Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Recipe to Beat Bama: Ingredient Three

The first ingredient was: 2nd and 6 or Less.

The second ingredient was: 200+ and 2:1.

The third ingredient is:  Win the Turnover War.

It's going to be very difficult for LSU to find the endzone Saturday.  It will be even tougher if the Tigers give up the football more than the Tide.  Not only will turnovers negate opportunities for LSU to score, but they will in many cases put Bama in great field position.  

Currently the Tigers are +9 in turnover ratio, leading the SEC.  Alabama is +7, which is good for 3rd.  In raw numbers, the Tigers and Tide both have 16 takeaways, but LSU has only turned the ball over 7 times to Bama's 9.  The difference there is in fumbles lost, where LSU has for a long time been very, very stingy.

Statistically, not much there. 

About all LSU can do is continue to not turn the ball over. 

That, and put tons of pressure on McElroy so that he throws a couple of picks.  Pressure on the QB has not been the Tigers' strong suit this season.  While LSU is dead last in sacks, Alabama is first in the SEC in sacks against.  Not a comforting statistic if we're hoping to pressure Bama's QB.

If the Tigers lose the turnover battle to Bama, it will be next to impossible to win the game. 

If the Tigers win the turnover battle, they will have an opportunity to score touchdowns (probably) and burn clock. 

This ingredient will require a lot of luck.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Don't be rude. Or I will delete your comment. Questions?