National Signing Day - How We Doin'?

In a quasi-word - we doin' aight.

Let's start this discussion out with some facts.

Fact #1: LSU is coming off two modest seasons. Two good bowl games, but the Tigers were not in contention for SEC or BCS championships in either season. Moreover, the offense has looked bad and there are now questions about the quality of LSU's offensive coordinator and the ability of the quarterbacks in the system to be championship-quality field generals.

Fact #2: This class of LA seniors did not yield quite as many "blue-chip" quality athletes as previous years. When that happens, the fence that LSU has built around Louisiana isn't quite so easy to defend. Not only are there fewer great athletes for LSU to go after in LA, but the neighboring states have fewer "second tier" guys to pick-off. So there's a LOT more competition for the "first tier" guys. And, since LSU is forced to spend more time out-of-state, the in-state prospects spend more time hearing from other schools.

Fact #3: Every 2010 prospect is just a kid. None of them have graduated from high school yet (except for the JC or "academy" kids). So, when a kid from southern California decides to decommit from LSU to attend UCLA, or a kid from north Texas decommits to attend Texas, we shouldn't feel like LSU is second best. Some of this is simply kids being kids. Or when Lache Seastrunk decides that Oregon is the place for him instead of LSU, where RB recruiting has been good and will be even better next year, we have to take a deep breath.

OK. Now, let's look at the Class of 2010 as it stands right now. I'm not going to list all the recruits - if you need a list, go here or here. The numbers next to the names are the (Rivals/Scout) recruiting services ratings. I've listed the prospects in the order that I consider them to be high impact commitments for the program.

BEST OF THE COMMITMENTS

RB Spencer Ware (5/4) Cincinnatti, OH. Ware played QB in high school, but he's listed as a RB and he will be a great prospect for the Tigers. At 5'11" and 215 pounds, Ware is physically ready to play right now. He can make defenders miss, he run them over, and he can pull away from all but the speediest cornerbacks. Ware is the commitment I am most excited about in this class.

S Eric Reid (4/4), Dutchtown HS, LA. Reid has been committed to LSU for so long that almost nobody is talking about him anymore. So it's easy to forget that he's one of the very best DBs in the country and will make a quick impact on the field for LSU, if not in the secondary then more than likely on special teams. Reid is big (6'1", 205), aggressive and fast. If he picks up the defensive schemes fast enough, he may even find himself in nickel and dime back situations. And, who knows - with Chavis' penchant for smallish LBs with speed, Reid very well may find himself in that rotation ala Harry Coleman.

DE Jordan Allen (4/4), West Monroe HS, LA. Allen is a Parade HS All-American and very exciting defensive prospect. Which makes one wonder why there is talk already of whether he will become an offensive lineman...I don't see it. Allen has the meanness, speed, aggressiveness and size to be yet another fantastic LSU defensive lineman. Like Reid, Allen has been committed since the summer, so there's been nothing to talk about with him. And, like Reid, Allen was a standout in the high school all-star games.

FB Brandon Worle (3/3), LaGrange, GA. LSU needs a FB. Quinn Johnson's absence last season was deafening, and no mix of the converted offensive linemen, tight end, or true freshman seemed to work. Brandon Worle may be LSU's future at this position. This kid is a beast. At 6' and 243, Worle runs a 4.65 40 yard dash. I highly encourage you to watch his video on the recruiting sites or, if there is any, on YouTube. I am very excited about this recruit. He can catch, he is a bruising RB, and he is a natural blocker. He hits the hole fast and hard, and he seems to have a nose for the creases. Which means he likely has good vision. Even though he's only a 3 star, I think Worle will be special. And I don't think it's going to take very long.

ATH Tharold Simon (4/4), Eunice HS, LA. Simon is listed as an athlete by one service and a safety by another. I've even heard some folks talk about making Simon into a corner back. A 6'4" cornerback. Yowza. What that speaks to is Simon's freakish athletic ability. At 6'4" and 180lbs, Simon runs a 4.5 40 yard dash. His video tells the story - this kid is wide open in terms of where he might end up. His height and speed make him a cookie-cutter NFL-sized WR. But it's not yet known how well Simon can run routes, how sticky his hands are, and how committed he might be to blocking. But time will tell. Like Morris Claiborne in last year's class, I think Simon (if he has the grades and keeps out of trouble) could be the steal of this class.

OVERALL

The message boards have been full of "NegaTigers" all season long. Now that LSU has dropped the bowl game to Penn State, and Les Miles has not fired Gary Crowton, who it appears is no longer a Wizard but definitely a Scape Goat, some folks seem to be in a near panic about where the program is headed. And those folks look at LSU's inabilty to get Trovon Reed, Lache Seastrunk, Justin Hunter, Mike Davis and Cassius Marsh signed and enrolled as an omen of impending doom.

Bullshit.

Over the last decade, LSU has recruited as well as any program in the country. Of all 119 BCS schools, LSU (according to Scout) is #6 in recruiting since 2002. During that time, LSU has won 2 national championships and is one of the Top 10 programs in the country in terms of post-season recognition (polls, final ranking, championships). And LSU's class this season - in a down year for LA recruiting - will end up in the Top 10 again, most likely around #8 or so.

Based on the talent available in the state, and the modest success of the last two seasons, Coach Les Miles and the Tigers' staff have delivered a fantastic recruiting class. Yet again.

Let the fear mongers gnash their teeth and claw at their walls. The roster remains stocked. 2010 and beyond look bright for LSU.

And if you doubt that at all, take a quick peek at the awesome talent already committed to LSU (from inside LA) for 2011.

LSU Fans: Time to Grow Up

I've been wanting to write this post for awhile. But I needed some time and perspective to sink in before I dove in. Because it's an emotional issue for many folks and I didn't want to overstate my case.

Simply put, my case is this.

Many LSU fans need to grow up.

SOAPBOX: Get Well Soon, Jordan Jefferson.

Judging from the box score only, you'd be very surprised to find out that LSU actually beat Louisiana Tech last night. It's an ugly looking set of statistics for the Tigers. But the ugliest line in my opinion is the time of possession stat. Because it tells the story of why the Bulldogs were able to make a game of it.

LA Tech had the football for 36:20. LSU for 23:40. 12.5 minutes difference. LA Tech ran 84 offensive plays to LSU's 52.

Viewed from that perspective, it's amazing the LSU defense was able to keep LA Tech out of the endzone as much as they did.

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Quarterback Questions

First of all, I'm not whining about LSU's QB situation at all.  Jefferson, so far, has earned his spot, is leading LSU to victory, and takes care of the football generally.  But, he's also not exactly burning up the joint.  So it's interesting to me to compare the two heading into the Florida game.  Because after Florida last year, Lee went on a pick-six streak that had Tiger fans booing the young QB.

So - I'm gonna take a look at Lee and Jefferson, and throw in a little post-script about Russell Shepard.

COMPARING 2008 JARRETT LEE & 2009 JORDAN JEFFERSON

Heading into last year's matchup with Florida, redshirt freshman QB Jarrett Lee was under a lot of scrutiny.  Tiger fans were generally very unhappy, still high on BCS championship champagne from 2007.  But, statistically, Lee was having a reasonable freshman season at that point.  After 4 games, he had completed approximately 58% of his passes for 161 yards/game, 6 TDs and 3 interceptions.  Unfortunately, 1 of those picks was returned for a TD (Auburn).  Little did any of us know, there were going to be 6 more pick-sixes for Lee.

After the first five games this season, sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson heads into his matchup against Tim Tebow (maybe?) having completed 63% of his passes for 184 yards/game, 7 TDs and 2 picks. 

On the surface, those stats aren't all that different from one another.  Jefferson's numbers are slightly better than Lee's in each category. But not significantly better. 

But two distinctions leap out when comparing Jefferson and Lee. 

The first, and to me the most glaring, is expectations. 

1. Lee was leading a team that was following the 2007 national championship run.  Jefferson is following a 5 loss "disaster" season.  
2. Lee was following a 5th year senior QB.  Jefferson is following Lee's 7 pick-sixes.

The second distinction is sacks.  This time last year, Lee had been sacked one time.  Jefferson, has been sacked 13 times.  Now, the offensive line is different this year without Helms and Big Herman.  But 12 sacks different?  OK - throw out the fifth game and the SIX sacks Georgia amassed.  That still leaves 7 sacks in four games for Jefferson.  And one last year for Lee.  And Jefferson is supposed to be a mobile QB (which he decidedly is).  Lee is supposed to be a classic pocket passer.

So, why the huge increase in sacks?  Simple.  Lee is a better passing QB.  Period.  Dot.

It's OK, Rantards of the world.  Breathe.  Read it again.  Ponder it.  Because it's true. 

Go back and watch game film.  Lee is a much more polished passer.  Better throwing motion.  More accurate.  Hits far more receivers in stride.  Throws far fewer passes behind receivers.  And gets rid of the football quicker.  Lee is a better passer than Jordan Jefferson.  Jefferson's numbers are slightly better for a couple of reasons.  First, Jefferson throws A TON of short passes.  Second, Jefferson hasn't had the benefit of a healthy running attack so he's HAD to throw more.  And Lee shared time with Hatch for the first few games.  After 4 games, Lee had thrown 77 passes to Jefferson's 101.

Lee is also braver than Jefferson.  He took more chances last year.  He made more great throws.  He also overplayed his hand a lot and threw a BUNCH of interceptions, 7 of them returned for touchdowns.

So.  What am I saying?  I'm saying Jordan Jefferson is having a pretty good sophomore year as a QB.  I'm saying at this time last year, Jarrett Lee was having a pretty good freshman year as a QB.  Until Florida.

Would Lee be able to lead this LSU team to the same 5-0 record?  Obviously, there's absolutely no way to tell.  But there's at least a small chance that Lee would have better numbers this year, be more accurate, and have hit Lafell and Toliver in stride more consistently.  Or not. We'll probably never know.  But if it becomes necessary to know, I hope Lee is ready to grab the reins.  Because as crazy as this season seems, it will get crazier if Jefferson gets hurt and Lee returns to 2008 form.  Because this next fella isn't ready to take the whole shebang.

RUSSELL SHEPARD

This kid is impressive.  He hasn't really been a big factor in any games, but that's not his fault.  First of all, he's only played a few downs per game.  Secondly, the defense knows he's going to carry the ball every time he's in the game.  It's not exactly deceptive.  And yet he still gets about 7 yards per carry.  That's pretty impressive.  Imagine how effective he could be if defenses were forced to honor the pass when he's in the game.

So why not have him throw the ball?  Seems like Gary Crowton and Les Miles are missing the boat on Shepard's talent.  Nah. 

When the game is in doubt, Shep doesn't see the field.  I think it's pretty clear that Miles and Crowton are giving Shep his touches to get him seasoned, to let  him get bloodied a bit.  But it's not Shep's time yet.  The Tigers have boup coup beaucoup weapons in the arsenal. 

Still - the first time Shep throws the ball, some defense is going to be very surprised and it could be a very big play.

Perhaps that team will be Florida?  Hmmm...

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: An Intervention

We need to talk. 

You have an expectation problem and you need help. 

Ever since LSU blew out Georgia Tech in the Peach Bowl last year, you've been secretly expecting a dominating season this year.  Don't deny it - you thought we'd crush teams with our offense and maybe only lose to Florida. 

Oh, that's not what you've been SAYING to people.  You've been telling your friends that LSU will probably lose three games this year.  But secretly, you've been expecting MUCH more. 

You're destroying your season, dude.  There's a perfectly good football seaon happening right under your nose, a winning football season, a bowl season - and you're destroying it - all because you have an expectation problem.  You need to stop.

You need to face some facts and rehabilitate your expectations.

FACT:  Jordan Jefferson is a true sophomore QB with only, what, 6 starts?  He's not a world-beater yet.  The QBs that led the 2003 and 2007 teams were fifth year seniors.  HUGE difference.  Jefferson is doing fine.  He's working on his timing.  But he's not there yet.  When he gets there, though, he'll be special.

FACT:  LSU's offensive line is still a work in progress.  That's regettable, since we're approaching mid-season, but it's a fact.  And we're seriously missing Brett Helms and Herman Johnson!  But this offensive line is NOT last year's offensive line.  The running game is NOT Charles Scott's fault.  It's not the coaches' fault.  Everyone is waiting for the offensive line to wake up.

FACT:  Without a quality offensive line that can open holes, and without a seasoned QB that can pick apart a secondary, LSU isn't going to dominate anyone consistently.  The offense is going to sputter at times this year. 

FACT:  LSU's defense this year is not going to dominate anyone.  Period.  The defense is going to bend.  Occassionally it will break.  But sometimes, they'll also make big plays because of the amazing athletes LSU has.  So stop expecting a game full of 3 and outs.  Aint gonna happen.  Stop expecting a top 10 ranking in defensive statistics.  Not very likely. 

FINAL FACT:  This LSU football team is going to play up or down to it's competition.  All year.  The team isn't looking for it's peronality anymore.  The team has found it's personality - and that's it.  Cardiac Cats, 2009 version. 

Look.  You and I have a lot in common.  And I enjoy hanging out with you.  But you are ruining your football season and running off your friends with all your unrealistic expectations.  No one wants to be around an angry, unhappy, manic-depressive football fan.

If you need treatment, spend time pondering the LSU football teams under Mike Archer and Curley Hallman.  That's what LSU football used to be like. 

You need to do something, dude.  And quickly.  Because LSU is about to enter the meat of the SEC schedule.  And with your expectations, I'm worried about you.  You may not have any sanity or friends left after the Florida game.

I'm only pointing all this out because I care.

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Driveby Edition

On the road. My random and haphazard thoughts on last night's 31-3 win over the Ragin Cajuns.

Good stuff

• A win is a win.  And this one was never in doubt, not even close.
• Defense looked very good in spots and didn't give up a big play. 
• Chad Jones - 2 interceptions, 1 pass breakup, 4 tackles - very good night.
• That win over UW looks pretty sweet considering they beat the Trojans!
• Lafell and Toliver looked good.  Randle got his first catch.
• Helton was consistent and had a 44 yard average per punt.
• Awesome goal line stand!
• The school formerly known as USL still hasn't scored a TD on LSU in like 85 years. 

Annoying, Fans are Never Happy Stuff

• Jordan Jefferson still not opening the field with a credible long ball = stack the box.
• Offensive line is inconsistent to be generous.  Big Herm's/Brett Helms absences are being felt in a huge way.
• No killer instinct so far in this team.
• Shepard will not be effective if he runs every single time he gets the ball.
• Richard Dickson should be getting 3 or 4 more passes per game over the middle to make the LBs honor the pass.
• There was no flow to this game, and the offense looked downright confused at times. 

It's still early, but it's getting less early.  Mississippi State is the last tune up game of the season.  Georgia's offense is rolling.  Florida is Florida.  I expect LSU will be 5-1 coming out of the Florida game, but to avoid being 4-2, the offense is going to have to get moving.  360 total yards against this Ragin Cajun team does not give me confidence that LSU will be able to run with the SEC big dogs, even if the defense is able to rein in UGA and Tebow a bit.

OVERALL:  Glad of the easy win, but nervous about the next three games.

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Wet and Ugly-- LSU 23, Vandy 9

(image:  LSUSports.net)

To paraphrase Coach Miles himself, it wasn't the prettiest of wins.  But victory is the key point.

It was the offense's turn to underperform as LSU struggled to establish a consistent running attack against Vanderbilt.  The defense, however, played much better football, particularly in the second half. 

The weather clearly impacted the game in the first half, drenching almost the entire second quarter.  With that in mind, it's a good sign that LSU only lost one fumble.  Both teams, however, put the ball on the carpet a few times.  But by the mid-third quarter, even the mist subsided and the field was in remarkably good shape for the amount of rain the stadium got during the day.

Rather than recap (you can get that here), lets laser in on a few positions on both sides of the football.

LSU @ WASHINGTON, Sat, August 5th: A Massacre

Kickoff: 7:30 Pacific (9:30 Central)

Weather Outlook: Cloudy Thurs thru Sat, 60% chance of showers on gameday, but clearing towards kickoff. Highs in mid 60s, lows in mid 50s, light winds.

If you've found our little blog, you already know the standard Husky stuff: new coaching staff, winless 2008, athletic QB, nice venue, guardedly optimistic fanbase.

Stuff you may not know?

-- The Huskies were Co-National Champs in 1991 with Miami, and have 15 conference titles, including winning the very first PAC-10 title in 1916, and their most recent was in 2000 (3-way with Oregon and Oregon State).

-- The Huskies are 15-14-1 all-time in bowl games with their last appearance in the 2002 Sun Bowl (24-34 loss to Purdue).

-- Sarkesian is the 27th Head Coach of the program. Don James took the Huskies to the National Championship in 1991 in his 17th year as Head Coach.

-- Washington is 2-5 against SEC teams all-time, with wins against Florida and Mississippi St, and losses to Alabama (x4) and LSU (x1). Interestingly, the Mississippi St game was actually a loss, but the Bulldogs had to forfeit the game later due to an ineligible player.

(Incidentally, LSU is 12-3 against PAC-10 teams all-time with a winning or even record against all teams they've played except - wait for it - STANFORD! Played them once, lost 24-14 in 1977 Sun Bowl.)

-- Big name NFL players: Warren Moon (QB) and Steve Emtman (DL).

Enough of that. :) What does it all mean? Washington has a proud football heritage, has a good history of competing nationally and in their conference, and hasn't done anything since about 2002. And by haven't done anything, I mean they're 25-59 (.423) from 2002-2008. It's a pretty stark turnaround and their fanbase has to be hurting mightily.

MATCHUPS

Washington's Offense vs. LSU's Defense. Jake Locker has wheels and is a great athlete. Is he a great college QB? Washington fans will find out this year, because he sat out most of last year with an injury. In Locker, LSU faces what some folks call a poor man's Tim Tebow.  Whatever.  I don't think Locker has anywhere near Tebow's influence on his teammates, his power, his finesse throwing the football. Personally, I think Locker looks like a nifty runner for a QB (an upgraded Andrew Hatch) with a decent arm.  The problem for Washington is that they don't have enough high quality skill players to keep LSU from putting a spy on Locker almost every play.

Without going into a roster exercise, let me wrap it up with the following sample quotes from an article (Scout, $$) I read recently about the last Washington scrimmage prior to this week's LSU prep:

The offense looked out of sync and very bad at times. Jake Locker was
rushed and receivers dropped balls.

And about the offensive line:

It is not the most imposing of lines, but the left side of the line seems
experienced enough and may be able to do the job. However, the right side is going to get tested, and oh are they young.

By contrast, LSU's defense is going to be vastly improved over last season. Hell, the defense was vastly improved by the time the Chik-fil-A Bowl rolled around.  If Washington's defense (a defense Locker and the offense see every day) can dominate in a scrimmage, imagine the challenge LSU's defense is going to present. Containing Locker will be the order of the day on Saturday, because he's not going to have time to throw and will get flushed out of the pocket a lot. I think Alem, Levingston, and the LBers are going to be visiting Locker all evening and he's going to throw a couple of picks.

Advantage LSU.

LSU's Offense vs. Washington's Defense. The Husky defense is likely going to challenge LSU's offense in the first half. The defensive line is fairly stout, led by Daniel Te'o Nieshiem. There's also a good bit of depth there relative to the rest of the team. The linebackers seem solid as well. But the Huskies are not boasting a very good defensive backfield, and have significant vulnerabilities at cornerback. I look for LSU to try to establish the run early and wear down the defensive line. But the key, in my opinion, will be pass protection for Jordan Jefferson. If JJ has time, he will be able to pick the Washington secondary apart. Terrance Toliver, with his length, should have a coming out party of sorts. The wildcard here will be turnovers and penalties. If LSU maintains it's stingy fumble-free offense, and Jefferson can avoid interceptions, I don't see how Washington's secondary can contain the weapons that LSU will present.

Advantage LSU.

Special Teams. I have no idea. Helton and Jasper are getting good reviews from the coaches. And their fall stats, at least what's been released, sound good. Washington's kicker seems to be making his coaches happy. I think Trindon Holliday is always a threat, and Ron Brooks will probably have a good year returning as well. But I'm not willing to call this one.

We'll call it even.

Intangibles. Both of these teams are hungry. Very hungry. UW is sick and tired of mediocrity. You can sense it on their message boards, and you only have to look at their football history to know that the last 6 or 7 years have been gut wrenching for true Husky fans. Likewise, the team and coaches are going to be out to prove that a PAC-10 team can handle an SEC powerhouse. On the other sideline, LSU will be looking to take their 8-5 frustrations out on their first opponent. This will be a grudge game, and the grudge won't be against Washington, it'll be against the memory of last season. Washington fans and players may not fully understand this because it's a different perspective. Theirs is the perspective LSU had during the Archer/Hallman years. It's hard to understand how bad 8-5 feels when your team just went 0-12. Anyway - both teams hungry, but LSU has more to prove and more to lose.

Advantage LSU.

WRAP-UP: LSU jumps on the Huskies early thanks to turnovers and big plays. Washington makes a short run to get it closer, but LSU is ahead by 14 by halftime.

Final score: 45-7 LSU.

SUNDAY SOAPBOX PRELUDE: Surprises, Disappointments and WTFO?

Aight. Here. We. Go! Game week.

Gonna take a look at the Huskies in a bit. But first, a quick rundown of stuff that caught my attention in the team's prep leading up to this week.

In no particular order - just as they arrive in my pea brain. By the way - my disappointment might be your surprise, or vice-versa. Go with it!

SURPRISE!

1. Craig Loston actually joined the team! I haven't followed recruiting for years and years, but Loston's recruitment, signing and ultimate clearance to play has to be one of the most dramatic of the last few years. Les Miles sez he'll play against the Huskies - which I take as meaning he'll play special teams. But I guess we'll see.

2. Harry Coleman is a linebackah! Those who follow Chavis closely say this is exactly the kind of guy he likes - fast, loves to hit, agile. Makes perfect sense to me - just as long as he's big enough to shed FBs and cut-blocking offensive linemen...But hey - I just sit here and type. Perhaps Chavis knows his business...

3. Freshman QB Chris Garrett is the real deal! I'm actually not completely surprised by this because his recruiting video looked pretty damned good and his all-star game performance was VERY good. I've been touting him for awhile. He'll redshirt unless LSU faces a catastrophe of injuries (knocking on wood).

4. Stevan Ridley may be ready to go! After ACL surgery and rehab, and very little info being released, it's tough to tell just how recovered he really is. But if you've watched Ridley run in the past, you know that this is the Charles Scott back of the immediate future for LSU. While some fans will impatiently call for Mike Ford to inherit the job next year, I predict - if he's healthy - Ridley will be that guy. I hope he gets some good, quality time this year. I'd play him over KW, personally. But Miles won't , and I don't blame him. I actually appreciate Miles' loyalty to his seniors - to a point. I think KW deserves the last chance at building his draft stock. I still hope Ridley gets his touches.

DISAPPOINTMENTS

1. Carneal Ainsworth quits the team. I feel for the kid and his family's loss. His departure is not a huge deal in terms of team depth. But playing LSU football is an awesome, life altering, opportunity and I hope Ainsworth finds his way back to the program as a walkon. Because he'll want those BCS championship rings from 2010 and 2011 - they'll be collectors items!

2. Freshman FB Dominique Allen. I'm not calling the kid out. I'm just disappointed for him that (it appears) he won't be able to take advantage of a golden opportunity of getting early FB time. Allen, it has been reported, is not in playing shape right now. Which is interesting because he played RB in high school and he's listed behind two former walkon offensive linemen at the moment. Anyway - Allen has a lot of potential if he focuses and does what the coaches are asking.

3. The schedule. I hate LSU's schedule this year. I hate the away games at Bama and Georgia and Ole Miss. I hate that Bama and Florida have the week off before playing LSU. And I hate that we are playing in-state rivals USL, Tulane and La Tech all in the same season. There ain't shit anyone can do about any of it. But it still pisses me off. Because, honestly, LSU has a chance to be very, very good this year. And with just one break in that schedule - like oh, I don't know, having Florida play Georgia before LSU instead of the other way around - the Tigers could realistically vie for the SEC championship. But as it stands, it's a very, very steep climb for a lot of reasons, not least among them the schedule. As for the small state schools - good for them, but I'm getting impatient for an ACC or a Big 12 mid-level team, especially early in the season.

4. Les Miles picking his nose during post practice interviews. Seriously, Coach. You're a millionaire executive of a multi-million dollar brand and you're on TV and camera all the time. Nobody thinks your scratching with that thumb move. Everyone knows you're about a heartbeat away from going knuckle deep on a booger safari. (I'm kidding, Coach. In fact, you average 10 wins every year, I'll dig it for ya!)

WTFO?

1. Walk-on OL Richard Dugas is our FB?! As a former high school offensive lineman who probably could've walked on at Southeastern or maybe Nicholls (shut up - it could've happened), I'm all about Dugas getting his chance. But wow. LSU has had some really good FBs in the recent past - Miles seems high on Dugas. Will Allen play later in the season?

2. Jarrett Lee. He could be in the disappointment section, but after last year, it doesn't fit. If anyone had taken my bet, I would've wagered that Lee would be a serious contender for the starting QB job right now. However, Jordan Jefferson is the LSU starting QB and I don't get the impression it's really even that close of a call. Will Jarrett Lee shake off last year and be ready to step up and provide an experienced hand if, God forbid, Jefferson gets hurt? Or will Russell Shepard take those reins? Or will Chris Garrett have to burn his redshirt?

3. Kellen Theriot. I was high on this kid when he committed to LSU in 2007. Mostly because, if I remember right, he played quarterback in high school and was rated that way. But he is a bull of an athlete, enrolled early, and I thought he looked pretty damned strong at LB during the 2008 Spring game. Since then, he's been injured and I haven't heard anything at all.

4. 2010 defensive line recruiting. This is a just a minor WTF, but for a team that has placed a lot of defensive lineman in the NFL, LSU seems to me to be having a tough time pulling high quality defensive linemen in this recruiting class. Of the 3 DEs and 2 DTs on the board right now (Scout), one is really a Tight End (Dickson), one is being rumored to have OL in his future (Allen), and the other three aren't exactly national recruits. Nothing wrong with that, per se. And Les Miles hasn't called me recently to give me his thoughts on the matter. I'm just sayin - WTFO? I thought we were defensive line university? Perhaps we're building gaps to entice Rasco and Johnson next year? Hmmm....

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Expectations for 2009 - Part 1

Touring the LSU internet ghetto (and I say that with great love and affection), I've seen predictions of everything from an undefeated national champ year to 10-3 and second in the SEC West. I haven't seen much doom and gloom out there. (Don't you love that 4 losses is a bad year!)

Let's look at the schedule and try to set some realistic expectations for the year.

1. @ U-Dub. It's got to be tough to be a hopeful Husky fan after last year's dismal 0-12 record. But the good news in Seattle is that UW has a new coaching staff, and therefore a new outlook. QB Jake Locker, who is dangerous with his feet, is healthy again. His absence for 3/4 of last year's season had to contribute mightily to the team's poor performance. Clearly, the worst is over.

But all is not champagne and roses, either. While Washington rebuilds, LSU continues to reload. For example, the Huskies have recruited 13 4-stars (Rivals) over the past 4 years. LSU has averaged 13 4-stars EVERY YEAR during that time frame. Washington's program is built on 3-star talent, LSU on 4-star talent. The Huskies are hurting on the OL and in the defensive backfield. If LSU's defense is as improved as many of us think it is, LSU should cruise to an easy opening game victory. And while Les Miles is very hesitant to run up the score, the pent up frustration of last season's 5 losses could fuel a rout. LSU wins easily (1-0, 0-0).

2. Vandy. The Commodores return a very good defense and an improving offense looking for a QB. After beating Boston College in a bowl game last year, Vandy will be hungry to get back to a bowl. Key to the game: LSU's offensive line will have to play well against a fairly strong Commodore pass rush. If that happens, then LSU should be able to stretch the field. If not, then Vandy's habit last year of forcing turnovers may reemerge and that would be bad for LSU, obviously.

The 'Dores may no longer be the easy homecoming win that they've been in the past. But one bowl season doesn't make them a force in the SEC East, either. LSU will have to respect Vandy for the solid football team that they are. But I don't see Vandy stopping LSU's potent offense. Nor do I see Vandy scoring 20 points on a vastly improved LSU defense. LSU wins easily again (2-0, 1-0).

3. USL. Yes, I know they've changed their name. [Scoff. Arrogant grin. Take bite of corndog.] I'm not going to waste a lot of time on the Ragin' Cajuns. I have always loved USL. What self-respecting Coon-Ass doesn't want the Cajuns to have a great season? However. The Cajuns are rebuilding at QB, RB and WR. Fortunately, the OL is supposed to be very good, which should make that rebuilding easier. However, the Cajun defense is not good. And, against a loaded LSU offense, that spells serious trouble for them. This one is a full-up rout, folks. Les Miles will have trouble keeping 50 points off the board unless the turnovers for LSU are just horrible. Lots of playing time for the 2s and 3s in this cake walk (3-0, 1-0). [Scoff again. Arrogant grin. Finish corndog.]

4. @ Miss State. The Dawgs are getting no respect this year. After a disappointing season in 2008, and a new coaching staff led by Dan Mullen, the conventional wisdom is that Miss State won't win a game in the SEC this year. Perhaps. To be sure, the Bulldogs are not loaded with talent and are still rebuilding after a strong 2007 season. However, there are some bright spots that should cause LSU fans to at least respect this game. First, RB Anthony Dixon is a force. On any other SEC team, he'd be a household name, I think. Secondly, the Bulldog defense will be pretty good. At this point in the season, it will be the best all-around defense the Tigers will have faced.

This is an SEC road game for LSU, and that's never easy. Starkville is not the most hostile place to play, but away is away. Miss State, if they start strong, could be 3-0 heading into this game. But it's more likely they'll be 1-2 after having beaten Jackson State but suffering tough road losses to Auburn and Vandy. On the other sideline, LSU has Georgia and Florida after Miss State. So, this game has the potential to be a struggle for LSU, at least in the first half, as Miss State tries to add a signature win to its season and LSU works to focus on the task at hand and not the road ahead. I see a punch in the face for LSU, followed by a very strong finish. Easy win, but not in the first half (4-0, 2-0).

5. @ Georgia. I worry about this game. Most folks (media, bloggers and message board types) seem to think that Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss are the SEC teams to watch for other than LSU. They purposeful relegate Georgia to the second tier this coming year, mostly because Stafford and Moreno opted for the NFL. Fine. Those two were offensive juggernauts, no doubt. But here's the deal. Joe Cox is a 5th year senior who waited his time behind a #1 NFL draft pick. (Sound familiar?) Georgia's offensive line will be very strong. Georgia recruits very, very well and is stacked with talent like A.J. Green (WR) and a very deep RB stable led by Caleb King. Did I mention the offensive line? It's awesome when healthy.

On defense, the picture doesn't get much more comfy for Georgia's foes. The worst being said on the internet is that Georgia lacks a credible pass rush. We'll see if that holds true. But the rest of the defense is good to great, with big names like Rennie Curran (LB) and Reshad Jones (S) leading the pack. Georgia's defense won't lead the SEC (probably), but they won't be easy to score against either.

I don't see much breathing room in this one. Mark Richt has averaged 10 wins a year in his 8 seasons at Georgia. Umm. That's damned good, especially in the SEC. For my money, this may be the most competitive game of the year for LSU. On pure homerism, I give the coin flip to LSU in a very close game, won mostly on special teams play and the versatility of the LSU offense. LSU squeaks one out (5-0, 3-0).

6. Florida. This "analysis" could be almost as quick as the USL Ragin' Cajun segment, but for a different reason. Do I really need to explain how good the current BCS national champs really are? Do I have to remind folks that they return everyone from the 9th ranked defense in the country. EVERYONE? Yep, everyone. Do we need to talk about Tebow? Or Brandon James? Or the fact that Florida's 2 deep, much more than LSUs, is almost transparent - they could swap jerseys and in many cases you just wouldn't know it?

For LSU to win the SEC, they have to beat this team twice. Sorry, Tiger fans. Maybe next year. Florida is just too good right now. While I think it's completely possible that LSU takes this game in Tiger Stadium, there's a big factor that leads me to doubt it. LSU has Georgia the week before this game. Florida has - the week off. An extra week to prepare for LSU's offensive weapons. An extra week to rest from the dubious rigors of Charleston South, Troy, Tenn and @Kentucky. That is not a great recipe.

The good news is that Tebow is a known quantity. But that's the bad news, as well. Love him or hate him, he's a warrior and a very good college QB. LSU certainly can beat UF in Tiger Stadium. And I really hope I'm wrong here. But I give this one to Florida in a competitive but not all that close brawl (5-1, 3-1).

Tune in - I'll have the second half up soon.

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: On a Monday...

It's almost time, folks. If you're like me (and God help you if you are), you're getting restless. Nothing seems interesting if it's not Purple and Gold.

Major League baseball? Whatever. I stopped paying attention LONG before the doping crap. Now, I just have more reason to ignore MLB.

I only care about the NFL when I'm playing in a good fantasy football league. And I'm not this year (at least not yet). The Saints should be good this year, so maybe I'll shamelessly jump on the bandwagon (Joshua can flog me for my lack of faith).

What I'm REALLY hankering for is the start of college football. And, more precisely, the start of LSU football. And it's almost here...just around the corner. I can smell it. I can hear it. I just can't see it yet.

What is it about college football that seems so superior to me than any other sporting event?

Well, first of all, I identify with the players. Like all college athletes, the young men who suit up every fall give a shit. Most of them have not yet become jaded and insular. They are excited to play, excited about earning a starting job, excited about excellence, and they are approachable to the fans. They still appear to be (and generally are) one of us. Normal folks. Sure they possess more physical size and ability, and they've done well for themselves on the football field. But at the heart of it, most of them are still just 19-23 year old dudes driving modest cars, chasing skirt and playing beer pong.

Secondly, I love the passion and the pagentry of the game. Only in college football does a team, led by the band and the cheerleaders, march down a hill to the cadence of a drum and horn section, like a Roman legion on it's way to battle for the honor and benefit of the citizenry. I mean, really, if the march down the hill outside Tiger Stadium doesn't cause you to well up with emotion and pride, then you're either not an LSU fan or you're a robot. In essence, I guess I'm talking about the band. The Golden Band from Tiger Land plays such a central role in my emotional attachment to LSU football that when I can't hear them on TV broadcasts, the game just isn't as good. Regardless of the score. And LSU isn't the only band I love. Hold the tomatoes, folks, but I can hum the Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan and Notre Dame fight songs by heart. With Kieth Jackson saying "Whoah, Nelly" in the background. It's just awesome. I love everything about it.

Next, I love the controversy and rivalry. The college games is so unpredictable and there are so many huge upsets every year, that you cannot count any game as a sure win. The NFL is like this in some respects, but I would argue that NFL teams live and die more on the performance of a couple of skill players and less on players performing above their skill levels for a particular game. Emotion just doesn't play as big a role in the NFL. I also love the BCS controversy. It makes bowl season a lot of fun and I anticipate the arguements for and against every year. Finally, there are some AWESOME rivalries that, regardless of your team loyalties, you probably just can't resist watching. As much as I cannot stand the Big 10, I will always set my DVR to record Ohio State and Michigan. Same goes for Alabama and Auburn, Florida and Georgia, or Army and Navy, for that matter.

Finally, I have become addicted to college football recruiting. It's almost as much drama as the season itself, and it's amazing to watch these young teenagers learn the college game and become national names. The Ryan Perrilloux and Jacob Hester stories are even more interesting when you know the recruiting backgrounds and the expectations out of high school. So, this year I can barely wait to see Russell Shepard, Rueben Randle and Craig Loston (maybe) in action.

I've waited long enough. The surprisingly good basketball season is all but a memory. The baseball national championship is fading just a tad into the memory category. It's time engage my obsession. I'm SO ready for some damned football!

SOAPBOX: Expectations

Basketball: MSU 67, LSU 57. LSU's loss to Miss St in the semi-finals of the SEC tourny was disappointing. But not unexpected. Miss St has a good team and a good coach and they match up well to LSU's weakness (power in the paint). LSU is not playing well offensively of late. So, I honestly didn't expect LSU to win this one.

As for the NCAA tourny, my expectations are a #6 or 7 seed, a win in the first round, then a slightly ungraceful exit. LSU has: talent, but not loads of it; experience, but not on the bench; and most critically, a well-established achilles heel. A good team will be able to play solid defense against Marcus Thornton and take advantage of LSU's lack of power in the paint.

With Marcus and Quinton Thornton, Garrett Temple, Terry Martin and Chris Johnson graduating, LSU will have a big challenge rebuilding next year. Trent Johnson has not been able to recruit to fill the "big man" need. So, don't expect another run at the SEC in 2010. But recruiting looks to be more solid in the coming years with LA talent. So the short term isn't great, but the futue looks bright. Will require some patience, though. LSU fans aren't exactly good at patience these days, me included.

Basketball Expectations: 2nd round defeat in NCAA, tough year in 2010 but awesome recruiting year. 2011 will be the year for this team, especially if Bo Spencer stays for 4 years.

Baseball. LSU 5, Kentucky 3. The #3 Tigers won a pitching duel on Friday, with Anthony Ranaudo hurling 13 strikeouts in about 6 innings. The UK starter had 14 Ks. Louis Coleman got the win as closer by coming into a tied ballgame and shutting Kentucky down.

Although the Tigers are still playing good baseball, there have been a couple of disappointing outings that make me wonder if expectations aren't just a tad high for this year. For instance, LSU lost the home series to Illinois. The Illini are not an SEC or ACC or PAC-10 caliber baseball team. Neither is ULL, who beat LSU last week.

LSU's schedule includes much tougher series than Illinois. Georgia, Arkansas and Ole Miss are all Top-25 teams. South Carolina and Kentucky are good teams as well.

The team entered SEC play (or just prior) with an aura of dominance around it. The pitching staff looked brutal, and the bats looked simian. So, I think thos of us who follow baseball at least a little have begun to think the team would waltz into the CWS this year.

Well, what we're finding out is that the pitching rotation has holes in it. Not big ones. And not permanent ones. But the Tiger pitching staff is still incomplete.

This isn't a doom/gloom thing. This is just resetting expectations (mine if noone elses). A CWS run is easily within the reach of this team, but it won't be quite the cakewalk that the early non-conference scores hinted at. There will be plenty of drama on the way. Unless the pitching staff solidifies. If that happens? Then this could get ugly for LSU's opponents. Because the hitting is there to win lots of ballgames.

Baseball Expectations: SEC Champs, CWS run. They have the talent to win it all this year (and next year). We'll see.

Football. Spring practice is underway and the early reports look good for LSU. There's a lot of talent - an embarassment of talent, really. And, some of that talent is very experienced, like Charles Scott, Keiland Williams, Brandon LaFell, Rahim Alem and Richard Dickson. A few of the younger players are getting early mention from the coaches, like Patrick Peterson (CB), Tim Molton (WR), and Josh Dworaczyk (OL). I think, in terms of expectations, what I'm hearing and reading from the LSU fanatics out there is exactly correct. Guarded optimism.

LSU has a very high quality, but nonetheless FIRST YEAR, defensive coaching staff. And there is a ton of talent on the defensive side of the football. Last year's weakest link (defensive backfield) promises to be a very bright spot for LSU this year. Patrick Peterson has lived up to his recruiting billing. Chris Hawkins is talented and experienced (though he didn't practice on Fri, which is concerning). Behind these two corners, the depth is awesome, including last year's starter on the left - Jai Eugene. Safeties are deep and talented as well, and there's some talk that Chad Jones will be an every down free safety next season. The LB corps is young but, in my opinion, better than last year - the reserves (Baker and Minter) have me excited about depth here. And the DL is always at least competent. There's a lot of great talent and experience there as well, though the experienced depth is down a bit from last year.

The big topic on offense again this spring is QB. Jordan Jefferson ended on a huge high note last year, leading the team very competently in LSU's spanking of Georgia Tech. All accounts from practice point to a confident, poised JJ ready to take the job next year. Jarrett Lee has not transferred as some have suggested (maybe even hoped?) and so far is looking very good in practice as well. Haven't heard any comments about his leadership of the team yet, but it's early. I'll address the Lee situation in a bit. Russell Shepard is practicing. Not much else to say at this point. His passes haven't looked awesome, but hell - his buddies are still in high school. We'll give him a break. Chris Garrett has been impressing observers. Comments similar to: "If you didn't know who he was, you'd think he was a veteran." I think Garrett will redshirt if injuries allow, but I am very excited about this kid. Bookmark his name. The rest of the offense is going to be really good this year. Question marks exist at center and fullback. But the rest of the roster is very, very deep and talented.

Football Expectation: 3 losses, SEC West contender. I think 2 of the losses will be at the hands of some mix of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss. And one of the losses likely to a team LSU should have beaten. Why 3 losses? First of all, because the SEC West is strong next year, and we play the two strongest teams in the East. Second, the QBs are still young. Could we have another 1 or 2 loss season? Absolutely. I'm just not expecting it.

Finally, a few thoughts on Jarrett Lee. It's really embarassing and disheartening to read and listen to some of the asinine, classless bullshit out there regarding Lee. No doubt, he had a terrible, terrible season last year. But he also had some very bright moments, specifically against Auburn and South Carolina. And he's a tough, tough kid who seems like a team player. I think his experience fighting for the job with Andrew Hatch last year makes him a huge asset to the team regardless of whether he's the starter. I also think he has a chance to win the starting job next year. That thought illicits emotional responses from the Lee haters out there, but stand by folks. I'm not saying he WILL win the job. I don't even EXPECT him to win the job. I'm just saying he's a very talented QB (mechanically) and if he gets his head in the game and progresses in the off season, he will push Jefferson very, very hard for the starting job.

What pisses me off is the near certainty that, if Jefferson gets hurt, or Lee just flat out beats him out for the job, a good portion of the fan base is going to lose it's collective mind and hang Lee from the yard arm before the season even begins. It hasn't even happened yet, and I'm already dreading it. So, I'm asking all you Lee haters out there (and you know who you are) to take a deep breath and give the kid a break.

What would really benefit LSU is JJ and Lee working as a #1 and #2 team, providing the Tigers with a potent and experienced backup option. Without Lee (transfer), LSU is a much less stable team next season.

Thanks to Joshua for keeping the Blog going - I've enjoyed reading your posts, brother. I'm not sure if I'm back regularly yet, but I will be. In the meantime, keep it up!

SOAPBOX: Utah? WTF!

Utah owned SECW champs Alabama last night in the Superdome. As in it was never really close. The 31-17 drubbing finished a perfect 13-0 season for the Mountain West team, and thrusts them squarely into yet another brewing challenge to the BCS system's validity. If the Utes can go 13-0, beating Alabama, Oregon State, and Boise State, then how can a one loss Florida or Oklahoma claim to be the champs? I'll let others argue that one. Honestly, short of an NFL style playoff system that drags out for another month, there is no perfect answer. I'll leave it at that.

But back to Utah.

This is a team that has recruited exactly four 4* players in the last five years. Not in EACH of the last five years. In the last five years COMBINED. Their average star rating for the last five recruiting classes is 2.4. The highest their recruiting classes have ranked since 2004 is 55th. The only SEC team they favorably compare to from a recruiting standpoint is Vanderbilt (funny, that). Their starting QB is a fifth-year 2*. He made John Parker Wilson look like a scout team QB by comparison last night.

Bama, on the other hand, signed as many 4* and 5* offensive linemen in 2006 alone (4) than Utah signed in all positions in the combined years of 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. Bama's average star rating over that period is 3.3. The lowest they ranked was near #20, and the highest was last year's #1 rated class.

Saban makes over $4 million a year. Whittingham was making $4 million over SIX years before signing a recent raise to $6 million over 5 years.

Of course, any team can have a great day and beat any other team, right?

Yet this is the Sugar Bowl - against the great and historic Alabama Crimson Tide, resurgent under the recruiting prowess and coaching genius of Nick Saban. Surely there's no way Bama was overlooking this team. Surely they weren't unprepared.

No, I think Utah was a better team. How is that possible, considering the serious disparity in recruiting and coaching salaries between the two teams?

Well, it's impossible to know for sure. Here are my two educated guesses.

1. Salaries define past coaching performance mixed with hope and sprinkled with incentive for good measure. Salaries do not define ACTUAL coaching performance.

2. Recruiting is like mining. You generally get raw material of varying quality and it's the coaches' job to make it shiny and profitable. Sometimes, an up-and-coming operation will be able to get more out of lesser known raw product than a well-established, "elite" operation, where too much inertia and internal chaos get in the way of processing the very finest raw material available. It's called efficiency and waste.

The vast majority of Bama fans won't like those answers. Most Bama fans won't like any answers this morning. And I would be the same way. But to me, Bama was outcoached. Not just this year. But outcoached as a program by Utah. You can't put it all on Saban. This loss is about Utah being a much more solid football program - in total - than Alabama. First Urban Meyer, then Whittingham. The Utah athletic director knows how to pick coaches, apparently.

Would Utah have beaten LSU or Florida or Georgia?

Well, with that passing game, I think LSU could've been in serious trouble. I can't speak for the Gators or the Dawgs.

I'm impressed with what Whittingham and Utah have done.

Alabama has some big holes to fill for next year, but they have to remain the favorite in the West. And I'm cool with that, too. I prefer Les Miles and LSU to be slightly under estimated.

As for Utah, they graduate a TON of seniors this year. And that's a program that rebuilds, not reloads. They'll be remembering 2008 for a long, long time!

SOAPBOX: Shotgun Blast

Peach Bowl: LSU wins. LSU's defense will suffer, but not submit. LSU's offense will awaken. This will be the beginning of LSU's run at the next crystal football. LSU 34 Georgia Tech 28

Quarterback: Jefferson will start. If he doesn't stink the joint up, he may see most if not all of the snaps. Georgia Tech has a weak defensive backfield. If LSU can exploit that, and Jefferson can throw accurately and smartly, this game could get out of hand in LSU's favor. If Jefferson can't do the job, Lee is available.

Defensive Coordinator: Looks like Chavis from Tennessee. Good. It would have been disappointing to me to see LSU go after Walker from UCLA. Walker will probably be a great college coach one day. But LSU needs the defense to DEFINITELY recover, not possibly recover. Chavis is a known quantity. Tennessee has had very good defenses for a long time. Walker is far more of a "gut feel" kind of hire. I'd rather take the known quantity.

The Orgeron: Sounds like he's coming to LSU as well. Interesting. There are few moderate opinions about Ed Orgeron. But you cannot deny his pedigree. And he's supposedly a great recruiter.

Recruiting: LSU already has one of the best recruiting classes in the school's history on the books. It appears that the Tigers just might take that up a notch. In fact, LSU may get close to the best recruiting class in the history of classifying such things. 8 five star signees is not out of the question. 2009 will be a great year. 2010 will be THE year.

Basketball: Did you see any of the Washington State game the other day? No? Geaux to LSUSports.net and watch it (it's free!). Great game. Frustrating, but great. Here's what you'll be glad to know. The Tigers play great, aggressive defense. Marcus Thornton is fun to watch offensively and defensively. And this team does not quit. They are fun to watch, and this is going to be a turning-point season for LSU basketball. Johnson has LSU playing very well.

Happy New Years, Ya'll

GEAUX TIGERS!

DEFENSIVE SOAPBOX: Triple Option Bogey Man

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Ramblin' Wreck runs the triple option. Otherwise known as the wishbone - which is actually a variation of the triple option, as is the veer. Otherwise known as "I bet you can't stop my running game."

Georgia Tech runs this offense very well. They run it well because Paul Johnson, their new head coach, has run it FOREVER and knows it inside and out. In fact, there's something called the Paul Johnson version. So, yeah, he's familiar.

And they (Georgia Tech) have done well with it because - news flash - few if any other teams in BCS conferences run it anymore. No one practices against it anymore. So the first time they see it is when they prepare for their game with Navy, Army, or Georgia Tech.

But is the triple option - even (gasp) the Paul Johnson version - really all that? Well, Garndner-Webb - that perennial powerhouse that you've never heard of, barely lost to them 10-7. And vastly overrated teams like Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia (OK, Virginia isn't overrated - everyone thinks they stink) beat Georgia Tech. Yes, Georgia Tech beat Georgia. And, yes, Georgia beat LSU. But here's the deal. Georgia Tech had 19 yards of passing against Georgia. Not 19 yards on one reception. Not 19 yards for one receiver. 19 yards. PERIOD.

I'd say that's - eh - predictable! Yes, yes - it's the triple option! It's deceptive! It requires discipline! HELLOOOOOO! LSU has an insane amount of time to prep for this. LSU can figure out this one-trick pony. The real question is, can Georgia Tech develop a passing game in that same amount of time? But we'll get to that.

How does one stop the triple option? Assignment football. Everyone has an assignment and they stick to it. Now, I don't mean to make this sound easy. Georgia Tech knows the weaknesses of their own offense. They're going to mask as much as possible and make it challenging for our defense to pick up their assignments. (Who knows - they may come out THROWING!) But...

Assignment football means: can you win your 1 on 1 matchups? I'd say LSU has the clear advantage in that kind of a game. Assuming Les Miles and the Tigers are spending their Atlanta time homing in on who crushes who at the line of scrimmage, LSU should matchup very, very well. Let's face it - LSU is FULL of talent, has recruited very, very well for a long time now, and enters this game as healthy as any LSU team has been in recent memory. So assignment football should play to LSU's advantage, actually.

So - what does that MEAN? Well, simply, it means this.

Defensive Line: Two jobs. Keep the offensive line off of the linebackers. And keep the fullback from getting more than three yards a carry. Simple? Yes. Easy? No.

Linebackers: Middle linebacker has to read the dive or the fake, and scrape to the QB for the pitch. This is a key, and Beckwith will play a very important role here. Outside linebackers take the QB or the pitch as well. The read is everything.

Safeties: The strong safety is going to probably play a lot closer to the linebackers (almost a fourth linebacker (I'm talking to you, Chad Jones!!)) and provide safety valve to the linebackers on the pitch option. The free safety's job really is the same.

Cornerbacks: My bet is that Georgia Tech targets our cornerbacks. They need to lock down the receivers. We're young at corner - talented, but young. I would NOT be surprised to see Georgia Tech throw WAY more than they have all season long. In fact, I'd bet on it.

So - what does all this MEAN!?! GADDAMIT!

Key defensive players - Beckwith, Sheppard, Riley, Chad Jones, and whoever Miles decides is starting at corner.

What's interesting is that LSU fans have become accustomed to hearing lots of names in the secondary this year because we've played lots of spread type offenses, which call for the nickel and dime packages.

Georgia Tech, if they follow their tendencies, will not call for nickel and dime backs. So....will Patrick Peterson play or not? Remains to be seen...

Which brings us back to the passing game. LSU's weakness this season has NOT been the running game. In fact, in a decidedly off-season for LSU defenses (don't get me started on the co-coordinator bullshite), the LSU defense is still #17 in the country against the rush. Even with all the bullshite tackling (you know what I'm talkin' bout). So...

If'n I was Paul Johnson, here's what I'd do. Besides buy myself a really nice fishing boat that I cannot currently afford, I'd target LSU's cornerbacks. BIG TIME.

LSU will not be planning to rush the QB. There will be few if any stunts or blitzes. If Georgia Tech's QB executes some good play action, then he will definitely have time to throw. Because, let's face it, LSU has not been the best at pressuring the QB in a couple of years now.

So...

Paul Johnson, if you're reading. First of all - thankin' you. Second of all, I have no idea what I'm talkin' bout and Les Miles is ALL OVER your idea about the passing game thing.

Les Miles, if you're reading. I didn't mean anything when I said you weren't a great public speaker (although you could use some polish, bro...). But, seriously, onsiderke the asspe...

Sometime later this week - the offense....I bet you cannot wait!

SOAPBOX: Crowded at Quarterback?

The Peach Bowl has the potential to reveal which freshman QB has the upper hand going into the Spring. And that will be important because LSU is about to experience a log jam of talent at QB for the foreseeable future.

I made a conscious decision to leave Andrew Hatch out of most of this discussion. I guess there's a chance Hatch will make me look foolish for excluding him by playing a major role at QB next year. But I have a hard time believing that. I think Hatch played a role this year, and had a chance to grab the brass ring. It didn't work out. I think he's going to close out his time as an experienced, reliable backup. He could transfer, but he's probably tired of that. I'll get back to Hatch towards the end of this piece.

It sounds like Jefferson will start the Peach Bowl. And it appears that Lee's injury is healed and he'll be available. Both QBs are liable to see time, but it's not clear what the plan will be for rotating them in and out. What gets lost in all the conversation about these two freshmen is just that - THEY ARE FRESHMEN. Once in a very long while, a college freshman QB will have a great first season. It's no disgrace that didn't happen this year for these two men.

The challenge of matching scores with Georgia Tech will be a great competition for both of these fellas. I'm looking forward to watching them go at it. It's going to be important for one of them to separate himself going into the Spring, if he can. Because the picture gets cloudier after that.

Chris Garrett. From watching his film and reading his stats, I think Garrett might be one of the more underrated QBs in the country. He's a 3-star on Rivals and Scout. Based on his outstanding high-school career - setting school records for touchdowns, yardage and completions - the only factor keeping Garrett from a fourth star may be his mobility. He's a pocket passer. But he's a 6' 4", 222lb rifle-armed, dead-accurate pocket passer. And he's enrolling at LSU in January. And he's smart. And he has a great work ethic. While it seems likely (and rational) that Garrett will end up redshirting next year, it is by no means a lock. If he has a good game at the Junior World Championship of American Football (I had no idea that game even existed - his participation is a rumor that I cannot confirm at this point), he may get his fourth star. And that might mean he's been under-evaluated. He could push Lee and Jefferson this Spring. And he looks to be a great compliment to this next fella.

Russell Shepard. If you're reading this, I'm going to assume you know who Shep is. The LSU-related internet is awash in adoration for this kid. And he probably deserves every bit of it. He's obviously ridiculously talented, unusually mature, and he just loves the idea of playing at LSU. What's not good about that? Like Garrett, he will graduate HS early and enroll at LSU in January. Since Shep is very much a Pat White kind of QB, he's likely to play a role in the LSU offense immediately in the Spring. He's a Percy Harvinesque runner. But he also has a very good arm, tons of poise, and has both accuracy and touch. Oh. And he LOVES the leadership role. So, the question for Shep is not will he play, but how much will he play? There really doesn't seem to be any way he redshirts.

2009

So LSU begins the 2009 season with: two sophomores, both with some playing time; two freshmen, one of them a superstar in waiting; and Andrew Hatch. Of those five, I think I can comfortably predict one thing. Shep will see the field. My guess is that Shep will play the pre-Heisman Tebow QB-role, using his athleticism and versatility to give opposing defenses nightmares. Or, perhaps, Shep would be a nasty slot receiver in the Percy Harvin mold.

So that leaves JJ, Lee and Garrett. How does that pan out? My guess is that JJ and Lee fight for the #1/#2 slots and Garrett redshirts. In fact, once Garrett gets a look at the crowded QB passing drills this Spring, he's going to WANT to redshirt to distance himself from Shep by a year.

But here's the wildcard.

Transfers.

Lee and JJ are both sophomores next year. With Shep in the mix, it's doubtful that Lee and JJ share time. It's far more likely that either one or the other wins the starting job and keeps it. And, since they're in the same class, one of them faces the potential of being a backup forever. Sounds familiar, right? Matt Flynn stuck it out and has a BCS championship ring to show for his patience. And a Green Bay Packers job. And it has happened many, many times before that.

But there is a difference this time. Russell Shepard. Shep will likely not threaten either JJ or Lee for the starting job at the beginning of 2009. But if he lives up to even half of his hype, it is difficult to imagine how the coaching staff would choose to continue to limit his touches in 2010 by platooning him in and out. Clearly, he looks like a sophomore starter at LSU. In fact, if JJ and Lee don't play very well next season, he may find himself starting by year's end. What does that say for JJ and Lee? As juniors, they find themselves as the #2 and #3 guys? I'm thinking not.

My guess is that either JJ or Lee will end up transfering after the Spring. Why not wait a year? Well, that's possible. But if either decides to transfer to a Div 1-A school, they'd have to sit out a year of eligibility. By waiting a year, they'd only have their senior season to play. I doubt either of these two would transfer to Div 1-AA, where they could play immediately (Ryan Perrilloux). So my guess is next year is the perfect year to go. And if one of them will transfer, it will probably be Lee. He's said publicly that he has no intention of doing so. But the situation will be clearer for everyone after the Spring Game.

IF - and it's obviously still a huge IF - either JJ or Lee transfer, then this is where Hatch reenters the picture as an important piece of the QB queue. If the QB situation is going to be Shep and either JJ or Lee, then Hatch has a place as the backup to JJ/Lee. That allows Garrett to comfortably redshirt.

Now. Add to THAT the fact that LSU is recruiting better than ever right now, and that there are some excellent high school QBs who are interested in LSU, and the QB queue just gets busier. My guess is that LSU will go after one high profile QB next year.

2010 possibles

Connor Wood

Terrance Broadway

Nick Montana

Yes. That Montana. That's just an early look, and I'd say Notre Dame probably feels pretty solid with Montana. But since Broadway is from Baton Rouge, if he has a great senior season there's a very good chance LSU lands yet another great dual-threat QB in the 2010 class.

LSU may be entering an era where QBs sign understanding that they may only get one year as the starter unless something happens to the studs in front of them - like the NFL draft or an unfortunate injury. Sounds a bit like an elite football program to me.

So. Here's what that could look like. I've put them in the order I think they're most likely to play.

2009: #1 JJ and Shep; #2 Hatch; RS Garrett; Lee transfers

2010: #1 Shep; #2 JJ (jr); #3 Garrett; RS Broadway

2011: #1 Shep (jr); #2 JJ (sr); #3 Garrett (soph); #4 Broadway

2012: Too far out. But if Shep is drafted as a Jr? Interesting.

Combine the QB outlook with LSU's other skill positions and you see why 2010 and 2011 look like very exciting years for LSU football.

It's crowded at QB this spring. I think it gets a little less crowded by the Washington game. But all in all, I see a very bright future for LSU at the QB position.

SOAPBOX: Random Thoughts

Darrington Sentimore and Barkevious Mingo

Alabama commitment Sentimore helped lead the Destrehan Wildcats to their second consecutive LHSAA 5A state championship last night, winning the MVP in the process. I listened to part of the game on WWL, and Sentimore was ALL OVER THE PLACE! Dominant is a word that fits. LSU has not yet given Sentimore an offer.

Barkevious Mingo, who LSU has offered, was on the losing side of that game. I heard his name a few times as well, but he was nowhere near as dominant as Sentimore was.

The question is: will LSU finally offer Sentimore a scholarship? With defensive linemen being a clear need in this class, the lack of an LSU offer points clearly to some kind of off-field issues with Sentimore - grades or something else.

I think if LSU offers, Sentimore drops Bama like a hot rock.

Miles and some of his coaches were at the Superdome last night, I'm told. After an MVP performance, if Sentimore does not garner an offer, then clearly his off-field issues are pretty significant and maybe he won't really be playing for Alabama either come the fall.

Defensive Coordinator

Apparently, there are no changes to the football coaching staff on the immediate horizon. While I'm as frustrated as any LSU fan, I get it (I think). First of all, I don't think Coach Miles will be "firing" anyone. That much is pretty clear. He's likely going to shuffle some coaches, and I think there's every indication that two coaches (Peveto and Lane) may be getting offers to move up to "better" coaching jobs in the near future. Secondly, I think Miles has a hiring in mind, but it's likely that coach isn't done with their season, either. So Miles is waiting that out as well. Third, there's the recruiting effort going on right now. Specifically, Coach Peveto is a good recruiter so Miles has him on the road and solidifying some great recruits for the Tigers. Fourth, there's the Ga Tech game on New Year's Eve. If the staff can stay in place and focused, then LSU has a reasonable chance of a good showing against a very powerful Ga Tech running game. A new DC with a new scheme and only two weeks to put it in place would probably be a bowl disaster.

So, I'm keeping the faith and remaining patiently hopeful. One thing is certain - if LSU doesn't make any changes to the co-DC fiasco from last year, Miles is risking his standing with the LSU faithful, probably including the more influential boosters. Which is why I'm almost positive there's change a-comin.

Football Recruiting

LSU will likely sign the best football recruiting class in school history this February. There's also a chance that it will be the best football recruiting class in the country. And that's saying something considering LSU's recruiting success in recent years, and the quality of the recruiting classes at USC, Texas, and Ohio State.

It's possible that LSU could sign as many as 8 five-star athletes. The Tigers already have three committed (QB Shepard, DB Jackson, and DL Davenport). Five-stars Loston (safety) and DeBose (WR) are probable LSU commits, which brings the total to 5. Reuben Randle - the #1 recruit in the nation according to Rivals, is a real possibility as well, which would be 6. Michael Ford, the state's leading RB and a current LSU commit, could very well get a fifth star, bringing the total to 7. Finally, DeAngelo Benton, a WR commit from last year that could not make the grades to join the team, has apparently completed the required school work. If Benton joins the squad, then he'll likely do so as a five star, and that's 8.

Probable? No. Possible? Absolutely. And this doesn't count some other February surprises, like stealing McFarland from Texas/OU, or landing LB Jelani Jenkins or DT William Campbell. None of these are strong possibilities. But none of them are committed anywhere yet, either. And success in recruiting has a way of breeding further success.

But maybe the biggest positive for this recruiting class is that, below all the stellar prospects, there are some guys who just might be severely underrated and will surprise big time once at LSU. The poster child for this expectation is Morris Claiborne, a 2-star athlete (QB in high school) whose video is very, very impressive. The kid plays at a small school and just didn't make the recruiting services' radar. Another LSU recruit who has the ability to surprise is 3-star QB Chris Garrett from Tupelo, MS. He had a great senior season, has a powerful arm and is a great pro-style QB. A lot will depend on Crowton's schemes at LSU and the way the team uses Russell Shepard in the future.

Bottom line: if you haven't read up on this recruiting class, you should. It's going to be fun to watch them progress. Rivals and Scout offer some free access to news and message boards. ESPN's recruiting site is completely free, but not as good as the first two in my opinion. If I had to pick a site, I'd pick Scout simply because, although Rivals site has a better layout, Scout's writing staff seems to be a step ahead most of the time.

Basketball Crushes Grambling

Trent Johnson's Tigers are still undefeated this year after demolishing Grambling 87-41. Granted, the Tigers haven't really played anyone yet. But a 46-point win is impressive nonetheless. Now, consider that the leading LSU scorer was Marcus Thornton with only 18 points. And ten LSU players had 13 minutes or more of playing time, none over 22 minutes. The bench performed very, very well. And obviously Coach Johnson's emphasis on defense is paying dividends. Next up Nicholls State, then Texas A&M on the road. We'll see, we'll see.

SOAPBOX: A Fitting End. Can We Just Say No to the Chic-fil-A Bowl?

Fortunately for me, I was all but apathetic about the LSU-Arkansas game on Friday. After getting spanked by Ole Miss, the Tigers were headed to a disappointing bowl appearance, regardless of the outcome in Arkansas.

So, while I watched the entire game, and got a little excited when the Tigers actually started playing football in the second quarter, I mostly just quietly gritted my teeth for three hours.

LSU is a better football team than that putrid performance. I still believe that. I just can't prove it. Not after the last few weeks.

Porous defense, undisciplined play, terrible play calling, a freshman QB in his first start, a struggling running game, an penalties. All LSU lacked was a few ill-timed turnovers to make the tragedy more complete.

Ah, well. Thus ends the 2008 season - and it may just be fitting. The team has been leaderless all year long, and that, in my mind, is the "why" in all of this. No on-field leadership.

There are coaching problems. There are QB and secondary problems. There have been injuries.

But the critical facet of last year's team, who had all of that to deal with and more (except maybe coaching), was the outstanding leadership of Dorsey, Hester, Flynn, and others. That has been missing this year.

Yes, Arkansas made some critical plays at the right time. But this LSU team should not have let that Arkansas team - particularly with thier injuries - even sniff an opportunity to win.

This team remains rudderless. Especially on defense.

And that leads me to this. Could LSU turn down the bowl game and just let this season go away? I know the Tigers and Les Miles would NEVER do that, particularly because of the senior class. But, really, do any of you want to risk watching LSU get blown out by some crappy ACC team?

Personally, I've had enough. I'd be happy to turn to basketball and start getting ready for baseball and the Spring football game.

It's sour grapes. I admit it. And I know better. I should have more perspective. But, even though I did not in any way expect this season to be a repeat of 2007, I certainly didn't expect LSU to go 3-5 in SEC play. And struggle with Troy. And lose to Ole Miss. And lose to Arkansas. So, although my brain says I'm being childish, my heart is calling for the pain to stop.

Whatever. The game will be played. And I will watch. But that familiar pre-game anticipation won't be there, replaced instead with something very, very close to apathy. But not quite.

Geaux Tigers. I guess.

Non-Soapbox Acknowledgement of Ass-Kicking

Sorry folks. This past 3 months has been a bit busy in my real life.

Ole Miss pwn3d LSU. Really, is there much more to say? It wasn't even close. With or without Jarrett Lee. Regardless of penalties, and turnovers, and anything else.

Ole Miss is a better football TEAM than LSU.

Now. Let's also get a bit real, here. LSU is not a 3-4 SEC TEAM. We have a 3-4 SEC quarterback situation. We're a 5-2 SEC team, considering how unimpressive our defense has been. But with reasonable quarterback play, we beat Ole Miss and Bama no problem.

But does any of that matter at all? Of course not.

Ole Miss and Bama beat LSU in Tiger Stadium. Enough said.

Is Bama the #1 team in the nation? Of course not. Florida will settle that in Atlanta. It's not even close. But it would be foolish to short change the transition in Bama football and the resurgence of that program.

Is Florida the #1 team in the nation? I can't imagine anyone else who will beat them.

As far as the Arkansas game, I honestly could not care less at this point. I'm going to watch, and I'm going to root for my Tigers. But nothing will surpass the disappointment of last Saturday night. So a bowl is a bowl at this point. I'm already looking forward to the Spring Game.

And baseball season.

SOAPBOX: Resurrection Edition

I'm not dead - just busy. It's been a busy month. Thanks to Joshua for single-handedly keeping the blog living and breathing. I'm not sure I'm back in full swing, but I'm back at least a little. We shall see.

LSU 40, Troy 31: A win is a win is a win.

Seriously? LSU struggled to beat Troy? Again? Just like in 2004?

Yep.

Why LSU Struggled to Win

Coaching. Les Miles himself started his post-game press conference saying he was to blame for the way the game started. He said the coaches hand-cuffed the offense in a failed effort to reduce the chances that Lee would do exactly what he ended up doing anyway. So Troy knew they were going to run a lot and put 9 in the box. Troy, on the other hand, had an outstanding gameplan to negate LSU's personnel overmatch and play to their own capabilities. LSU's coaches were playing, at least initially, not to lose and Troy's coaches were playing to win. When the offense opened up and the defense stopped being so predictable with blitzes, the game changed. Of course, that's when Troy stopped playing near-perfect football. Which also helped.

QB. Jarrett Lee was atrocious in the first half. Jordan Jefferson wasn't much better. On the other side of the field, Troy's QB (Levi Brown) played amazing football for a half. Where Lee and Jefferson were unpoised, threw poor pass after poor pass, and failed to instill any confidence in their teammates, Brown played like he's destined for NFL success. He threaded the needle time after time, throwing extremely quickly. He didn't miss many of him many, many throws (72). In fact, I'd guess that half of his incompletions were dropped-balls by his receivers. LSU QBs were victims of drops as well. Just not as many.

Emotion. Troy had it, LSU had to find it. Troy entered the game knowing they had a chance to upset a struggling LSU team fresh from elimination from any SEC title hopes. LSU, clearly, had not yet embraced it's new season post Alabama by kickoff. The Tigers were flat. Troy is not an SEC caliber football team. But they are far too good and too well coached to be taken lightly. I don't know that LSU actually took them lightly on purpose. But the first half was emotionally flat.

Why LSU Won

Jarrett Lee. LSU's young QB is the poster-child of this season. Talented but inconsistent. And a bit of a head case. But the key is: he's talented. Maybe just as important - Lee has guts. The booing alone after bad throws could have ruined the kid for the rest of the season. But he pulled himself up by his jock-strap in second half after it became clear that Jordan Jefferson was doing fine but not good enough to lead a comeback. Lee put his SEVENTH pick six behind him and started looking more like Matt Flynn than - well - himself (early vintage).


Let's get this clear. Without Jarrett Lee making a personal comeback, LSU does not make a team comeback. Jarrett Lee, after struggling, won the game for LSU.

Defense. LSU's defense took far too long to wake up and adjust to the Troy passing game. But adjust they did. Even in the first half, Troy started having difficulty moving the football. In fact, if Lee doesn't throw the pick-six late in the second quarter, I think the game was close to turning around right there - all on the shoulders of the LSU defense.

LSU had decent pressure on the QB most of the game, and the yardage after catch for the Trojans was fairly low - because LSU was playing good defense. The problem in the first half was that Troy's QB was having an amazing game throwing the football. When he proved to be fallible, LSU's defense started stopping him.

Without LSU's defense sticking with it and playing strong the entire game, Jarrett Lee does not get the chance to lead the comeback.

Other observations for the future.

Big Man Depth Chart. LSU QBs had a lot of time to throw last night. And the offensive line does not rotate personnel often. With the departure of Helms and Johnson, critical jack-of-all-trades Miller, and maybe even Ciron Black, the O-line will be a huge point of interest next season. There's a lot of talent in the backups, and LSU has recruited well this year on the O-line, but all that talent has very little experience. Although the D-line rotates more than the O-line, the same concern applies. Jackson, Favorite, Alexander, Pittman, Tremaine Johnson - are all gone. Drake Nevis has seen some time, as have Pep Levingston and Al Woods. And Ricky Jean-Francois will likely be back next year after what so far has been a disappointing season for him. The D-line is in better shape in terms of experience. But the depth that has made them formidable in the past may not be there next year with so many underclassmen behind the returning experience. Again - we'll see.

Defensive Backfield. Chad Jones was all over the field last night, and may have finally had a chance to showcase in public why the coaches talk about him in reverent tones in press interviews. Patrick Peterson, Phelon Jones, Karnell Hatcher, and Brandon Taylor are all young backs getting a lot of playing time and holding their own. Even though LSU's pass defense suffered this year, I'm feeling a very, very stingy LSU defensive backfield in the making for a long time. Add Craig Loston at safety after this year's recruiting class. Awesome.

Rest of the season.

Difficult. Ole Miss beat Florida and spanked UL-Monroe on Saturday, a team that beat Troy 31-30. Ole Miss is going to require LSU to play some strong football. A slow start next week could be insurmountable against Ole Miss. Then Arkansas will be looking to play it's bowl game on national TV the day after Thanksgiving. Arkansas is struggling, but they remain dangerous, with a competent coach.

I think LSU ends the season 9-3, heads to a New Year's Day bowl, and gets a chance to ice the season with a sweet victory against a great non-conference opponent. Nothing in the road ahead will be easy. But it will be fun to watch.