SNAP JUDGEMENTS: Florida 13, LSU 3

What a painful football game to watch.  Florida dominated LSU and the game wasn't anywhere near as close as the score.  Nothing has changed for the Tigers.  So this one is ridiculously easy to analyze.

DEFENSE

• LSU's defense bends but doesn't break.  The Tigers held the Gators to 327 total yards and 13 points. But the Gators only punted once.  And they dominated the time of possession by 13 minutes.  Thats, like, a lot.
• LSU's weakness on defense continues to be the defensive line.  No sacks. 

OFFENSE

• I'm going to say it.  Jordan Jefferson is not a good QB at this point.  He has a glaring weakness and teams will continue to exploit it - he has horrible downfield vision and timing.  LSU will not beat Alabama and may not beat Auburn, Ole Miss and Arkansas unless Jefferson steps up his game.  Half of his sacks were his fault - he just does not see the receivers getting open and holds the ball too long.
• The Tiger offensive line continues to be average.  But I'm done complaining about them because, other than the penalties early in the game, they played well considering Florida's defensive line and Jefferson's inability to get rid of the football.
• If Jefferson can't throw, defenses will continue to stack the box and Charles Scott will continue to have a frustrating senior season.
• Too many dropped passes.  And Jefferson continues to throw behind and too high.  And WTF with not finding Dickson more often?

SPECIAL TEAMS

• Still solid. Good kick coverage and kickoffs, and besides Helton's ridiculous shank punt, the punting was good as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS

1. Florida may not be good enough to beat Alabama.  I think Bama has a better offense and as good a defense.
2. LSU better find a QB between now and next season if there is any hope of competing for championships next year.  Jordan Jefferson is not that guy right now.  He's still playing high school football.  That ain't gonna cut it.  If he doesn't improve, he may find himself with stiff competition for the starting job next year.  Hell, at this point, he may need some serious competition THIS year.  NOT throwing interceptions and pick-sixes is NOT the measure of a good QB.
3. LSU's all-star secondary is not getting any help from LSU's hapless pass rush.  Something needs to happen there. 

Early Impressions Around the Internets...

Since the game was so late, there's not a lot worth quoting out there.  Here are a couple of tidbits.

Randy Rosetta, The Advocate:

Sparked by quarterback Jake Locker’s 321-yard passing night and Chris Polk’s 90 yards rushing, Washington dissected the defense for 478 total yards — more than they allowed in any game a year ago.

Wow.  Just, wow.  That's more than Florida and Georgia, who put up over 50 points on LSU and the co-coordinator system.  Thanks for the perspective, Randy.  Ouch.

Bob Condotta, Seattle Times:

The Washington Huskies have come a long way under new coach Steve Sarkisian.


That was evident in the glorious first few minutes of their season opener Saturday night against Louisiana State.

Richard Pittman, ATVS

Jordan Jefferson had a pretty nice night. He started 1 for 6 but after that went 10 for 13 with 3 touchdowns and zero INTs. He was also effective with his legs and had an ATVSQBPI of 10.2 yards per play

 I agree - statistically, Jefferson did fine.  (ATVSQBPI is Pittman's own QB rating formula).  Subjectively, he looked like the young sophomore with minimal experience that he is.  Folks will take solace that he doesn't throw interceptions (because that's the best way to compare him to Lee).  Personally, I want to see Jefferson taking some chances, standing in the pocket longer, and firing to Lafell and Toliver at a more frequent clip.  He should be comfortable doing that by Georgia.

John Berkowitz, UW Dog Pound

The difference in this one was big plays and penalties. The Pac 10 refs did their best SEC imitiation by questionably penalizing the Huskies for 11 penalties for 85 yards in comparison to 3 for 35 for the Tigers. The ofifciating (sic) as usual in the Pac 10 was bad and had a anti UW slant.

Well, from a different perspective, LSU was being held flagrantly all night long, and I don't remember a single holding penalty against UW.  I will agree that the officiating was shoddy.  Biased against UW?  Maybe LSU is just more disciplined at this stage of the season.

Here's a YouTube vid of the last two drives - sorta painful to watch Washington just waltz down the field on the LSU defense in the last 2 mins of the game.

DISAPPOINTING WIN: LSU 31, Washington 23

I don't want to overreact.  A win is a win, especially on the road against a BCS school with a proud heritage and something to prove.  But there are some clear reasons to be disappointed in this win.  In my opinion, LSU's performance tonight raised more questions than it answered. 

(DISCLAIMER:  I'm not discounting that Washington is probably a better team than some expected them to be.  But I don't think they'll be in the top half of the Pac-10 this year, so I'm going to assume they're close enough to expectations for the season - improved, but not awesome.)

But first, just to stay positive, let's give a couple of answers to questions.  The first one is, "Will Terrance Toliver have a breakout season?"  I think the answer is yes.  He led all receivers in the game with 117 yards and 2 TDs on 4 catches.  Most impressively, Toliver's yards after catch (I don't have the number) were very good.  Teams now have to honor Toliver (not that they weren't aware of him before), watch Lafell, and there more arrows in the quiver that were not revealed tonight.

Another question that seems to at least be trending to an acceptable answer is, "Will LSU be able to return to the 2007 level of advantageous turnover ratio?"  LSU had one fumble (Charles Scott) that was just barely a fumble (last minute strip), but a fumble nonetheless.  Conversely, the Tigers got a pick-six and a fumble recovery.  That's a nice change of pace from last year, and I'll just leave that right where it is.

I think that's about all I can say positively about tonight's game.  There are a lot of questions, but let's just choose 5 for now.

1.  "Is John Chavis really a great Defensive Coordinator?" I don't know.  But, if you read the press and message boards about Chavis' hire, you'd think this couldn't possibly be a serious question.  He has been hailed as the savior of LSU defenses.  The genius who will bring LSU back to national defensive prowess.  Yet his defense just gave up 478 yards and 23 points to a team with a patchwork offensive line.  Yep - 478 yards.  25 first downs.  And LOTS of big plays given up.  LSU's vaunted secondary, the one that Coach Miles says has 3 future NFL first rounders in it, just gave up 320 yards passing.   Dayum.  Yes, Jake Locker is a pretty good QB.  "320 yards and 2 TDs against future NFL first round draft picks" good?  Personally - I don't think so.   Anyway - this is a big, fat, nasty open question as of right now.  If LSU cannot rush the passer, we, as LSU fans, are in for a long, disappointing year.  I know this because I lived it last year.  And if we repeat last year, then tell me why Mallory and Peveto got such a bad rap again?

2.  "Is LSU's offensive line going to be able to handle SEC play?"  Again, I thought the only question was at center.  But Washington's DL held LSU's awesome RB stable to less than 150 yards rushing.  And Jefferson had very few opportunities to check down and choose receivers unmolested.  I know Washington has a couple of really good DLinemen.  But so does every SEC team, and some non-SEC teams, on the LSU schedule.  This is another very troubling question.

3.  "Does the coaching staff trust Jordan Jefferson?"  I was very surprised at the lack of balance in the play calling.  Consequently I was also suprised at how predictable and vanilla the offense was.  Call me crazy (go ahead, I'll wait........thanks, you may be right), but when you're averaging 16.5 yards per reception against a team that has a very young, very weak secondary, then shouldn't you target that youth/weakness a bit more?  Yet the pass to run ratio was 19/29.   And Jefferson did not attempt many throws over the middle (but when he did (and completed them) they went for big gains).  So, I'm wondering if the coaches are just afraid to turn Jefferson into the next Lee by asking too much of him too early?  Maybe.  Is that a good call - being that risk averse I mean?  We'll call that Question 3b.

4.  "Was this game indicative of our special teams this year, or an aberration?"  Kick returns were pedestrian at less than 6 yards per.  Only one punt returned (not a great sign for the defense), and it was only 9 yards.  And Derek Helton's inaugural punting stint ended with a 32 yard average and a long of 38 yards.  I don't care how good his hang time is. 

5.  Finally - "Is Jordan Jefferson going to last the season?"  By this question, I mean two things.  First, he took some hard shots today.  It's not that he's not tough, it's just that he's tall and not stocky and seems to not mind sacrificing himself for an extra yard.  He got rocked twice tonight, and I don't think he'll be able to withstand that all season long.  Second, he really looked wide-eyed and awkward throwing the football tonight.  He made some good decisions regards throwing the ball away, but he also nearly got a couple of forced throws picked.  End of the day, lot's of balls thrown behind or in inconvenient places for the receivers.  So, I'm wondering if he can become the solid passing threat that any contemporary offense needs their QB to be?  He just did not pass the eye test throwing the ball tonight.

These five are not comforting questions, and there are more to be asked and answered.

I'm relieved the Tigers got the win.  But (and maybe it's just me) it sorta feels like a tie.  Like, we didn't lose - but we didn't really have a great result either.

I am actually concerned enough about the Vandy game now that I'm going to spend some time getting to know the Commodores in more detail. 

Just to close on a positive note - Josh Downs, from what I could tell, looked like a man out there on the defensive line in the second half.  Amazing that he's a true freshman.  He's going to be a Glenn Dorsey kinda guy, and it may not take him all that long to get there.

Tigers Win: 41-13

I'll have more detailed stuff in the Sunday Soapbox, but here's my initial breakdown.

OFFENSE

Charles Scott had a fantastic day and Keiland Williams did not. I wish I had seen more of Richard Murphy, and Stevan Ridley caught my attention - he looks good.

The QB situation is still unresolved, to be generous. Overall, I liked Hatch's play better than Lee's, and not just because Lee threw the interception. Hatch was more poised and didn't stare his receivers down as much as Lee. Some folks seem disturbed by Hatch's arm strength - and certainly he doesn't have a cannon. But I think this topic is being oversold a bit. Hatch can hit receivers out at 20-25 yards with enough authority to keep the secondary honest. That's all LSU will need.

Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd were great, as expected. Next week, watch them block. These fellas are complete receivers.

The OL was phenomenal - allowed one sack and opened huge holes. If the Tigers had elected to run between the tackles more, Scott could've had 250 yards on the day.

Richard Dickson is going to be an LSU fan favorite this year.

DEFENSE

The DLine had a decent day, allowed only 60 yards rushing or so. Considering how elusive App State's backfield can be, that's a really good result. Only 3 sacks, though. But, again, Edwards is a bitch to tackle - I don't imagine he'll be sacked much this year by anyone.

LB play seemed very good to me, but the corners and safeties had some communication breakdowns that resulted in big plays for the Mountaineers. Expect this to get fixed very quickly. Patrick Peterson made his debut and was noticeable.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Punt returns were much better, with Chad Jones actually getting some yardage on two of his attempts. He bobbled one just a little, but otherwise was great. LSU was perfect on FG and extra points.

Otherwise, special teams were a little scary. Kickoff coverage was good (Ryan Baker made himself known), but the kicks themselves were very short. Punting continues to be just as heinous as it was in the Spring Game. Dalfrey was inconsistent and actually had a 14 yarder.

There are a lot of young guys on special teams, but if the punting game doesn't improve, LSU will lose a game because of it. You can take that to the bank.

OVERALL

Solid first game. Absolutely dominant in the first half, flat and struggling with tons of reserves playing in the second half. Nothing to worry about. If the Tigers stay healthy and Hatch protects the ball and can throw 20-25 yard strikes, then LSU will be better than most pundits think.

I'm pleased about everything but the punting team. Horrid.

All's Well That Ends Well: Tigers Win 58-10

Rockin' start, followed by "what the hell is going on", followed by "OK, that's better", followed by "think we'll get 70?".

More tomorrow, but I'd like to thank the Tigers for making my 55-10 prediction look prophetic.

SEC West Champs!

Shoe in for #1 across the polls (OSU got Zooked!).

All's well that ends well.

Holy Crap, Y'all!

The Cardiac Cats do it again!

I had to attend the NAS Pensacola Marine Corps Ball (Happy 232nd Birthday, Jarheads! You don't look a day over 40) so I only watched the first quarter and the last 5 minutes. But that's all I needed. I've got it on TiVo, so I'm off to watch that in a minute.

But the stats say it all. LSU dominated this game but for penalties and 3 interceptions. The Tigers very nearly beat themselves - again. I'm sure the coaching staff will have a lot to say about that tomorrow in the film review.

At the risk of patting myself on the back, I think I got this one right. The key to success was getting to Wilson, which the Tigers most definitely did - I think he was sacked 7 times. And I believe I also said we'd blow them out if we could keep the penalties low and the turnover ratio in our favor. Well, had we done that, it would have been close to my 41-17 prediction. We did get the 41! I also called the punt return for a TD thing. So ducky for me, I guess.

It was ugly, it was exciting, it was a big, fat, stinking WIN!

More tomorrow after I actually force myself to watch 14 penalties and 3 interceptions....on purpose. At least I know what the outcome is, so I won't throw anything at the TV (probably).

Post Game Analysis

Well, I said I'd post a deeper analysis. However, after studying the game a bit, I don't think there's much more to say. The "defense was in command", and I think they're also extremely deep in talent. That bodes well for the rest of the year, regardless of who the Tigers face. The offensive line has to improve if Flynn is to have time to throw the ball and the tailbacks are to have a chance to break out. To this point, Dandy Don adds:

It appeared to me that Carnall Stewart was beaten on a few plays and he had a couple of false start penalties called against him. Stewart was starting his first game and will get better as the season goes.

I think he's being generous. Don is a gentleman. Flynn was sacked at least four times that I remember, and rushed quite a bit more. VT is going to be much better than MSU, so there's some doubt in my mind at this point about LSU's chances of putting up a lot of points next weekend.

Special teams played well. The new kickoff rules seemed not to come into play, other than an extra four or five yards of field position for MSU after LSU scores. Punt and kickoff coverage seemed pretty good and, as the ESPN broadcast team said repeatedly, LSU is fast.

So, not much else to dive into. MSU never had a prayer, so drawing too many conclusions from this game would be a mistake. Their QB, Henig, had a very bad night and LSU's defense had a lot to do with that. Coach Miles has a ton of talent on his hands and a few serious challenges to keep him busy. The first serious challenge to national championship hopes comes next Sat in the form of a very talented and possibly underrated Virginia Tech team. The Tigers don't have much time to improve the offensive line. And VT's defense will probably be one of the best in the nation this year.

Fantastic start for the Tigers. Overconfidence would be a mistake, but I don't think that's a problem with a legitimate threat coming to Tiger Stadium next week. Bring it on!