KNEE JERK REACTION: WTF Was That?

What a confusing, disappointing game from start to finish.  LSU looked awful most of the game.  Ole Miss owned the stat sheet.  Dexter McCluster had his way with the LSU defense.  And yet LSU could have won the football game.   It's hard to describe to someone who didn't watch the game how unlikely an LSU win would've been.  And yet they almost did win.  You, know.  Except for the WTF moment at the end.

Non-Soapbox Acknowledgement of Ass-Kicking

Sorry folks. This past 3 months has been a bit busy in my real life.

Ole Miss pwn3d LSU. Really, is there much more to say? It wasn't even close. With or without Jarrett Lee. Regardless of penalties, and turnovers, and anything else.

Ole Miss is a better football TEAM than LSU.

Now. Let's also get a bit real, here. LSU is not a 3-4 SEC TEAM. We have a 3-4 SEC quarterback situation. We're a 5-2 SEC team, considering how unimpressive our defense has been. But with reasonable quarterback play, we beat Ole Miss and Bama no problem.

But does any of that matter at all? Of course not.

Ole Miss and Bama beat LSU in Tiger Stadium. Enough said.

Is Bama the #1 team in the nation? Of course not. Florida will settle that in Atlanta. It's not even close. But it would be foolish to short change the transition in Bama football and the resurgence of that program.

Is Florida the #1 team in the nation? I can't imagine anyone else who will beat them.

As far as the Arkansas game, I honestly could not care less at this point. I'm going to watch, and I'm going to root for my Tigers. But nothing will surpass the disappointment of last Saturday night. So a bowl is a bowl at this point. I'm already looking forward to the Spring Game.

And baseball season.

Ole Miss @ LSU: Pick 'em

Odds makers have this one as LSU by between 3.5 to 4.5.

That means, minus the homefield advantage, this game is a toss-up in their eyes. They don't make a living getting that kind of thing wrong. If I were a betting man, I'd sit this one out.

But I don't need some Vegas numbers guy to tell me this game has all the potential to be a nail-biter. Here's all you need to know: LSU is a talent-rich team struggling with young QBs and an underperforming defense; Ole Miss is at the apogee of the Orgeron recruiting classes and has a good (if slightly nutty - pun intended) coach and all the confidence in the world.

This game is NOT going to be boring. This I would place money on. In Kirston Pittman's 6-year LSU football career, the scores have been 17-14 (LSU), 27-24 (LSU), 40-7 (LSU), 23-20 OT (LSU), and 41-24 (LSU). Of the two lopsided wins, the first was thanks to an absolutely dominant LSU defense, and the second was a bit closer than the score thanks to - in contrast - a floundering LSU defense that gave up 466 yards of offense but made big turnovers happen when they needed them.

I'd do a detailed matchup comparison for this game, but it's fruitless (and I'm - ahem - busy). Both teams, honestly, are talented enough everywhere on the field (and unpredictable enough as well) to beat the other team.

Here's what I will say.

Jevan Sneed > Jarrett Lee
Ole Miss O-Line = LSU D-Line
LSU O-Line > Ole Miss D-Line
Everyone's Special teams >> LSU Special Teams (minus Colt David)
LSU Playmakers > Ole Miss Playmakers (just barely, and maybe homerish)

Key matchup? On both sides, the QB versus the second level defense. Whoever wins that, wins the game.

Doesn't make you feel very confident, does it? Well, here's some things to hope for.

Jarrett Lee is (hopefully) exiting the darkness and entering the light. After the hell that was the first 38 minutes of the Troy game, he and the coaches now know that he's got the talent and the gonads to come right back from stupid mistakes to cram it down the defense's throats. Lord knows he's got the talent around him to help him do it.

LSU has yet to put a complete football game together this season - not even close. This may (hopefully) be that game.

The emotion will (hopefully) be on LSU's side. Particularly on defense, there are a lot of seniors playing their last game in Tiger Stadium. They'll be looking to exit the stage having handed Ole Miss an ass kicking. And the fans are going to start drinkin' Friday night for this one. So you know they'll be fired up.

O-line is healthy. D-line is healthy. Hell, everyone but Hatch is healthy. Hopefully, that will pay huge dividends in the fourth quarter again.

LSU is (hopefully) positioned for the Cotton Bowl and the team won't want to lose that opportunity for something on the 2008 side of New Years Day.

The seniors have (hopefully) had enough of losing, thank you very much, for one season. No one on this team - not even Kirston Pittman - has lost more than 3 games in a season as a Tiger. Pretty cool.

So, be hopeful. Odds are this is going to be a close one. I say Vegas is right and the home field advantage carries the day.

Speaking of Upsets: Rebs Spank Some Gator

What happens to a team if:

1. Their quarterback goes 9 for 20 with one interception, and
2. They only get 10 first downs to the other team's 24, and
3. They commit 10 penalties for 70 yards - twice the opponent's total, and
4. They go 5 for 15 on 3rd down conversions?

What happens is that team beats Florida!

Statistically, Florida owned Ole Miss in almost every category. But, as the saying goes, that's why they play the game. Ole Miss beat Florida by taking advantage of turnovers, making a few big plays, blocking a PAT that would've tied the game, and then stuffing Florida in a 4th and 1 yard at the Ole Miss 32. Not sure why they didn't kick the FG at that point, but as a Les Miles constituent, I guess I really shouldn't second guess.

Brutal.

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Great Expectations

I never had one hour's happiness in [Tiger] society, and yet my mind
all round the four-and-twenty hours was harping on the happiness of [being a Tiger fan] unto death.

Charles Dickens, Great Expectations.

Sorry about that. Couldn't stop myself.

I'm sure other fan bases experience similar emotions. It can be torturous to watch the Tigers fail to play up to their potential yet play good enough to win and remain at the top of the BCS poll. I wonder - had LSU started out the season ranked #17 in the pre-season polling, would the media and the blogs and the fan forums project a different, more positive tone about the team's accomplishments?

Admitted: The defense has been challenged lately, the team has a penalty addiction, Matt Flynn has thrown a bunch of picks and has a very ho-hum 55% completion percentage (or so), and the Tigers have had to use second half play on multiple occcassions in order to fix messy first half play.

However, some perspective. LSU is the unanimous #1 [edit: LSU did not receive all number one votes, but is number 1 in each poll] in all polls for the second time this year, even though:

• LSU is playing without the services of 4 first round NFL draft picks from last year's #3 team.
• Matt Flynn only started one game going into this season.
• LSU has had some significant injuries, though some have been resolved. Dorsey is playing hurt. I bet Doucet is as well. Beckwith is out and we felt his absence against Ole Miss.
• LSU played Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky and Alabama when each team was ranked. Noone else has played a schedule like that.
• LSU's only loss came in 3 OT against Kentucky (#17 at time).

Other teams, playing lesser opponents, have fared worse.

• USC lost to unranked Stanford before losing later to Oregon.
• Ohio State (#1 at the time) was beaten by (unranked at the time) Illinois
• Oregon already had a loss to Cal when (#2 at the time) they lost this week to unranked Arizona
• Oklahoma already had a loss to unranked Colorado before they (#3 at the time) lost this week to unranked Texas Tech.

There were others, of course. The point is, as Rabalais says in his latest piece, there are worse things than "ugly" wins.

Now, I'm interested in stats. I think they provide context to what is otherwise just a record of wins and losses and final scoring totals. And the stats in this game tell an Ole Miss-hued story.

But as the season wanes, and all the games become increasingly important, stats begin to lose their luster. Even allowing the 400plus yards to Ole Miss last night, LSU still has the #2 defense in the country. So how much should we pay attention/care? I still pay attention, but I'm not sure I care anymore at this point in the season.

All I care about now is two more SEC wins. And this team has proven itself to be able to play through adversity and mistakes and straight-up buffoonery and remain in the game when other teams might have folded under the pressure.

I really don't care who LSU plays in the SEC championship game. Neither Georgia or Tennessee are as good as LSU. Both will beat LSU if LSU makes enough mistakes and doesn't play their best.

I also don't care who LSU plays if we make it to the BCS national championship game. This team is for real and has enough talent to beat any team in the country. If they play well, they win. If they don't, then any top 10 team can and likely will beat them.

So, it's in the hands of the boys in Purple and Gold (and White).

I still have Great Expectations.

LSU 41, Ole Miss 24

Well, I was wrong - and right. I knew that LSU would score at least 30 on Ole Miss, but I had no idea that Ole Miss would be able to put 466 yards of offense on the number 1 defense in the country. That was surprising.

I'll need to go back and rewatch the game because I had company over and didn't get a chance to really watch each play. But my sense is that LSU completely failed to pressure Schaeffer, and for whatever reason the Tigers just could not make the first tackle for much of the game. How many of Ole Miss' yards came from broken plays where some of the defense got caught over pursuing, and the rest of the defense just couldn't make the tackle? Hell, Schaeffer himself had almost 100 yards - we allowed him to look like Tebow.

Anyway, we did what we had to do. Ole Miss was never really threatening after the first quarter. And Trindon Holliday answered Ole Miss' punt return for a touchdown with a kickoff return of his own.

Overall, a sloppy game filled with penalties and a defense that for some reason could not control the line of scrimmage.

More tomorrow.

PREDICTION: LSU 48, Ole Miss 9

The line on this game is LSU by 18.5. Here's why I think this is generous for Ole Miss.

First, LSU is a frighteningly talented, battle tested and relatively healthy football team. And Ole Miss is just embattled.

Second, LSU has been tested by teams with a LOT more talent than the Rebs. And only one of those teams, led by a legitimate Heisman mentionable, could hang around long enough to pull off a 3 OT upset. Florida, Auburn and Alabama succumbed. Virginia Tech was embarrassed. Mississippi State, a team with a chance at a bowl bid, was embarrassed. Tulane and LA Tech, after burning their emotion like a chunk of phosphorus, fizzled under the pressure of LSU's depth, strength, conditioning, and pure talent.

Third, IF Ole Miss plays four quarters of over-the-top football AND IF LSU can't find it's collective ass with both hands, then the game will be A LOT CLOSER than 18 points. However, if EITHER of those two things do not occur, then LSU will beat Ole Miss by more than 3 touchdowns. If LSU plays close to their potential and Ole Miss can't sustain an out-of-body level of performance for more than a half, then LSU will achieve my predicted victory, winning in a runaway.

Many folks on the internet blogs and fan forums are keying on the fact that Ole Miss considers this game their season defining moment. So they're giving them points for emotion. Then they're giving them points for being the home team. Then they're giving them points based on previous years' performances, where the Rebs kept the game close and scary for the Tigers. I say - SO WHAT! LSU has been highly ranked ALL YEAR LONG. Almost EVERY GAME this season has been THE BIG GAME for LSU's opponents. NO ONE has overlooked the Tigers this season.

Ole Miss won't hold LSU's very potent offense to less than 30 points. Ole Miss won't score more than 10 points on LSU's defense. Ole Miss' only hope is special teams play and interceptions, and I guarantee that was a huge focus for LSU this week.

In short, stand by for an emotional, crack-fueled Rebel rage fest in the first quarter, followed by a steady Tiger beat-down in the second quarter. Then, LSU opens up a gaping chest wound on the Rebs in the third quarter, and Ryan Perrilloux plays all of the fourth, has a great game, and pulls the plug.

Orgeron will learn: Fear the Hat!

Ole Miss: Stand By for a Tiger Rout

I've made a decision about Ole Miss' chances of upsetting LSU on Saturday. I've decided to scoff.

SCOFF!

SCOFF, SCOFF, SCOFF!

I scoff at you, Ole Miss, and your 3-7 season and your NADA wins in the SEC and your "scrappy" play. You're not scrappy - you're CRAPPY!

And I scoff, not WITH you, but AT you.

I know, I know. Dandy Don is concerned. The fan forums seem to think that 18 points is too many. The Rebs have had a bye week. They have nothing to lose. They will leave everything on the field. It's a natural rivalry. Yeah, yeah, yeah....SCOFF!

Why tempt fate? Because FATE has nothing to do with it. Let's ignore emotion and superstition. Let's just reason this out.

Ole Miss doesn't start a single player who could break into LSU's starting lineup. NOT ONE. Don't believe me? Let's take a look-see. (No bleeding hearts past this point - I'm scoffing! It won't be pretty.)

Quarterbacks: Seth Adams seems OK initially - 1900 yards passing at 56%. Yet, in the last three games he's about 44% with 5 interceptions, no TDs, and less than 100 y/game. Against Northwestern State - you know, the Demons, powerhouse (not) of the Southland conference - he was 7 for 15 and a pick. No TDs. 113 yards. Nicholls State beat the Demons 58-0. FIFTY-EIGHT to ZIP. Ole Miss escaped with a 38-31 homecoming (I'm guessing) victory.

Perspective: Matt Flynn's basic numbers aren't that much better on a quick look, but Flynn has thrown 9 TDs for his 6 interceptions in the last three games. Prior to that, Flynn had to play two Heisman candidates, a slew of Top-20 teams, and battle an ankle injury. And against LA Tech - a team that Northwestern State won't DARE play - he threw for 237 yards in little more than HALF a game. I'm just going to leave Ryan Perrilloux out of this discussion to spare Ole Miss the pain. Seth Adams might not even make the LSU travel team, truth be told.

Running Backs: What about the man with so much namage - BenJarvus Green-Ellis? What the hell? Is he half Roman, half British? Do men really hyphenate their names in America? Anyway. He also looks reasonable at first BlushLook View-Glance. However.... He. Is. All. They. Have. Yes, he has 992 yards on the season. The entire team has only 1175! Yes, he averages 97 ypg. The entire team averages only 117.5!

Let's put that in perspective. Jacob Hester has only 706 yards and 71 ypg. But LSU has 2221 yards and 222 ypg. See the difference? LSU has SEVEN players with over 100 yards rushing this season, including Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux! BenLucky To-Play could not play for LSU.

Receivers: Mike Wallace has a respectable 71 ypg for the Rebs. Shay Hodge has 47. They've combined for 10 TDs. I have nothing snarky to say about that.

Perspective: None of LSU's receivers have 71 ypg. But three have over 50 ypg. And Doucet was out for a large chunk of the HEART of our SEC play. Neither Wallace or Hodge would likely play for LSU.

Offensive Line: Difficult to say, but I'm scoffing, so I'll say anyway. Ole Miss has given up 26 sacks this year. LSU 24. Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. Seriously - I have no idea, but I'm guessing that one of these guys MIGHT be able to prove me wrong. I Dare Them!

Defense: Let's just cut to the chase. LSU is number 1 in total defense. Ole Miss isn't in the Top 50. LSU gives up a mere 17 ppg. Ole Miss gives up 28 ppg. Ole Miss' strongest point is it's passing game and LSU is number 1 in passing efficiency defense in the nation. Is there a guy on Ole Miss' defense that you'd trade for a guy on LSU's defense.

Uh. No.

Ole Miss and the Orgeron may have some home field mojo and some pure emotion going for them for about a quarter. After that - it's over. This game is probably more of a yawner than the LA Tech game. LA Tech probably would've beaten Ole Miss by 20 this year.

Ole Miss - I scoff in your general direction (HT: Monte Python).

Nothing like negative goals...

The rest of the season should be about spoiling our rivals seasons. We can
keep LSU out of the National Championship. We can keep Miss. St. from going
to a bowl game. So there is a lot still to play for.