I've made a decision about Ole Miss' chances of upsetting LSU on Saturday. I've decided to scoff.
SCOFF, SCOFF, SCOFF!
I scoff at you, Ole Miss, and your 3-7 season and your NADA wins in the SEC and your "scrappy" play. You're not scrappy - you're CRAPPY!
And I scoff, not WITH you, but AT you.
I know, I know. Dandy Don is concerned. The fan forums seem to think that 18 points is too many. The Rebs have had a bye week. They have nothing to lose. They will leave everything on the field. It's a natural rivalry. Yeah, yeah, yeah....SCOFF!
Why tempt fate? Because FATE has nothing to do with it. Let's ignore emotion and superstition. Let's just reason this out.
Ole Miss doesn't start a single player who could break into LSU's starting lineup. NOT ONE. Don't believe me? Let's take a look-see. (No bleeding hearts past this point - I'm scoffing! It won't be pretty.)
Quarterbacks: Seth Adams seems OK initially - 1900 yards passing at 56%. Yet, in the last three games he's about 44% with 5 interceptions, no TDs, and less than 100 y/game. Against Northwestern State - you know, the Demons, powerhouse (not) of the Southland conference - he was 7 for 15 and a pick. No TDs. 113 yards. Nicholls State beat the Demons 58-0. FIFTY-EIGHT to ZIP. Ole Miss escaped with a 38-31 homecoming (I'm guessing) victory.
Perspective: Matt Flynn's basic numbers aren't that much better on a quick look, but Flynn has thrown 9 TDs for his 6 interceptions in the last three games. Prior to that, Flynn had to play two Heisman candidates, a slew of Top-20 teams, and battle an ankle injury. And against LA Tech - a team that Northwestern State won't DARE play - he threw for 237 yards in little more than HALF a game. I'm just going to leave Ryan Perrilloux out of this discussion to spare Ole Miss the pain. Seth Adams might not even make the LSU travel team, truth be told.
Running Backs: What about the man with so much namage - BenJarvus Green-Ellis? What the hell? Is he half Roman, half British? Do men really hyphenate their names in America? Anyway. He also looks reasonable at first BlushLook View-Glance. However.... He. Is. All. They. Have. Yes, he has 992 yards on the season. The entire team has only 1175! Yes, he averages 97 ypg. The entire team averages only 117.5!
Let's put that in perspective. Jacob Hester has only 706 yards and 71 ypg. But LSU has 2221 yards and 222 ypg. See the difference? LSU has SEVEN players with over 100 yards rushing this season, including Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux! BenLucky To-Play could not play for LSU.
Receivers: Mike Wallace has a respectable 71 ypg for the Rebs. Shay Hodge has 47. They've combined for 10 TDs. I have nothing snarky to say about that.
Perspective: None of LSU's receivers have 71 ypg. But three have over 50 ypg. And Doucet was out for a large chunk of the HEART of our SEC play. Neither Wallace or Hodge would likely play for LSU.
Offensive Line: Difficult to say, but I'm scoffing, so I'll say anyway. Ole Miss has given up 26 sacks this year. LSU 24. Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. Seriously - I have no idea, but I'm guessing that one of these guys MIGHT be able to prove me wrong. I Dare Them!
Defense: Let's just cut to the chase. LSU is number 1 in total defense. Ole Miss isn't in the Top 50. LSU gives up a mere 17 ppg. Ole Miss gives up 28 ppg. Ole Miss' strongest point is it's passing game and LSU is number 1 in passing efficiency defense in the nation. Is there a guy on Ole Miss' defense that you'd trade for a guy on LSU's defense.
Ole Miss and the Orgeron may have some home field mojo and some pure emotion going for them for about a quarter. After that - it's over. This game is probably more of a yawner than the LA Tech game. LA Tech probably would've beaten Ole Miss by 20 this year.
Ole Miss - I scoff in your general direction (HT: Monte Python).