Eating a Little Crow - Jefferson was Better than my Quick Thoughts

I went back and reviewed every single Jordan Jefferson pass play from the Auburn game.  I looked for Jefferson's timing and also his accuracy, catch or not.  I was impressed with what I saw, in retrospect.  And I've changed my mind on Jefferson's game.

1st Quarter

1.  Complete to K. Williams in flat for nice gain.  Throw a little late and behind.
2.  Complete to Tolliver.  Throw behind, Tolliver bobbled it but held on.
3.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Very nice pass, Tolliver was interfered with/tripped.
4.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Throw very low and behind.
5.  Incomplete to LaFell.  Throw low and behind, but LaFell should have made the catch.
6.  Complete to Tolliver - nice pass.
7.  Complete to Tolliver.  Good throw, maybe a tad late.
8.  Complete to Tolliver.  Nice pass.
9.  Complete to Lafell.  Throw was high and behind on a bubble screen.
10. Incomplete to Scott.  Scrambling and basically threw it away.
11.  Couldn't find open man - scrambled for a touchdown.

2nd Quarter

12.  Complete to Lafell.  Nice pass.
13.  Complete to Lafell.
14.  Scrambled for first down after a very deep drop.
15.  Complete to Tolliver.  Very nice throw on a comeback route.
16.  Complete to Tolliver.  Another nice throw.
17.  Complete to Lafell.  Nice screen pass.
18.  Incomplete to nobody - threw it away after scramble.
19. Complete to Tolliver. 
20.  Scramble out of bounds no gain.
21.  Incomplete to Lafell.  Hit as he threw, way over Lafell's head.
22.  Complete to Scott on screen for no gain.
23.  Sacked after 3.5 seconds in pocket.
24.  Incomplete to Chris Mitchell.  Very short.  Hit just after he threw.
25.  Complete to Tolliver.  Nice pass.
26.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Thrown well behind.

3rd Quarter

27.  Incomplete to Lafell.  Good pass in tight situation.  Lafell dropped the ball.
28.  Complete to Holliday.  Nice pass in the only place Holliday could've caught it.
29.  Complete to Lafell for TD.  Very nice pass, taking advantage of Lafell's height advantage.
30.  Incomplete to Shepard.  He just dropped it.
31.  Complete to Randle.  Fantastic throw and catch.
32.  Negated by penalty, but good completion to Dickson.
33.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Not a good choice or pass - well covered.
34.  Incomplete to Tolliver.  Slightly late throw, Tolliver dropped it.
35.  Complete to Tolliver.

4th Quarter

36.  Complete to Chris Mitchell.  Very low pass negating possible yards after catch.
37.  Complete to D. Peterson.  Good pass.
38.  Complete to Holliday.
39.  Sacked from a blitz.

Dear Jordan Jefferson,


     How are you?  I hope you didn't take too big of a hit on that last play.  Anyway, just wanted to tell you that I was completely wrong about your performance against Auburn.  I thought you were just sorta OK.  Turns out, you had a very nice game and executed the gameplan that was given to you very, very well.


     I'm particularly impressed with your ability to run yourself out of trouble most of the time.  And that fumble was clearly just "one of those things" and not reflective of your attention to preventing turnovers.


     One thing I noticed:  you threw to Tolliver 14 times, but only threw to Dickson once.  Wazzup with that?  I'm sure there's a good explanation.


     While I'd still like to see more throws 25 yards or so over the middle, I think the offensive line is giving you time.  So, eventually, we're going to see the long stuff.  With that in mind, I'm going to have a little crow for dinner tonight and call it good.


     Have a great week.  And GEAUX TIGERS!


Respectfully,


Jeff

SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Quarterback Questions

First of all, I'm not whining about LSU's QB situation at all.  Jefferson, so far, has earned his spot, is leading LSU to victory, and takes care of the football generally.  But, he's also not exactly burning up the joint.  So it's interesting to me to compare the two heading into the Florida game.  Because after Florida last year, Lee went on a pick-six streak that had Tiger fans booing the young QB.

So - I'm gonna take a look at Lee and Jefferson, and throw in a little post-script about Russell Shepard.

COMPARING 2008 JARRETT LEE & 2009 JORDAN JEFFERSON

Heading into last year's matchup with Florida, redshirt freshman QB Jarrett Lee was under a lot of scrutiny.  Tiger fans were generally very unhappy, still high on BCS championship champagne from 2007.  But, statistically, Lee was having a reasonable freshman season at that point.  After 4 games, he had completed approximately 58% of his passes for 161 yards/game, 6 TDs and 3 interceptions.  Unfortunately, 1 of those picks was returned for a TD (Auburn).  Little did any of us know, there were going to be 6 more pick-sixes for Lee.

After the first five games this season, sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson heads into his matchup against Tim Tebow (maybe?) having completed 63% of his passes for 184 yards/game, 7 TDs and 2 picks. 

On the surface, those stats aren't all that different from one another.  Jefferson's numbers are slightly better than Lee's in each category. But not significantly better. 

But two distinctions leap out when comparing Jefferson and Lee. 

The first, and to me the most glaring, is expectations. 

1. Lee was leading a team that was following the 2007 national championship run.  Jefferson is following a 5 loss "disaster" season.  
2. Lee was following a 5th year senior QB.  Jefferson is following Lee's 7 pick-sixes.

The second distinction is sacks.  This time last year, Lee had been sacked one time.  Jefferson, has been sacked 13 times.  Now, the offensive line is different this year without Helms and Big Herman.  But 12 sacks different?  OK - throw out the fifth game and the SIX sacks Georgia amassed.  That still leaves 7 sacks in four games for Jefferson.  And one last year for Lee.  And Jefferson is supposed to be a mobile QB (which he decidedly is).  Lee is supposed to be a classic pocket passer.

So, why the huge increase in sacks?  Simple.  Lee is a better passing QB.  Period.  Dot.

It's OK, Rantards of the world.  Breathe.  Read it again.  Ponder it.  Because it's true. 

Go back and watch game film.  Lee is a much more polished passer.  Better throwing motion.  More accurate.  Hits far more receivers in stride.  Throws far fewer passes behind receivers.  And gets rid of the football quicker.  Lee is a better passer than Jordan Jefferson.  Jefferson's numbers are slightly better for a couple of reasons.  First, Jefferson throws A TON of short passes.  Second, Jefferson hasn't had the benefit of a healthy running attack so he's HAD to throw more.  And Lee shared time with Hatch for the first few games.  After 4 games, Lee had thrown 77 passes to Jefferson's 101.

Lee is also braver than Jefferson.  He took more chances last year.  He made more great throws.  He also overplayed his hand a lot and threw a BUNCH of interceptions, 7 of them returned for touchdowns.

So.  What am I saying?  I'm saying Jordan Jefferson is having a pretty good sophomore year as a QB.  I'm saying at this time last year, Jarrett Lee was having a pretty good freshman year as a QB.  Until Florida.

Would Lee be able to lead this LSU team to the same 5-0 record?  Obviously, there's absolutely no way to tell.  But there's at least a small chance that Lee would have better numbers this year, be more accurate, and have hit Lafell and Toliver in stride more consistently.  Or not. We'll probably never know.  But if it becomes necessary to know, I hope Lee is ready to grab the reins.  Because as crazy as this season seems, it will get crazier if Jefferson gets hurt and Lee returns to 2008 form.  Because this next fella isn't ready to take the whole shebang.

RUSSELL SHEPARD

This kid is impressive.  He hasn't really been a big factor in any games, but that's not his fault.  First of all, he's only played a few downs per game.  Secondly, the defense knows he's going to carry the ball every time he's in the game.  It's not exactly deceptive.  And yet he still gets about 7 yards per carry.  That's pretty impressive.  Imagine how effective he could be if defenses were forced to honor the pass when he's in the game.

So why not have him throw the ball?  Seems like Gary Crowton and Les Miles are missing the boat on Shepard's talent.  Nah. 

When the game is in doubt, Shep doesn't see the field.  I think it's pretty clear that Miles and Crowton are giving Shep his touches to get him seasoned, to let  him get bloodied a bit.  But it's not Shep's time yet.  The Tigers have boup coup beaucoup weapons in the arsenal. 

Still - the first time Shep throws the ball, some defense is going to be very surprised and it could be a very big play.

Perhaps that team will be Florida?  Hmmm...

Shepard Signs Letter of Intent

Depressed about 7-5? And losing to Ole Miss? And Arkansas? And the Bammers?

Watch this video once a day until the Spring Game. You'll be fine.

Seriously. Watch his throws. The fact that he's such a great runner is distracting. Watch his passing. Then imagine how Reuben Randle could possibly be considering not being this guy's primary target for three years.

This is how the West will be won.

SOAPBOX: Crowded at Quarterback?

The Peach Bowl has the potential to reveal which freshman QB has the upper hand going into the Spring. And that will be important because LSU is about to experience a log jam of talent at QB for the foreseeable future.

I made a conscious decision to leave Andrew Hatch out of most of this discussion. I guess there's a chance Hatch will make me look foolish for excluding him by playing a major role at QB next year. But I have a hard time believing that. I think Hatch played a role this year, and had a chance to grab the brass ring. It didn't work out. I think he's going to close out his time as an experienced, reliable backup. He could transfer, but he's probably tired of that. I'll get back to Hatch towards the end of this piece.

It sounds like Jefferson will start the Peach Bowl. And it appears that Lee's injury is healed and he'll be available. Both QBs are liable to see time, but it's not clear what the plan will be for rotating them in and out. What gets lost in all the conversation about these two freshmen is just that - THEY ARE FRESHMEN. Once in a very long while, a college freshman QB will have a great first season. It's no disgrace that didn't happen this year for these two men.

The challenge of matching scores with Georgia Tech will be a great competition for both of these fellas. I'm looking forward to watching them go at it. It's going to be important for one of them to separate himself going into the Spring, if he can. Because the picture gets cloudier after that.

Chris Garrett. From watching his film and reading his stats, I think Garrett might be one of the more underrated QBs in the country. He's a 3-star on Rivals and Scout. Based on his outstanding high-school career - setting school records for touchdowns, yardage and completions - the only factor keeping Garrett from a fourth star may be his mobility. He's a pocket passer. But he's a 6' 4", 222lb rifle-armed, dead-accurate pocket passer. And he's enrolling at LSU in January. And he's smart. And he has a great work ethic. While it seems likely (and rational) that Garrett will end up redshirting next year, it is by no means a lock. If he has a good game at the Junior World Championship of American Football (I had no idea that game even existed - his participation is a rumor that I cannot confirm at this point), he may get his fourth star. And that might mean he's been under-evaluated. He could push Lee and Jefferson this Spring. And he looks to be a great compliment to this next fella.

Russell Shepard. If you're reading this, I'm going to assume you know who Shep is. The LSU-related internet is awash in adoration for this kid. And he probably deserves every bit of it. He's obviously ridiculously talented, unusually mature, and he just loves the idea of playing at LSU. What's not good about that? Like Garrett, he will graduate HS early and enroll at LSU in January. Since Shep is very much a Pat White kind of QB, he's likely to play a role in the LSU offense immediately in the Spring. He's a Percy Harvinesque runner. But he also has a very good arm, tons of poise, and has both accuracy and touch. Oh. And he LOVES the leadership role. So, the question for Shep is not will he play, but how much will he play? There really doesn't seem to be any way he redshirts.

2009

So LSU begins the 2009 season with: two sophomores, both with some playing time; two freshmen, one of them a superstar in waiting; and Andrew Hatch. Of those five, I think I can comfortably predict one thing. Shep will see the field. My guess is that Shep will play the pre-Heisman Tebow QB-role, using his athleticism and versatility to give opposing defenses nightmares. Or, perhaps, Shep would be a nasty slot receiver in the Percy Harvin mold.

So that leaves JJ, Lee and Garrett. How does that pan out? My guess is that JJ and Lee fight for the #1/#2 slots and Garrett redshirts. In fact, once Garrett gets a look at the crowded QB passing drills this Spring, he's going to WANT to redshirt to distance himself from Shep by a year.

But here's the wildcard.

Transfers.

Lee and JJ are both sophomores next year. With Shep in the mix, it's doubtful that Lee and JJ share time. It's far more likely that either one or the other wins the starting job and keeps it. And, since they're in the same class, one of them faces the potential of being a backup forever. Sounds familiar, right? Matt Flynn stuck it out and has a BCS championship ring to show for his patience. And a Green Bay Packers job. And it has happened many, many times before that.

But there is a difference this time. Russell Shepard. Shep will likely not threaten either JJ or Lee for the starting job at the beginning of 2009. But if he lives up to even half of his hype, it is difficult to imagine how the coaching staff would choose to continue to limit his touches in 2010 by platooning him in and out. Clearly, he looks like a sophomore starter at LSU. In fact, if JJ and Lee don't play very well next season, he may find himself starting by year's end. What does that say for JJ and Lee? As juniors, they find themselves as the #2 and #3 guys? I'm thinking not.

My guess is that either JJ or Lee will end up transfering after the Spring. Why not wait a year? Well, that's possible. But if either decides to transfer to a Div 1-A school, they'd have to sit out a year of eligibility. By waiting a year, they'd only have their senior season to play. I doubt either of these two would transfer to Div 1-AA, where they could play immediately (Ryan Perrilloux). So my guess is next year is the perfect year to go. And if one of them will transfer, it will probably be Lee. He's said publicly that he has no intention of doing so. But the situation will be clearer for everyone after the Spring Game.

IF - and it's obviously still a huge IF - either JJ or Lee transfer, then this is where Hatch reenters the picture as an important piece of the QB queue. If the QB situation is going to be Shep and either JJ or Lee, then Hatch has a place as the backup to JJ/Lee. That allows Garrett to comfortably redshirt.

Now. Add to THAT the fact that LSU is recruiting better than ever right now, and that there are some excellent high school QBs who are interested in LSU, and the QB queue just gets busier. My guess is that LSU will go after one high profile QB next year.

2010 possibles

Connor Wood

Terrance Broadway

Nick Montana

Yes. That Montana. That's just an early look, and I'd say Notre Dame probably feels pretty solid with Montana. But since Broadway is from Baton Rouge, if he has a great senior season there's a very good chance LSU lands yet another great dual-threat QB in the 2010 class.

LSU may be entering an era where QBs sign understanding that they may only get one year as the starter unless something happens to the studs in front of them - like the NFL draft or an unfortunate injury. Sounds a bit like an elite football program to me.

So. Here's what that could look like. I've put them in the order I think they're most likely to play.

2009: #1 JJ and Shep; #2 Hatch; RS Garrett; Lee transfers

2010: #1 Shep; #2 JJ (jr); #3 Garrett; RS Broadway

2011: #1 Shep (jr); #2 JJ (sr); #3 Garrett (soph); #4 Broadway

2012: Too far out. But if Shep is drafted as a Jr? Interesting.

Combine the QB outlook with LSU's other skill positions and you see why 2010 and 2011 look like very exciting years for LSU football.

It's crowded at QB this spring. I think it gets a little less crowded by the Washington game. But all in all, I see a very bright future for LSU at the QB position.

SOAPBOX: Sober Analysis

LSU 26, Auburn 21

Since I'm "late to need" on this edition of the Soapbox, I'm going to skip all the obvious stuff. I'm not going to recap the scary first half, the fateful concussion, the details of the amazing rebirth of J. Lee, the Heisman-like performance of Charles Scott, or the ballsy play calling of Miles and Crowton.

Instead, I'm going to focus on one thing. What, if anything, do we know now about the LSU quarterback situation. And who should "start" against Mississippi State this weekend.

All of the positive attention is focused on Jarrett Lee right now. And he deserves it. He had a fantastic second half after stinking up Jordan-Hare in the first.

Any LSU fan paying attention was cringing during halftime at the thought that Miles and Crowton might actually decide to play Lee again after he threw that really bad pick-six. That was a horrid pass. Face it - we were all calling for his head and hoping like hell Jordan Jefferson was maturing fast!

But Lee was a completely different QB in the second half. His throws had zip and purpose and his confidence was sky high. What's more, Lee looked like he'd been there before. Many times before, in fact. He looked poised and completely in control. And he threw some very nice passes.



So Lee is the man now, correct? Well, not so fast.

Jarrett Lee had a great second half. That does not erase his first half. Nor does it erase the fact that he's still a redshirt freshman.

Lee's second half also doesn't erase the fact that Andrew Hatch, while not lighting up the night with his passing, was playing a pretty good football game on his own, particularly with his legs. Hatch ended half a game with 40 net yards rushing and some of those yards involved some pretty nifty moves and very good downfield vision. Take away two sacks, and I think his total is closer to 51 yards.

So, if Hatch is healthy on Saturday, who gets the start? And does it matter?

I'll answer the second question first. Yes. It does matter. It's not everything. If both quarterbacks are healthy, they likely both get equal PT. But the starter is the front runner. He's the guy the coaches have the most confidence in. And that WILL matter to both of these guys. Maybe most to Jarrett Lee. If Hatch is full speed and Lee gets the start, the coaches are telling Lee that he's stepped into the next level. It just may be the confidence-building event that turns this redshirt freshman into an above average SEC quarterback by season's end.



Of course, it also tells Andrew Hatch that he's had his chance, and as luck would have it, his injury gave Lee some daylight and the kid took advantage. Hatch has to know that Lee's arm is stronger and his upside is higher. So it won't come as a surprise to him, but he'll still be disappointed at losing his chance to win the job outright.

So, yes. I think it does matter. It's not everything, but it's certainly important.

Who starts? I think it's Lee. Two reasons.

First, LSU needs a deep passing threat from it's QB more than it needs good running skills. Lee runs well enough to evade the sack. And the LSU RB cadre is good enough (understatement) to carry the rushing game.

Secondly, as I hinted before, I think Lee has earned the right at a chance to take the job for good. Hatch has had three starts. He's looked adequate, if wanting on throws past 15 yards. Now Lee gets his shot.

But this opens up another idea. If Hatch is hurt, what about Jordan Jefferson? Does he get significant PT?



I think he does if LSU puts the game away in the third or fourth quarter by 3 touchdowns or more. If not, then I don't think Miles and company will be able to risk the game in the hands of a kid who more than likely does not have the full offense at his disposal.

If Mississippi State keeps the game within reach, say less than 17 points, I don't see Jefferson sniffing the field until the final minutes, if at all.

So, the most important thing that can happen, assuming Hatch is injured, is that LSU crushes Mississippi State on Saturday night. Because, first of all, it would be fun to watch. And, second of all, if Hatch is injured, Jefferson needs some quality PT against an SEC defense.

Back to Lee. What do I expect? I expect some turbulence. I hope for the best, but I expect he's going to throw some more interceptions, and mishandle a few game situations, and generally make some folks wonder why they were so high on him.

Then, he's going to play lights out, and throw 40 yard laser beams to LaFell and Byrd and Toliver in full stride. All in the same game. Because that's what young QBs generally do. They play inconsistently.

It's up to the coaching staff to keep his head on straight and call the plays that help him succeed the most.

I'm optimistic about Lee. I have a feeling he might take advantage of this next game to put some serious distance between himself and Hatch.

But I'm not expecting it. Instead, I'm expecting some more turbulence.

And I'm expecting this fella to smooth all that out like a freight train on a copper penny...

(EARLY) SUNDAY SOAPBOX: Inexperienced QBs

There's a lot of nail-biting going on among LSU fans and media regarding the Tigers' quarterback situation. Ryan Perrilloux finally placed the last straw on the camel's back, and I personally think most of the consternation is about what might have been with Perrilloux at the helm - not what is to be without him.

I have no stomach for what might have been. Doesn't matter. Perrilloux will probably have a great year at Jax State, and probably generate a bunch of media stories. In some of those stories, Les Miles will probably be second guessed for dismissing Perrilloux. Whatever. He was more patient than I would've been. But, regardless, it's a useless exercise.

So I'd rather focus on what is to be. Since neither of the most probable starters have significant playing time under their belts, it's tough to predict. But perhaps a couple of analogues could at least provide some insight.

Before I begin, though, a disclaimer. I'M NOT PREDICTING ANYTHING. I'm not making direct comparisons between these quarterbacks or teams. I'm just offering what I think are interesting analogues - that is to say parrallel but not identical situations.

SAM BRADFORD, Oklahoma Sooners

In 2007, Oklahoma Sooners' head coach Bob Stoops had a QB situation similar to LSU's this year. His Big 12-winning senior QB was gone, and he was left to choose between junior backup Joey Halzle and RS freshman Sam Bradford. Bradford won the job after fall camp and went on to have a great year. But was that an expectation going into the season? No. Absolutely not. Bradford looked good in camp, but I can't find anything that said he crushed Halzle for the job, nor did he look like he was about to have a record breaking season. He simply looked solid.

Bradford was not a highly-sought recruit out of high school. In fact, Rivals rated him as a 3 Star while Scout barely gave him a 4 Star rating. As near I can tell, he had offers from Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Iowa State. Basically, he was a regional recruit. This is the same recruiting class as Mitch Mustain and Matthew Stafford. Bradford was Rivals' #12 pro-style QB.

So how good was Bradford's year? He broke the freshman QB record for touchdowns. He completed 69.5% of his passes for 3121 yards, 36 TDs and only 8 interceptions. Um. That's sorta good. Now. Some of that has to do with the offense surrounding Bradford. And Oklahoma's schedule wasn't the toughest in the nation last year - Sagarin had them ranked 44th in his end-of-year strength of schedule rankings. But, the bottom line is that Bradford had a friggin' great year as a redshirt freshman.

JIMMY CLAUSEN, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame had a meltdown season last year. Prior to winning their last two games of the season, the Irish were 1-9 behind highly touted freshman QB Jimmy Clausen.

If there was a freshman QB anywhere in the country who was expected to make a decent showing, it was probably Jimmy Clausen, who was the trophy of the 2006/7 recruiting class - if he did say so himself. He was the #1 QB on Rivals and a five star in the same recruiting class as LSU's Jarrett Lee (who was the #7 pro-style recruit). In Clausen's defense, he was a true freshman captaining one of the highest profile teams in college football against the 24th toughest schedule in the nation last year.

Clausen had a rough go. He completed only 56% of his passes for 7 TDs and 6 interceptions. Sure, Clausen probably made a bunch of mistakes that helped lead to such a poor showing. But, Notre Dame's entire offense sucked. Period. The Irish rushed for a mere 75 yards per game, which was almost last in the nation. And their passing game was practically last in the nation as well.

There are alibis, I guess. I've heard that Notre Dame lost an insane number of lettermen in 2006. So that sucks. But 3-9 with the worst offense in the history of Notre Dame football is not what Jimmy imagined as he announced his committment to the Irish in front of the College Football Hall of Fame...

Why Such Different Seasons?

So why did a Rivals 3 Star set records while the 5 Star jewel of the 2006/7 recruiting class fell flat on his face? Well, there is some low hanging fruit. First of all, Oklahoma was a much, much better team than Notre Dame. Secondly, Bradford had a full redshirt year under his belt. Clausen was a true freshman. And, third - there's Clausen's hair. That can't help...

But I think there's one factor that is possibly the most significant of all. Quarterback protection. The Sooner O-line only gave up 14 sacks all season long. That's one sack per game and tied for fifth best in the nation (LSU gave up 30 sacks last year.) So Bradford had ample time to find receivers, build confidence, avoid bad decisions, etc. And good pass protection opens up the running game, which in turn opens up the passing lanes. Synergy.

Clausen on the other hand was sacked 58 times. No, that's not a mistake. He hit the turf almost 5 times per game. That's last in the country. So Clausen, in contrast, had no time to read, make good decisions, and develop confidence. Instead, he spent a lot of time trying to avoid career-ending hits from some of the very best linebackers and defensive linemen in the country.

It's certainly not a definitive conclusion. But I think it's very telling that Bradford had an awesome year behind an offensive line that protected him very, very well. And Clausen had a horrible year behind an offensive line that didn't protect him at all. They were two inexperienced QBs whose success pivoted largely on the team, not their own individual skill sets and pedigrees.

Hatch, Lee and Jefferson

So there is hope for LSU this season . Most pundits think that LSU's O-line will be the best in the SEC, if not the country. If they can protect redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee or junior Andrew Hatch or even true freshman Jordan Jefferson, then any of these QBs should be able to develop some confidence and perform well. I'm hopeful one or more of LSU's QBs will have a year with results closer to Bradford's than Clausen's. And that would be somewhere around Matt Flynn's performance. And LSU won it all behind that kind of year. So I'm pretty friggin' OK with that.

In my opinion, it all rests on the shoulders of the O-Line. And this year - that's a good thing.