Joshua Goes to Seattle Chapter 1, Where Joshua Sleeps and Drinks in Various Places

If you ever forget your drivers license, you can still get onto a plane without it. With an expired passport, apologetic smile and a charming personality, I was able to board my flight to the northwest. Thanks to the generosity of a friend, I was able to fly for free, albeit with a convoluted tour of every time zone in the United States. I left NOLA for Atlanta, departed Atlanta for Salt Lake City and fled Salt Lake City for Seattle.

The best money spent? $50 for some decent earphones for my ipod. The 4 hour flight from Atlanta to Salt Lake had lots of kids and other undesirables I was forced to travel with. With the dulcet tones of Flogging Molly, Morphine and Every Time I Die, slumber was easily found. Runner up on expenditures? The Beam and coke in the Salt Lake airport. It's my traditional Fall saturday tailgate drink and it was the first one of the season, in Mormon land no less. Sweet, sweet booze. Worst expenditure? The damned cab ride from Sea-Tac to the Queen Anne district downtown.

The Queen Anne district is a charming neighborhood that boasted a remarkable landmark, the hotel containing my bed. Oh, and the Space Needle was there as well. Also present were LSU fans on every block, like repeatedly spawning characters in a Grand Theft Auto Seattle landscape, as was a nice Irish pub who offered the usual succulent brews and comestibles. Not present were women who cared one iota for their appearance. I was saddened and offer that as the reason I returned to the hotel and fell asleep till midnight, when a partner in crime arrived.

My partner in crime is a terrifically intelligent fellow who also managed to leave his wallet in the cab. One Beam and RC made for travel later and it was tally ho for the airport to get the wallet. Upon our 1:30am return to our stomping grounds to meet other accomplices, we found that despite the 2am closing time we were not to be admitted to any bar as they were done serving at 1:30am. This completely mystified everyone from Louisiana.

So our merry band returned to the hotel. Drinking and planning ensued. Followed quickly like the restless sleep of a child on Christmas Eve.

New Podcast is Up on the Blog

Check the right panel for Two Minute Drill #2.  Will have it up on iTunes in the next day or so - having technical difficulties (i.e. I'm not good at this yet...)

As always, leave your feedback in the comments!

Early Impressions Around the Internets...

Since the game was so late, there's not a lot worth quoting out there.  Here are a couple of tidbits.

Randy Rosetta, The Advocate:

Sparked by quarterback Jake Locker’s 321-yard passing night and Chris Polk’s 90 yards rushing, Washington dissected the defense for 478 total yards — more than they allowed in any game a year ago.

Wow.  Just, wow.  That's more than Florida and Georgia, who put up over 50 points on LSU and the co-coordinator system.  Thanks for the perspective, Randy.  Ouch.

Bob Condotta, Seattle Times:

The Washington Huskies have come a long way under new coach Steve Sarkisian.


That was evident in the glorious first few minutes of their season opener Saturday night against Louisiana State.

Richard Pittman, ATVS

Jordan Jefferson had a pretty nice night. He started 1 for 6 but after that went 10 for 13 with 3 touchdowns and zero INTs. He was also effective with his legs and had an ATVSQBPI of 10.2 yards per play

 I agree - statistically, Jefferson did fine.  (ATVSQBPI is Pittman's own QB rating formula).  Subjectively, he looked like the young sophomore with minimal experience that he is.  Folks will take solace that he doesn't throw interceptions (because that's the best way to compare him to Lee).  Personally, I want to see Jefferson taking some chances, standing in the pocket longer, and firing to Lafell and Toliver at a more frequent clip.  He should be comfortable doing that by Georgia.

John Berkowitz, UW Dog Pound

The difference in this one was big plays and penalties. The Pac 10 refs did their best SEC imitiation by questionably penalizing the Huskies for 11 penalties for 85 yards in comparison to 3 for 35 for the Tigers. The ofifciating (sic) as usual in the Pac 10 was bad and had a anti UW slant.

Well, from a different perspective, LSU was being held flagrantly all night long, and I don't remember a single holding penalty against UW.  I will agree that the officiating was shoddy.  Biased against UW?  Maybe LSU is just more disciplined at this stage of the season.

Here's a YouTube vid of the last two drives - sorta painful to watch Washington just waltz down the field on the LSU defense in the last 2 mins of the game.

DISAPPOINTING WIN: LSU 31, Washington 23

I don't want to overreact.  A win is a win, especially on the road against a BCS school with a proud heritage and something to prove.  But there are some clear reasons to be disappointed in this win.  In my opinion, LSU's performance tonight raised more questions than it answered. 

(DISCLAIMER:  I'm not discounting that Washington is probably a better team than some expected them to be.  But I don't think they'll be in the top half of the Pac-10 this year, so I'm going to assume they're close enough to expectations for the season - improved, but not awesome.)

But first, just to stay positive, let's give a couple of answers to questions.  The first one is, "Will Terrance Toliver have a breakout season?"  I think the answer is yes.  He led all receivers in the game with 117 yards and 2 TDs on 4 catches.  Most impressively, Toliver's yards after catch (I don't have the number) were very good.  Teams now have to honor Toliver (not that they weren't aware of him before), watch Lafell, and there more arrows in the quiver that were not revealed tonight.

Another question that seems to at least be trending to an acceptable answer is, "Will LSU be able to return to the 2007 level of advantageous turnover ratio?"  LSU had one fumble (Charles Scott) that was just barely a fumble (last minute strip), but a fumble nonetheless.  Conversely, the Tigers got a pick-six and a fumble recovery.  That's a nice change of pace from last year, and I'll just leave that right where it is.

I think that's about all I can say positively about tonight's game.  There are a lot of questions, but let's just choose 5 for now.

1.  "Is John Chavis really a great Defensive Coordinator?" I don't know.  But, if you read the press and message boards about Chavis' hire, you'd think this couldn't possibly be a serious question.  He has been hailed as the savior of LSU defenses.  The genius who will bring LSU back to national defensive prowess.  Yet his defense just gave up 478 yards and 23 points to a team with a patchwork offensive line.  Yep - 478 yards.  25 first downs.  And LOTS of big plays given up.  LSU's vaunted secondary, the one that Coach Miles says has 3 future NFL first rounders in it, just gave up 320 yards passing.   Dayum.  Yes, Jake Locker is a pretty good QB.  "320 yards and 2 TDs against future NFL first round draft picks" good?  Personally - I don't think so.   Anyway - this is a big, fat, nasty open question as of right now.  If LSU cannot rush the passer, we, as LSU fans, are in for a long, disappointing year.  I know this because I lived it last year.  And if we repeat last year, then tell me why Mallory and Peveto got such a bad rap again?

2.  "Is LSU's offensive line going to be able to handle SEC play?"  Again, I thought the only question was at center.  But Washington's DL held LSU's awesome RB stable to less than 150 yards rushing.  And Jefferson had very few opportunities to check down and choose receivers unmolested.  I know Washington has a couple of really good DLinemen.  But so does every SEC team, and some non-SEC teams, on the LSU schedule.  This is another very troubling question.

3.  "Does the coaching staff trust Jordan Jefferson?"  I was very surprised at the lack of balance in the play calling.  Consequently I was also suprised at how predictable and vanilla the offense was.  Call me crazy (go ahead, I'll wait........thanks, you may be right), but when you're averaging 16.5 yards per reception against a team that has a very young, very weak secondary, then shouldn't you target that youth/weakness a bit more?  Yet the pass to run ratio was 19/29.   And Jefferson did not attempt many throws over the middle (but when he did (and completed them) they went for big gains).  So, I'm wondering if the coaches are just afraid to turn Jefferson into the next Lee by asking too much of him too early?  Maybe.  Is that a good call - being that risk averse I mean?  We'll call that Question 3b.

4.  "Was this game indicative of our special teams this year, or an aberration?"  Kick returns were pedestrian at less than 6 yards per.  Only one punt returned (not a great sign for the defense), and it was only 9 yards.  And Derek Helton's inaugural punting stint ended with a 32 yard average and a long of 38 yards.  I don't care how good his hang time is. 

5.  Finally - "Is Jordan Jefferson going to last the season?"  By this question, I mean two things.  First, he took some hard shots today.  It's not that he's not tough, it's just that he's tall and not stocky and seems to not mind sacrificing himself for an extra yard.  He got rocked twice tonight, and I don't think he'll be able to withstand that all season long.  Second, he really looked wide-eyed and awkward throwing the football tonight.  He made some good decisions regards throwing the ball away, but he also nearly got a couple of forced throws picked.  End of the day, lot's of balls thrown behind or in inconvenient places for the receivers.  So, I'm wondering if he can become the solid passing threat that any contemporary offense needs their QB to be?  He just did not pass the eye test throwing the ball tonight.

These five are not comforting questions, and there are more to be asked and answered.

I'm relieved the Tigers got the win.  But (and maybe it's just me) it sorta feels like a tie.  Like, we didn't lose - but we didn't really have a great result either.

I am actually concerned enough about the Vandy game now that I'm going to spend some time getting to know the Commodores in more detail. 

Just to close on a positive note - Josh Downs, from what I could tell, looked like a man out there on the defensive line in the second half.  Amazing that he's a true freshman.  He's going to be a Glenn Dorsey kinda guy, and it may not take him all that long to get there.

LSU @ WASHINGTON, Sat, August 5th: A Massacre

Kickoff: 7:30 Pacific (9:30 Central)

Weather Outlook: Cloudy Thurs thru Sat, 60% chance of showers on gameday, but clearing towards kickoff. Highs in mid 60s, lows in mid 50s, light winds.

If you've found our little blog, you already know the standard Husky stuff: new coaching staff, winless 2008, athletic QB, nice venue, guardedly optimistic fanbase.

Stuff you may not know?

-- The Huskies were Co-National Champs in 1991 with Miami, and have 15 conference titles, including winning the very first PAC-10 title in 1916, and their most recent was in 2000 (3-way with Oregon and Oregon State).

-- The Huskies are 15-14-1 all-time in bowl games with their last appearance in the 2002 Sun Bowl (24-34 loss to Purdue).

-- Sarkesian is the 27th Head Coach of the program. Don James took the Huskies to the National Championship in 1991 in his 17th year as Head Coach.

-- Washington is 2-5 against SEC teams all-time, with wins against Florida and Mississippi St, and losses to Alabama (x4) and LSU (x1). Interestingly, the Mississippi St game was actually a loss, but the Bulldogs had to forfeit the game later due to an ineligible player.

(Incidentally, LSU is 12-3 against PAC-10 teams all-time with a winning or even record against all teams they've played except - wait for it - STANFORD! Played them once, lost 24-14 in 1977 Sun Bowl.)

-- Big name NFL players: Warren Moon (QB) and Steve Emtman (DL).

Enough of that. :) What does it all mean? Washington has a proud football heritage, has a good history of competing nationally and in their conference, and hasn't done anything since about 2002. And by haven't done anything, I mean they're 25-59 (.423) from 2002-2008. It's a pretty stark turnaround and their fanbase has to be hurting mightily.

MATCHUPS

Washington's Offense vs. LSU's Defense. Jake Locker has wheels and is a great athlete. Is he a great college QB? Washington fans will find out this year, because he sat out most of last year with an injury. In Locker, LSU faces what some folks call a poor man's Tim Tebow.  Whatever.  I don't think Locker has anywhere near Tebow's influence on his teammates, his power, his finesse throwing the football. Personally, I think Locker looks like a nifty runner for a QB (an upgraded Andrew Hatch) with a decent arm.  The problem for Washington is that they don't have enough high quality skill players to keep LSU from putting a spy on Locker almost every play.

Without going into a roster exercise, let me wrap it up with the following sample quotes from an article (Scout, $$) I read recently about the last Washington scrimmage prior to this week's LSU prep:

The offense looked out of sync and very bad at times. Jake Locker was
rushed and receivers dropped balls.

And about the offensive line:

It is not the most imposing of lines, but the left side of the line seems
experienced enough and may be able to do the job. However, the right side is going to get tested, and oh are they young.

By contrast, LSU's defense is going to be vastly improved over last season. Hell, the defense was vastly improved by the time the Chik-fil-A Bowl rolled around.  If Washington's defense (a defense Locker and the offense see every day) can dominate in a scrimmage, imagine the challenge LSU's defense is going to present. Containing Locker will be the order of the day on Saturday, because he's not going to have time to throw and will get flushed out of the pocket a lot. I think Alem, Levingston, and the LBers are going to be visiting Locker all evening and he's going to throw a couple of picks.

Advantage LSU.

LSU's Offense vs. Washington's Defense. The Husky defense is likely going to challenge LSU's offense in the first half. The defensive line is fairly stout, led by Daniel Te'o Nieshiem. There's also a good bit of depth there relative to the rest of the team. The linebackers seem solid as well. But the Huskies are not boasting a very good defensive backfield, and have significant vulnerabilities at cornerback. I look for LSU to try to establish the run early and wear down the defensive line. But the key, in my opinion, will be pass protection for Jordan Jefferson. If JJ has time, he will be able to pick the Washington secondary apart. Terrance Toliver, with his length, should have a coming out party of sorts. The wildcard here will be turnovers and penalties. If LSU maintains it's stingy fumble-free offense, and Jefferson can avoid interceptions, I don't see how Washington's secondary can contain the weapons that LSU will present.

Advantage LSU.

Special Teams. I have no idea. Helton and Jasper are getting good reviews from the coaches. And their fall stats, at least what's been released, sound good. Washington's kicker seems to be making his coaches happy. I think Trindon Holliday is always a threat, and Ron Brooks will probably have a good year returning as well. But I'm not willing to call this one.

We'll call it even.

Intangibles. Both of these teams are hungry. Very hungry. UW is sick and tired of mediocrity. You can sense it on their message boards, and you only have to look at their football history to know that the last 6 or 7 years have been gut wrenching for true Husky fans. Likewise, the team and coaches are going to be out to prove that a PAC-10 team can handle an SEC powerhouse. On the other sideline, LSU will be looking to take their 8-5 frustrations out on their first opponent. This will be a grudge game, and the grudge won't be against Washington, it'll be against the memory of last season. Washington fans and players may not fully understand this because it's a different perspective. Theirs is the perspective LSU had during the Archer/Hallman years. It's hard to understand how bad 8-5 feels when your team just went 0-12. Anyway - both teams hungry, but LSU has more to prove and more to lose.

Advantage LSU.

WRAP-UP: LSU jumps on the Huskies early thanks to turnovers and big plays. Washington makes a short run to get it closer, but LSU is ahead by 14 by halftime.

Final score: 45-7 LSU.

SPOTLIGHT: Washington QB Jake Locker

If the Huskies have any chance of upsetting LSU in Seattle this weekend, that hope rests on the shoulders of their junior QB - Jake Locker.  After missing most of last season with an injured hand, Locker is healthy and back in charge of the Washington offense. 

U-Dub fans are high on Locker (in more ways than one, I must say).  I've done a fair amount of searching and reading and I cannot find many folks (media or fans) who have anything but adulation for the 6'3, 230lb signal caller.  So how good is he?  Well, I'll let you judge for yourself.  Let's take a look at his chronology so far.

HIGH SCHOOL

Locker was a four-year starter at 3A Ferndale High in Washington - CB as a freshman, QB the last three years.  In his senior year, he led his team to a 14-0 season and a State Championship and a #12 National Ranking in MaxPrep's 2005 final poll.  His stats are pretty good, nothing earth shattering.  It's tough to legitimately compare high school kids on stats alone, but since comparisons have been made between Locker and Tebow, here are Tebow's stats (senior year) for comparison.  Bottom line - Locker didn't throw an exceptional amount or exceptionally well, ran a lot (95.6 ypg in his senior year), and was the #4 Dual Threat QB in the 2005/6 recruiting class (Rivals).  Here's a HS vid if you want a look.



Jake Locker - Ferndale, W @ Rivals Video

FRESHMAN YEARS (2006, 2007)

Locker redshirted in 2006, working as the Service Team (scout team) QB.  In 2007, Locker started all but one game (California).  His signature game during the season came against Arizona, where he rushed for 157 yards, 2 TDs and completed 17/30 for 336 yards, 2 TDs and 2 ints.  Cumulatively, Locker had a modest year throwing and a strong year running - similar to his high school playing style. 

His stats for 2007 were:  Passing - 155/328, 2062yds, 14 TDs, 15 ints; Rushing - 172 carries, 986 yds, 13TDs.  Locker was the second leading rusher behind Louis Rankin, who gained 1294 yards.

Locker was showered with Freshman accolades in 2007, including Pac-10 Freshman of the Year.

Here's a video of a 95 or so yarder against Arizona.



And, if you have much more time, here are his 2007 highlights (5:56 seconds - get a drink!)



SOPHOMORE - 2008

Locker started the first four games of 2008 but sustained a broken thumb trying to throw a block in the Stanford game.  His 2008 stats over 4 games were:  Passing - 50/93, 512 yds, 1 TD, 0 ints;  Rushing - 56 carries, 180 yards, 3 TDs.  Locker actually grossed 275 yards rushing, but was sacked for 95 yards in just a little over three games.

THE GAME

Locker is clearly a very good running QB. But he's not a great passer. He's not horrid. And we won't know how much he's improved until Saturday night. But I think passing is where Tebow and Locker show the most contrast. For all of Tim Tebow's prowess as a powerful runner, he's a very accurate and efficient passer as well. Locker - not so much. At least, not in the past.

Locker can hurt LSU with his feet. He's fast and confident with the ball in has hands, has great vision and can cut very well. Washington's new offensive scheme is supposedly going to force Locker to stand tall in the pocket more this year. We'll see. From his videos, his instinct will be to trust his wheels and bolt at the first sign of pressure.

The key to containing Locker will be for the defensive ends to pressure him, the defensive tackles to slow him by clogging the middle, and the second level to get him on the turf as soon as possible. Locker won't be shy about getting hit. But he'll likely be predictable. And, while he's not a deep ball threat, if he's successful running, he'll be able to turn short passes into to big gains by enticing the secondary to cheat up towards the box in support of the run defense.

End of the day, I think Locker will have a great first quarter running, maybe a great first half. But I think LSU's defense will adjust very quickly and shut him down. And that will lead to taking advantage of Locker's biggest potential liability - his accuracy.

Locker threw more picks than TDs and was sub-50% in his freshman year. THAT DOES NOT mean he won't have progressed a great deal since then. We don't know. However, I'd much rather see Locker trying to throw on 3rd and 7 than feeling free to scramble on 2nd and 2. So, if LSU can force long third down situations, I think Locker will be most vulnerable and the Tiger defense will get a chance to pick a couple off.

One thing we do know for sure is that Washington does not have the kind of offensive line that will provide Locker with a safe 5 second pocket inside which to check down. There are a couple of strong starters on the line, but overall the squad is young, inexperienced and shallow in replacements. By the second half, LSU will have worn them out and Locker will be attempting to dodge white jerseys on a regular basis.

WRAPUP

Jake Locker is a very good college QB and he's got a chance to be a great QB if he has an improved junior season throwing the football. At the end of the football game, I think his stats won't show how good he probably is. Mostly, because I think our defense is going to be all over him in the second half.

Sorta like this, only hopefully not quite so late...