Tuesday, February 12, 2008

How Strong is the SEC? Strongest Ever?

In an effort to binge post, here's another longish entry. This was motivated by a comment made by one of my compatriots on TigerForums. Paraphrasing, he said that he thought the SEC was the strongest it had ever been.

This sounded right to me, but I wondered. So I looked into it. Here's what I found.

Bottom line up front: the SEC was most dominant in the late 50s through mid 70s, but is in a resurgence at the present. Also, Bama has been most consistent in last 50 years, but LSU, UF, UGA, Tenn, and Auburn have a great record of performance as well.

DISCLAIMER: I decided to use AP Poll Top 20 data from 1958 to the present (because I don't have unlimited time and I just love the year 1958, don't you?). Top 20 because the AP didn't do Top 25 before the 80s. Used the UPI during the 8 years or so that the AP only put out a Top 10. Included both teams tied for 20th when applicable. Only included teams who were in the conference at the time of the poll (dropped Tulane and GT when applicable, added SC and Arky in '91).

I used the following site to find the poll data.
http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/p...present_h.html

And this site to find SEC history.
http://www.secfootball.itgo.com/history.html

Here's the percentage of SEC teams that ended the season in the Top 20 for each "decade" between 1958 and today. Percentage is based on opportunities for Top 20 divided by achievement of End of Year Top 20 - cumulative across the decade.

% of SEC Teams in Top 20 - Last 50 years

1998 - 2007: 36%
1988 - 1997: 32%
1978 - 1987: 31%
1968 - 1977: 40%
1958 - 1967: 38%

So, right away, you can see that the SEC was "deepest" and most competitive nationally between 1958 and 1977 (very roughly). Big drop off from 1978 to 1997 (very roughly). And we are in a resurgence.

Here's the Team performance during that period.

Team/#1/Top 5/Top 10/Top 20

Alabama/5/14/26/33
LSU/3/7/14/26
Florida/2/7/14/25
Georgia/1/7/16/26
Tennessee/1/7/14/26
Auburn/0/5/14/27
Ole Miss/0/4/6/14
Kentucky/0/0/1/4
Miss State/0/0/0/4
Arkansas**/0/0/0/3
Ga Tech**/0/0/0/2
S. Carolina**/0/0/0/2
Vanderbilt/0/0/0/0
Tulane**/0/0/0/0
** Teams were not in SEC for the entire period. Non-SEC rankings were NOT included.

Right away, Bama sticks out as absolutely dominant until the last 12 years. I don't have time to research it, but I wonder if any team in the country has ever had that kind of success over as long a period of time.

Basically, Bama practically doubles the stats of LSU, UF, Tenn, UGA and Auburn.

Look how similar LSU, UF, Tenn, UGA and Auburn are! Basically, six SEC teams have been in the Top 20 over 50% of the time over the last 50 years. I'd be interested in someone else's analysis of the Big 10/12 or Pac 10. Wonder what the other teams look like.

Standout Years (my opinion, non LSU-biased):

1959: #2 Ole Miss, #3 LSU, #5 UGA, #10 Bama, #19 UF (4 in Top 10)
1961: #1 Bama, #4 LSU, #5 Ole Miss, #13 GA Tech (3 in Top 5!)
1965: #4 Bama, #7 Tenn, #12 UF, #14 LSU, #15 UGA, #17 Ole Miss, #18 UK (7 in Top 18)
1971: #4 Bama, #7 UGA, #9 Tenn, #11 LSU, #12 Auburn, #15 Ole Miss (6 in Top 20)
1983: #3 Auburn, #4 UGA, #6 UF, #15 Bama (3 in Top 6)
1992: #1 Bama, #8 UGA, #10 UF, #12 Tenn, #16 Ole Miss (5 in Top 16)
1996: #1 UF, #9 Tenn, #11 Bama, #12 LSU (4 in Top 12)
1997: #4 UF, #7 Tenn, #10 UGA, #11 Auburn, #13 LSU (5 in Top 13)
1999: #8 Bama, #9 Tenn, #12 UF, #13 Miss St, #16 UGA, #17 Arky (6 in Top 17)
2001: #3 UF, #4 Tenn, #7 LSU, #13 S. Car (3 in Top 7)
2007: #1 LSU, #2 UGA, #12 Tenn, #13 UF, #15 Auburn (2 in Top 2, 5 in Top 15)

Other notes:

Ole Miss: 12 Top 20 teams in 14 years between 1958 and 1971. Only 2 more in the next 36 years.

LSU Dry Spells: 1974-1981 (McClendon, Rein, Stovall), 1989-1995 (Archer, Hallman, DiNardo).

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