last year, Lee went on a pick-six streak that had Tiger fans booing the young QB.

So - I'm gonna take a look at Lee and Jefferson, and throw in a little post-script about Russell Shepard.

COMPARING 2008 JARRETT LEE & 2009 JORDAN JEFFERSON

Heading into last year's matchup with Florida, redshirt freshman QB Jarrett Lee was under a lot of scrutiny.  Tiger fans were generally very unhappy, still high on BCS championship champagne from 2007.  But, statistically, Lee was having a reasonable freshman season at that point.  After 4 games, he had completed approximately 58% of his passes for 161 yards/game, 6 TDs and 3 interceptions.  Unfortunately, 1 of those picks was returned for a TD (Auburn).  Little did any of us know, there were going to be 6 more pick-sixes for Lee.

After the first five games this season, sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson heads into his matchup against Tim Tebow (maybe?) having completed 63% of his passes for 184 yards/game, 7 TDs and 2 picks. 

On the surface, those stats aren't all that different from one another.  Jefferson's numbers are slightly better than Lee's in each category. But not significantly better. 

But two distinctions leap out when comparing Jefferson and Lee. 

The first, and to me the most glaring, is expectations. 

1. Lee was leading a team that was following the 2007 national championship run.  Jefferson is following a 5 loss "disaster" season.  
2. Lee was following a 5th year senior QB.  Jefferson is following Lee's 7 pick-sixes.

The second distinction is sacks.  This time last year, Lee had been sacked one time.  Jefferson, has been sacked 13 times.  Now, the offensive line is different this year without Helms and Big Herman.  But 12 sacks different?  OK - throw out the fifth game and the SIX sacks Georgia amassed.  That still leaves 7 sacks in four games for Jefferson.  And one last year for Lee.  And Jefferson is supposed to be a mobile QB (which he decidedly is).  Lee is supposed to be a classic pocket passer.

So, why the huge increase in sacks?  Simple.  Lee is a better passing QB.  Period.  Dot.

It's OK, Rantards of the world.  Breathe.  Read it again.  Ponder it.  Because it's true. 

Go back and watch game film.  Lee is a much more polished passer.  Better throwing motion.  More accurate.  Hits far more receivers in stride.  Throws far fewer passes behind receivers.  And gets rid of the football quicker.  Lee is a better passer than Jordan Jefferson.  Jefferson's numbers are slightly better for a couple of reasons.  First, Jefferson throws A TON of short passes.  Second, Jefferson hasn't had the benefit of a healthy running attack so he's HAD to throw more.  And Lee shared time with Hatch for the first few games.  After 4 games, Lee had thrown 77 passes to Jefferson's 101.

Lee is also braver than Jefferson.  He took more chances last year.  He made more great throws.  He also overplayed his hand a lot and threw a BUNCH of interceptions, 7 of them returned for touchdowns.

So.  What am I saying?  I'm saying Jordan Jefferson is having a pretty good sophomore year as a QB.  I'm saying at this time last year, Jarrett Lee was having a pretty good freshman year as a QB.  Until Florida.

Would Lee be able to lead this LSU team to the same 5-0 record?  Obviously, there's absolutely no way to tell.  But there's at least a small chance that Lee would have better numbers this year, be more accurate, and have hit Lafell and Toliver in stride more consistently.  Or not. We'll probably never know.  But if it becomes necessary to know, I hope Lee is ready to grab the reins.  Because as crazy as this season seems, it will get crazier if Jefferson gets hurt and Lee returns to 2008 form.  Because this next fella isn't ready to take the whole shebang.

RUSSELL SHEPARD

This kid is impressive.  He hasn't really been a big factor in any games, but that's not his fault.  First of all, he's only played a few downs per game.  Secondly, the defense knows he's going to carry the ball every time he's in the game.  It's not exactly deceptive.  And yet he still gets about 7 yards per carry.  That's pretty impressive.  Imagine how effective he could be if defenses were forced to honor the pass when he's in the game.

So why not have him throw the ball?  Seems like Gary Crowton and Les Miles are missing the boat on Shepard's talent.  Nah. 

When the game is in doubt, Shep doesn't see the field.  I think it's pretty clear that Miles and Crowton are giving Shep his touches to get him seasoned, to let  him get bloodied a bit.  But it's not Shep's time yet.  The Tigers have boup coup beaucoup weapons in the arsenal. 

Still - the first time Shep throws the ball, some defense is going to be very surprised and it could be a very big play.

Perhaps that team will be Florida?  Hmmm...

Bullet Points - Great Win for LSU

GOOD STUFF

• Offensive line play.  Yes, LSU was sacked 6 times.   But that sits on Jefferson, not the line.  Jefferson had time to throw but held onto the ball too long too many times.  The offensive line also generated some push against the defensive line.  And you gotta give props to a unit that was obviously suffering some illness.
• The Defense.  LSU's defense will continue to bend but not break.  And although Georgia had a couple of big plays, the defense came through allowing only 13 points to an offense with enough firepower to pile up 52 and 41 points on Arkansas and South Carolina.
• Patrick Peterson.  Yes, A.J. Green had a good day.  But A.J. Green is a fantastic receiver and Peterson was great keeping him at bay.  Most of Green's big plays came when Peterson was on the other side.
• Special teams.  The Tiger kicking game was very good.  The punting game pinned Georgia against their goal line twice.  And kickoff coverage continues to be aggressive and good.
• The team's character - Miles said it himself.  This team won't quit.  I remember saying that about the 2007 team.  I'm not expecting the same result.  And I don't see the same obvious team leaders.  But there's a no-quit feel to this team. 

WTFO?

• Red Zone?  The score should've been 28-0 at half time.  LSU's Red Zone disease in the first half was kind of unbelievable. 
• Third Downs.  The Tigers were only 5 of 14 on 3rd downs, but allowed Georgia to convert 7 of 17.  Wouldn't it be nice if those stats were reversed...
• Jordan Jefferson's timing.  The LSU quarterback is a great athlete, and he has earned praise from coaches and media for being unflappable.  But his timing is still way off.  Lots of passes behind and over receivers.  Jefferson has been hitting receivers after they're obviously open, and not as they're getting open.  Honestly, he's fortunate to not have had more passes picked.  And he has been sacked a lot this year, mostly because he holds onto the ball too long.  As Jefferson fixes his timing, he will become a very good SEC QB.  But he needs to fix it.
• Excessive celebration penalties?  Stupid.  Absolutely ridiculous.  None of those were excessive.  I think LSU scores anyway, but that last penalty against Georgia was just stupid. 
• Will LSU develop a pass rush and sack QBs?  Stay tuned.  (If Cox were a better QB, UGA would've easily won this game.  No secondary can cover everyone all the time.)

SUNDAY SOAPBOX tomorrow, and hopefully a podcast on the way.

Geaux Tigers!

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: An Intervention

We need to talk. 

You have an expectation problem and you need help. 

Ever since LSU blew out Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl last year, you've been secretly expecting a dominating season this year.  Don't deny it - you thought we'd crush teams with our offense and maybe only lose to Florida. 

Oh, that's not what you've been SAYING to people.  You've been telling your friends that LSU will probably lose three games this year.  But secretly, you've been expecting MUCH more. 

You're destroying your season, dude.  There's a perfectly good football seaon happening right under your nose, a winning football season, a bowl season - and you're destroying it - all because you have an expectation problem.  You need to stop.

You need to face some facts and rehabilitate your expectations.

FACT:  Jordan Jefferson is a true sophomore QB with only, what, 6 starts?  He's not a world-beater yet.  The QBs that led the 2003 and 2007 teams were fifth year seniors.  HUGE difference.  Jefferson is doing fine.  He's working on his timing.  But he's not there yet.  When he gets there, though, he'll be special.

FACT:  LSU's offensive line is still a work in progress.  That's regettable, since we're approaching mid-season, but it's a fact.  And we're seriously missing Brett Helms and Herman Johnson!  But this offensive line is NOT last year's offensive line.  The running game is NOT Charles Scott's fault.  It's not the coaches' fault.  Everyone is waiting for the offensive line to wake up.

FACT:  Without a quality offensive line that can open holes, and without a seasoned QB that can pick apart a secondary, LSU isn't going to dominate anyone consistently.  The offense is going to sputter at times this year. 

FACT:  LSU's defense this year is not going to dominate anyone.  Period.  The defense is going to bend.  Occassionally it will break.  But sometimes, they'll also make big plays because of the amazing athletes LSU has.  So stop expecting a game full of 3 and outs.  Aint gonna happen.  Stop expecting a top 10 ranking in defensive statistics.  Not very likely. 

FINAL FACT:  This LSU football team is going to play up or down to it's competition.  All year.  The team isn't looking for it's peronality anymore.  The team has found it's personality - and that's it.  Cardiac Cats, 2009 version. 

Look.  You and I have a lot in common.  And I enjoy hanging out with you.  But you are ruining your football season and running off your friends with all your unrealistic expectations.  No one wants to be around an angry, unhappy, manic-depressive football fan.

If you need treatment, spend time pondering the LSU football teams under Mike Archer and Curley Hallman.  That's what LSU football used to be like. 

You need to do something, dude.  And quickly.  Because LSU is about to enter the meat of the SEC schedule.  And with your expectations, I'm worried about you.  You may not have any sanity or friends left after the Florida game.

I'm only pointing all this out because I care.

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Driveby Edition

On the road. My random and haphazard thoughts on last night's 31-3 win over the Ragin Cajuns.

Good stuff

• A win is a win.  And this one was never in doubt, not even close.
• Defense looked very good in spots and didn't give up a big play. 
• Chad Jones - 2 interceptions, 1 pass breakup, 4 tackles - very good night.
• That win over UW looks pretty sweet considering they beat the Trojans!
• Lafell and Toliver looked good.  Randle got his first catch.
• Helton was consistent and had a 44 yard average per punt.
• Awesome goal line stand!
• The school formerly known as USL still hasn't scored a TD on LSU in like 85 years. 

Annoying, Fans are Never Happy Stuff

• Jordan Jefferson still not opening the field with a credible long ball = stack the box.
• Offensive line is inconsistent to be generous.  Big Herm's/Brett Helms absences are being felt in a huge way.
• No killer instinct so far in this team.
• Shepard will not be effective if he runs every single time he gets the ball.
• Richard Dickson should be getting 3 or 4 more passes per game over the middle to make the LBs honor the pass.
• There was no flow to this game, and the offense looked downright confused at times. 

It's still early, but it's getting less early.  Mississippi State is the last tune up game of the season.  Georgia's offense is rolling.  Florida is Florida.  I expect LSU will be 5-1 coming out of the Florida game, but to avoid being 4-2, the offense is going to have to get moving.  360 total yards against this Ragin Cajun team does not give me confidence that LSU will be able to run with the SEC big dogs, even if the defense is able to rein in UGA and Tebow a bit.

OVERALL:  Glad of the easy win, but nervous about the next three games.