Eating a Little Crow - Jefferson was Better than my Quick Thoughts

I went back and reviewed every single Jordan Jefferson pass play from the Auburn game.  I looked for Jefferson's timing and also his accuracy, catch or not.  I was impressed with what I saw, in retrospect.  And I've changed my mind on Jefferson's game.

1st Quarter

1.  Complete to K. Williams in flat for nice gain.  Throw a little late and behind.
2.  Complete to Tolliver.  Throw behind, Tolliver bobbled it but held on.
3.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Very nice pass, Tolliver was interfered with/tripped.
4.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Throw very low and behind.
5.  Incomplete to LaFell.  Throw low and behind, but LaFell should have made the catch.
6.  Complete to Tolliver - nice pass.
7.  Complete to Tolliver.  Good throw, maybe a tad late.
8.  Complete to Tolliver.  Nice pass.
9.  Complete to Lafell.  Throw was high and behind on a bubble screen.
10. Incomplete to Scott.  Scrambling and basically threw it away.
11.  Couldn't find open man - scrambled for a touchdown.

2nd Quarter

12.  Complete to Lafell.  Nice pass.
13.  Complete to Lafell.
14.  Scrambled for first down after a very deep drop.
15.  Complete to Tolliver.  Very nice throw on a comeback route.
16.  Complete to Tolliver.  Another nice throw.
17.  Complete to Lafell.  Nice screen pass.
18.  Incomplete to nobody - threw it away after scramble.
19. Complete to Tolliver. 
20.  Scramble out of bounds no gain.
21.  Incomplete to Lafell.  Hit as he threw, way over Lafell's head.
22.  Complete to Scott on screen for no gain.
23.  Sacked after 3.5 seconds in pocket.
24.  Incomplete to Chris Mitchell.  Very short.  Hit just after he threw.
25.  Complete to Tolliver.  Nice pass.
26.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Thrown well behind.

3rd Quarter

27.  Incomplete to Lafell.  Good pass in tight situation.  Lafell dropped the ball.
28.  Complete to Holliday.  Nice pass in the only place Holliday could've caught it.
29.  Complete to Lafell for TD.  Very nice pass, taking advantage of Lafell's height advantage.
30.  Incomplete to Shepard.  He just dropped it.
31.  Complete to Randle.  Fantastic throw and catch.
32.  Negated by penalty, but good completion to Dickson.
33.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Not a good choice or pass - well covered.
34.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Slightly late throw, Tolliver dropped it.
35.  Complete to Tolliver.

4th Quarter

36.  Complete to Chris Mitchell.  Very low pass negating possible yards after catch.
37.  Complete to D. Peterson.  Good pass.
38.  Complete to Holliday.
39.  Sacked from a blitz.

Dear Jordan Jefferson,


     How are you?  I hope you didn't take too big of a hit on that last play.  Anyway, just wanted to tell you that I was completely wrong about your performance against Auburn.  I thought you were just sorta OK.  Turns out, you had a very nice game and executed the gameplan that was given to you very, very well.


     I'm particularly impressed with your ability to run yourself out of trouble most of the time.  And that fumble was clearly just "one of those things" and not reflective of your attention to preventing turnovers.


     One thing I noticed:  you threw to Tolliver 14 times, but only threw to Dickson once.  Wazzup with that?  I'm sure there's a good explanation.


     While I'd still like to see more throws 25 yards or so over the middle, I think the offensive line is giving you time.  So, eventually, we're going to see the long stuff.  With that in mind, I'm going to have a little crow for dinner tonight and call it good.


     Have a great week.  And GEAUX TIGERS!


Respectfully,


Jeff

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Quarterback Questions

First of all, I'm not whining about LSU's QB situation at all.  Jefferson, so far, has earned his spot, is leading LSU to victory, and takes care of the football generally.  But, he's also not exactly burning up the joint.  So it's interesting to me to compare the two heading into the Florida game.  Because after Florida last year, Lee went on a pick-six streak that had Tiger fans booing the young QB.

So - I'm gonna take a look at Lee and Jefferson, and throw in a little post-script about Russell Shepard.

COMPARING 2008 JARRETT LEE & 2009 JORDAN JEFFERSON

Heading into last year's matchup with Florida, redshirt freshman QB Jarrett Lee was under a lot of scrutiny.  Tiger fans were generally very unhappy, still high on BCS championship champagne from 2007.  But, statistically, Lee was having a reasonable freshman season at that point.  After 4 games, he had completed approximately 58% of his passes for 161 yards/game, 6 TDs and 3 interceptions.  Unfortunately, 1 of those picks was returned for a TD (Auburn).  Little did any of us know, there were going to be 6 more pick-sixes for Lee.

After the first five games this season, sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson heads into his matchup against Tim Tebow (maybe?) having completed 63% of his passes for 184 yards/game, 7 TDs and 2 picks. 

On the surface, those stats aren't all that different from one another.  Jefferson's numbers are slightly better than Lee's in each category. But not significantly better. 

But two distinctions leap out when comparing Jefferson and Lee. 

The first, and to me the most glaring, is expectations. 

1. Lee was leading a team that was following the 2007 national championship run.  Jefferson is following a 5 loss "disaster" season.  
2. Lee was following a 5th year senior QB.  Jefferson is following Lee's 7 pick-sixes.

The second distinction is sacks.  This time last year, Lee had been sacked one time.  Jefferson, has been sacked 13 times.  Now, the offensive line is different this year without Helms and Big Herman.  But 12 sacks different?  OK - throw out the fifth game and the SIX sacks Georgia amassed.  That still leaves 7 sacks in four games for Jefferson.  And one last year for Lee.  And Jefferson is supposed to be a mobile QB (which he decidedly is).  Lee is supposed to be a classic pocket passer.

So, why the huge increase in sacks?  Simple.  Lee is a better passing QB.  Period.  Dot.

It's OK, Rantards of the world.  Breathe.  Read it again.  Ponder it.  Because it's true. 

Go back and watch game film.  Lee is a much more polished passer.  Better throwing motion.  More accurate.  Hits far more receivers in stride.  Throws far fewer passes behind receivers.  And gets rid of the football quicker.  Lee is a better passer than Jordan Jefferson.  Jefferson's numbers are slightly better for a couple of reasons.  First, Jefferson throws A TON of short passes.  Second, Jefferson hasn't had the benefit of a healthy running attack so he's HAD to throw more.  And Lee shared time with Hatch for the first few games.  After 4 games, Lee had thrown 77 passes to Jefferson's 101.

Lee is also braver than Jefferson.  He took more chances last year.  He made more great throws.  He also overplayed his hand a lot and threw a BUNCH of interceptions, 7 of them returned for touchdowns.

So.  What am I saying?  I'm saying Jordan Jefferson is having a pretty good sophomore year as a QB.  I'm saying at this time last year, Jarrett Lee was having a pretty good freshman year as a QB.  Until Florida.

Would Lee be able to lead this LSU team to the same 5-0 record?  Obviously, there's absolutely no way to tell.  But there's at least a small chance that Lee would have better numbers this year, be more accurate, and have hit Lafell and Toliver in stride more consistently.  Or not. We'll probably never know.  But if it becomes necessary to know, I hope Lee is ready to grab the reins.  Because as crazy as this season seems, it will get crazier if Jefferson gets hurt and Lee returns to 2008 form.  Because this next fella isn't ready to take the whole shebang.

RUSSELL SHEPARD

This kid is impressive.  He hasn't really been a big factor in any games, but that's not his fault.  First of all, he's only played a few downs per game.  Secondly, the defense knows he's going to carry the ball every time he's in the game.  It's not exactly deceptive.  And yet he still gets about 7 yards per carry.  That's pretty impressive.  Imagine how effective he could be if defenses were forced to honor the pass when he's in the game.

So why not have him throw the ball?  Seems like Gary Crowton and Les Miles are missing the boat on Shepard's talent.  Nah. 

When the game is in doubt, Shep doesn't see the field.  I think it's pretty clear that Miles and Crowton are giving Shep his touches to get him seasoned, to let  him get bloodied a bit.  But it's not Shep's time yet.  The Tigers have boup coup beaucoup weapons in the arsenal. 

Still - the first time Shep throws the ball, some defense is going to be very surprised and it could be a very big play.

Perhaps that team will be Florida?  Hmmm...

Jordan Jefferson Video

We're gonna be talking a bunch about quarterbacks over the off-season. For now, here's some video of JJ's better plays against Ga Tech in the Peach Bowl. Enjoy. My favorite is not the shuffle pass - which I think was ill advised. I like the bomb to LaFell that was called back - very pretty strike.

SOAPBOX: Sober Analysis

LSU 26, Auburn 21

Since I'm "late to need" on this edition of the Soapbox, I'm going to skip all the obvious stuff. I'm not going to recap the scary first half, the fateful concussion, the details of the amazing rebirth of J. Lee, the Heisman-like performance of Charles Scott, or the ballsy play calling of Miles and Crowton.

Instead, I'm going to focus on one thing. What, if anything, do we know now about the LSU quarterback situation. And who should "start" against Mississippi State this weekend.

All of the positive attention is focused on Jarrett Lee right now. And he deserves it. He had a fantastic second half after stinking up Jordan-Hare in the first.

Any LSU fan paying attention was cringing during halftime at the thought that Miles and Crowton might actually decide to play Lee again after he threw that really bad pick-six. That was a horrid pass. Face it - we were all calling for his head and hoping like hell Jordan Jefferson was maturing fast!

But Lee was a completely different QB in the second half. His throws had zip and purpose and his confidence was sky high. What's more, Lee looked like he'd been there before. Many times before, in fact. He looked poised and completely in control. And he threw some very nice passes.



So Lee is the man now, correct? Well, not so fast.

Jarrett Lee had a great second half. That does not erase his first half. Nor does it erase the fact that he's still a redshirt freshman.

Lee's second half also doesn't erase the fact that Andrew Hatch, while not lighting up the night with his passing, was playing a pretty good football game on his own, particularly with his legs. Hatch ended half a game with 40 net yards rushing and some of those yards involved some pretty nifty moves and very good downfield vision. Take away two sacks, and I think his total is closer to 51 yards.

So, if Hatch is healthy on Saturday, who gets the start? And does it matter?

I'll answer the second question first. Yes. It does matter. It's not everything. If both quarterbacks are healthy, they likely both get equal PT. But the starter is the front runner. He's the guy the coaches have the most confidence in. And that WILL matter to both of these guys. Maybe most to Jarrett Lee. If Hatch is full speed and Lee gets the start, the coaches are telling Lee that he's stepped into the next level. It just may be the confidence-building event that turns this redshirt freshman into an above average SEC quarterback by season's end.



Of course, it also tells Andrew Hatch that he's had his chance, and as luck would have it, his injury gave Lee some daylight and the kid took advantage. Hatch has to know that Lee's arm is stronger and his upside is higher. So it won't come as a surprise to him, but he'll still be disappointed at losing his chance to win the job outright.

So, yes. I think it does matter. It's not everything, but it's certainly important.

Who starts? I think it's Lee. Two reasons.

First, LSU needs a deep passing threat from it's QB more than it needs good running skills. Lee runs well enough to evade the sack. And the LSU RB cadre is good enough (understatement) to carry the rushing game.

Secondly, as I hinted before, I think Lee has earned the right at a chance to take the job for good. Hatch has had three starts. He's looked adequate, if wanting on throws past 15 yards. Now Lee gets his shot.

But this opens up another idea. If Hatch is hurt, what about Jordan Jefferson? Does he get significant PT?



I think he does if LSU puts the game away in the third or fourth quarter by 3 touchdowns or more. If not, then I don't think Miles and company will be able to risk the game in the hands of a kid who more than likely does not have the full offense at his disposal.

If Mississippi State keeps the game within reach, say less than 17 points, I don't see Jefferson sniffing the field until the final minutes, if at all.

So, the most important thing that can happen, assuming Hatch is injured, is that LSU crushes Mississippi State on Saturday night. Because, first of all, it would be fun to watch. And, second of all, if Hatch is injured, Jefferson needs some quality PT against an SEC defense.

Back to Lee. What do I expect? I expect some turbulence. I hope for the best, but I expect he's going to throw some more interceptions, and mishandle a few game situations, and generally make some folks wonder why they were so high on him.

Then, he's going to play lights out, and throw 40 yard laser beams to LaFell and Byrd and Toliver in full stride. All in the same game. Because that's what young QBs generally do. They play inconsistently.

It's up to the coaching staff to keep his head on straight and call the plays that help him succeed the most.

I'm optimistic about Lee. I have a feeling he might take advantage of this next game to put some serious distance between himself and Hatch.

But I'm not expecting it. Instead, I'm expecting some more turbulence.

And I'm expecting this fella to smooth all that out like a freight train on a copper penny...